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Die Transition Bewegung

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Präsentation zum Thema: "Die Transition Bewegung"—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Die Transition Bewegung
1 My name’s Ben Brangwyn. I work in a small charity that recently started up to support the efforts of communities to go through their transitions to a lower energy future in response to the three pressures of Peak Oil, Climate Change and economic contraction. Our mission is to inspire, encourage, connect, support and train communities as they adopt and adapt the transition model to urgently rebuild resilience within their community and drastically reduce carbon emissions in all that they do. Von der Ölabhängigkeit zur lokalen Resilienz Super Transition Wochenende Frank Wolf Hermann Paulenz Transition Netzwerk

2 Das sind wir

3 Agenda Peak Oil und seine Auswirkungen Klima Wandel
Schrumpfende Wirtschaft PO + KW + SW ≠ “business as usual” Antworten auf versch. Ebenen global, national, lokal, persönlich Eure Visionen Was ist eine Transition Town? Beispiele und bis jetzt Erreichtes Fragen und Antworten, Diskussion RESILIENZ- Spiel 3 Here’s what we’ll cover today – plus any other things that you want to know about and I can help with. I want to focus in on Peak Oil and how it has affected countries and communities in the past, and now. Regarding Climate Change, we need to cover some of the limitations of the official IPCC report and the consequences of that, particularly in the light of what the climate scientists have learned in the last four years. We’ll talk about some initiatives operating at the global, national and local levels that will give the Transition Town efforts more weight. I want to show that when you weave Peak Oil and Climate Change together, the inescapable conclusions involve “relocalisation”, and how that determines the kind of adaptations and mitigations we need to design and how “resilience” is a crucial element of these solutions. Then I’ll talk about the loose set of guidance material that we call the Transition Model and how it’s being applied to communities around the country and beyond. I’ll also cover some of the specific actions that transition initiatives are taking so that you can see how it might work here, in your community. Then we’ll have Q&A First I want to briefly talk about resilience. “Resilience” is the ability of a system to withstand shocks from outside and maintain its equilibrium. A person on a tightrope, 200 feet from the ground totally unresilient – one little push and he’s plummeting. However, an individual with both feet planted firmly on the ground, braced for any disrupting influences to his balance will take some tipping over. Much more resilient. We need to think about resilience in all our key systems, food, energy, community cohesion. I’m going to illustrate some rather dramatic lack of resilience in some of these systems – you may already be aware of them yourselves.

4 Peak Oil Wir werden Öl niemals “aufbrauchen”
Wir brauchen das billige, einfach förderndbare Öl auf Öl ist nötig für Industrielle Entwicklung Landwirtschaft Wirtschaft Bevölkerung Die Hälfte ist verbraucht… Es wird abwärts gehen 4 First of all, a quick explanation of peak oil. Peak Oil recognises that we are not close to running out of oil. However, we are close to running out of easy-to-get, cheap oil. Very close. That means we’re about to go into energy decline – that extended period when, year on year, we have decreasing amounts of oil to fuel our industrialised way of life. If you’re having conversations about when the oil runs out, that’s the wrong discussion to be having. There will always be oil left in the ground – for a start you can’t extract all that’s there and also ponder on a fact that the economists conveniently gloss over – regardless of how much money you can make selling oil, once it takes an oil barrel's worth of energy to extract a barrel of oil, it’s going to get left in the ground. Often people think about oil and the economy in the same way that we think of fuel in a car – but that’s very misleading. In a car, if you’ve half a tank, you’re fine. ¾ empty, you’re fine. Just a pint, you should be ok. Then all of a sudden, it comes to a juddering halt. That’s not how economies or the social systems built on cheap and abundant oil will respond. We know that because we’ve had experience of this before – we’ll go onto that more later on. The key concepts and implications of this are as follows: of all the fossil fuels, oil is uniquely energy dense and easy to transport (Note to presenter: you can illustrate this by the fact that it takes a teaspoonful of oil to move a large car 100 metres – if anyone has pushed a car that far, they’ll know what that can be like. Then ask what it might be like if they had to do it at 36mph!) ever-increasing amounts of oil have fuelled the growth of industrial economies. all the key elements of industrial societies - transportation, manufacturing, food production, home heating, construction - are totally reliant on oil. understanding the depletion pattern of oil fields is crucial. There is a consistent pattern to the rate of extraction of oil - and this applies to individual fields, to an oil region, to a country and indeed to the entire planet - namely, the first half of the oil is easy to extract and high quality (sweet crude). However, once about half the recoverable oil has been pumped out, further extraction starts getting more expensive, slower, more energy intensive and the oil is of a lower quality (sour crude). this pattern means that the flow of oil to the market, which has been steadily increasing over the past 150 years, will peak. After that, every successive year will see an ever-diminishing flow of oil, as well as an increasing risk of interruptions to supply. a growing body of independent oil experts and oil geologists have calculated that the peak will occur between 2006 and 2012 (a few years of hindsight is required in order to confirm the peaking point – peak oil is only visible in the rear view mirror). And in fact, depending on how you measure it, we could well have hit that peak in the summer of 2008. technological advances in oil extraction and prospecting will have only a minor effect on depletion rates. As an example, when the US (lower 48) hit their oil production peak in 1972, the rate of depletion over the next decades was high, despite a significant wave of technological innovations. It’s difficult to overstate the potential impacts this may have, expecially in the more developed countries. To understand the degree to which this will affect the industrial world, here is the opening paragraph of executive summary of a report prepared for the US government in 2005 by an agency of experts in risk management and oil analysis: "The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking." To take the key areas in turn and examine their oil dependence: Industry – oil is used as a raw material, to transport that material, to process it in the factories, to heat it, bend it, mix it, fix it to something else, transport it to market. That’s the obvious one. Less obvious is… Food – industrial agriculture is a very inefficient way of turning oil into food. I’ve never seen this data disputed – it take 9 calories of oil to produce one calorie of food. If that sounds bizarre, ponder on the process of growing in industrial agriculture. You need oil to plough the fields (which, btw, releases vast amounts of carbon – far better to implement no plough growing), to run the machine that plants the seeds, to power the infrastructure and machines that irrigate the land, oil is the feedstock for pesticides, natural gas for fertilizer, oil is needed to run the machines that harvest, process and package the foodstuff. It’s then moved to market in an oil dependant transportation system. The only way these system could have arisen is on the back of cheap and abundant oil. Economics – the main economic system operating in the world is based on debt and interest. People, firms or countries borrow money to buy things, start and run businesses, or to pay for public works. They have to repay the loan - the “principal” plus interest. The total repaid is then recycled into loans, for which interest is charged and has to get paid back. With the ever- increasing loans and ever-increasing amount of interest, the only way that system can work is in an expanding economy. It’s an open question right now about how this system will cope with peak oil and what looks like being peak energy generally. We’ve seen the effect on the economy of reduced oil supply – in the 1970’s there were two Middle East wars (the Yom Kippur war and the Iran/Iraq war) and in both of these there was a significant reduction of supply. The price shot through the roof (to the equivalent of $120 per barrel) and there were world wide recessions. At that point there was the 3-day week in the UK (though not at my school!). Now those were mere blips on the relentless upward march of oil coming into the industrialised economies. What will happen if this is more than a blip? Something that’s going to be a relentless downward graphline? We simply don’t know – we’re in uncharted territory… Current evidence suggests we’re on a plateau, possibly the peak, and that we’ll never get more than about 87 million barrels a day…

5 Peak Oil – eine Theorie? 98 Öl Produzenten existieren
5 Just as talking about when the oil is going to run out is the wrong conversation, if you hear someone talking about a peak oil “theory”, then it’s likely to be a somewhat misleading conversation. Actually, the term “theory” itself is troublesome – often people use to imply an unproven assertion. Well, let’s see how much of an unproven assertion it is. Looking at a map of the top 98 oil producing countries of the world, we see that…

6 Peak Oil – eine Theorie? Für 64 Post-Peak Produzenten keine Theorie
…64 are past peak. There are question marks over the two biggest producers - Russia (looks like it’s peaked now after recovering from the severe downturn that resulted from the collapse of the Soviet Union), and Saudi Arabia. Saudi is an interesting case. They may have actually hit peak, or may have artificially hit it – ie, deliberately capping production. Now, why would they do that? The King of Saudi was recently on record as saying that they intend to leave in the ground some of the oil they find now for future generations. There’s a saying in Saudi – “my father rode a camel, I drove a jeep, my son rides an aeroplane, his son will ride a camel”. It looks like they’re not going to let that happen, and they’ll keep some of that endowment for the generations to come. Their generations. Putin, in Russia, gives us some clues as to their intentions regarding oil – his dissertation written in earlier political days was about using the national resources of oil and gas for geo-political gain.

7 Peak Oil – Entdeckung US Entdeckung peakte in den 1930ern
Produktion peakte 1971 GB Entdeckung peakte1975 Produktion peakte 1999 Welt Entdeckung peakte in den 1960ern Produktion wird peaken in 20?? 7 There’s another way that we could have seen all this coming. It might seem obvious, but it’s worth saying. You have to find oil before you can extract it. And given that it takes a long time from discovery to actually pumping the oil out to the market, you’d expect oil production rates to match discovery rates but with a delay. The graph shows how most of the big discoveries were all in the 50s and 60s, and then it starts to decline. Meanwhile, production levels have been going up since the early 1900s. However, just as discovery peaked, so too will production, and then it will fall. How do we know that? We’ve seen it multiple times in many countries as shown in the earlier slide. Here are a couple of examples: US: discovery peaked in the 1930s – production peaked in 1971 UK: discovery peaked in 1975 – production peaked in 1999 World: discovery peaked in 1960s – production will peak in 20??

8 Peak Oil – Nutzenergie auf dem Weg nach unten
8 And if that wasn’t enough, the earlier peak oil analyses were a little bit optimistic in one key area – net energy. In any analysis of energy solutions, it’s key to think about “net energy”. That’s calculated by taking all the energy that the “solution” will produce, then subtracting all the energy involved in mining/making/producing/transporting it - leaving the actual energy truly made available by that solution. This applies to all sorts of things – renewable devices, large or small; conventional oil; unconventional fossil fuels; nuclear power. The first of the oil fields in Saudi Arabia and the US delivered massive net energy – 100:1 in the 1930’s. That means for every unit of energy you put into exploiting a field, they were getting 100 back. It’s the usual pattern – we go for the low- hanging fruit first. By the 1970’s, net energy for US fields was 30:1 and nowadays it’s around 11:1. This means that the slope downwards will be steeper than expected, matching the decline in net energy available to run our food, economic and transport systems. As Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, says, “We have to leave oil before oil leaves us”.

9 Peak Oil für Deutschland
Quelle: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe 9 The situation for gas for the UK doesn’t look that rosy either. This data is official, from the National Grid. The blue represents the gas endowment for the UK, principally the North Sea. The purple is the “we’ll get that if we’re lucky” – the upside – estimates for 2012 onwards. The black line represents demand in the UK. The red line is how we make up the shortfall between domestic production and actual consumption – we import it. Now that’s a problem. Here’s why: the official government planning documents state that they expect stable prices for gas in the foreseeable future… Now peak gas is a while ahead, but predicting prices of any fossil fuel these days is a fool’s game. This illustrates some of the problems we’re facing – the inertia in the large government systems that determine much of what happens in this country.

10 Peak Gas für Deutschland
Quelle: Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe 10 The situation for gas for the UK doesn’t look that rosy either. This data is official, from the National Grid. The blue represents the gas endowment for the UK, principally the North Sea. The purple is the “we’ll get that if we’re lucky” – the upside – estimates for 2012 onwards. The black line represents demand in the UK. The red line is how we make up the shortfall between domestic production and actual consumption – we import it. Now that’s a problem. Here’s why: the official government planning documents state that they expect stable prices for gas in the foreseeable future… Now peak gas is a while ahead, but predicting prices of any fossil fuel these days is a fool’s game. This illustrates some of the problems we’re facing – the inertia in the large government systems that determine much of what happens in this country.

11 UK energy balance 11 Stepping into the wider story of energy in the UK, this graph tells a troubling story – how the UK exploited its energy reserves with no thought for the future, selling our surpluses while the prices were very low, and then, when the surpluses weren’t there any more, importing oil at much higher prices. This touches on the UK’s economic prospects – we’re moving from an oil exporting economy to an economy that’s having to buy in masses of expensive oil. The impact on tax revenues and the balance of payments will be significant. In 2010, the incoming coalition government is saying that Britain’s financial situation is ''even worse than we thought'' and that the country will have to make savage spending cuts to bring its swelling deficit under control.

12 Peak Oil vs Peak Export Ölproduzenten werden reicher
Entwickeln ihre eigene Wirtschaft Mittlerer Osten wächst: 5-6% pa Russland wächst: 7% pa Erhöhen ihren Inlandsverbrauch Angeheizt durch Subventionen Weniger Öl verfügbar um es an andere zu verkaufen. Wie uns … 12 Getting back to peak oil, even if we speculate on when Peak Oil may actually occur, if you’re a net importer of oil (as we are in the UK), then it may not matter when global oil peaks. What matters is how much oil is flowing to us from the oil exporters. And that’s not looking too promising. Here’s why. A quick fact first of all. In the good old days, most of the oil – 80% – was owned by the oil companies and the other 20% was owned by the countries where the oil was deposited. That’s all changed now. Over 80% of all oil is owned by national companies – over the past decade, countries have exerted their sovereign rights and bought out (or thrown out) the oil companies and regained their oil. So, if you’re an oil producing country right now, you’re making a lot of money. Your oil is worth more on international markets than it ever has. So what are these countries doing with that money? They’re doing things that keep their population happy and keep them in power. They’re subsidising domestic oil which increases its usage, they’re building roads, factories, infrastructure, schools, airports. All that requires huge amounts of oil. And as domestic consumption goes through the roof, it leaves less for them to export. So if you’re a net importer, like Britain, it may not matter when Peak Oil occurs. If we hit Peak Exports, that’s the same thing. And the current analysis looks like that’s the case. Net exports reduced by 350,000 barrels per day between 2007 and 2008 (that’s about 0.5% - not much, but indicative)…

13 Peak Oil – wie sieht das aus?
Finaler Abstieg Beispiele: 1990er: Nord Korea 1990er: Kuba Jetzt: Arme Länder 13 So what will happen when Peak Oil starts to bite? What might it look like? Remember is that this is a terminal decline. It’s not like the fuel crises in 1973 (Yom Kippur war) and 1979 (Iran/Iraq war) – they were temporary and at that time we were discovering a lot more than we were using. As price goes up poorer countries will suffer. They just won’t be able to afford the oil. There have already been fuel riots during the recent price rises in the following countries: Indonesia, Angola, Nigeria, Guinea, Nepal, Yemen, Iraq. In Zimbabwe, black market oil was recently 10x official rate. Nicaragua was blacking out poorer communities between 7-10pm. Tanzania’s growth is being “suffocated” by high oil prices (they also handle oil for the landlocked states of Malawi , Rwanda , the Eastern Congo , Burundi and Uganda). There are three examples that may give us an indication of what it’s like. First, Cuba and North Korea – they both relied massively on the Soviet Union for their supplies of oil, machinery, technology and financial support among many other things. Both had highly oil dependent societies, particularly for food production. Within 5 years of the fall of the Soviet bloc, their oil imports had reduced dramatically – Cuba’s by 40%, Korea’s by over 50%. The two results could not have been more different. Korea has a higher population density and military budget. However, they were self-sufficient in food, unlike Cuba, who had to import about 60% of theirs. Korea’s crisis coincided with some serious weather shocks – floods (1995, 1996) and droughts (1997). Agriculture took the biggest hit – productivity dived by 30% - as a result of no oil for machinery and pesticides. By 2000, 3 million had died and childhood chronic malnutrition was running at 62% in 2006. Cuba is another story. They were lucky, they didn’t get any weather shocks. They responded with both a top-down and a bottom-up range of adaptations and mitigations. From the top down, it went like this. Taking food as the first example, there were these wierdo biodynamic farmers, organicos and permaculturalists right on the margins of agriculture – not exactly a revered community of growers. However, recognising that industrial agriculture is non-viable with severely diminishing fossil fuel inputs, the government redesigned agriculture along organic lines. They increased farmer salaries to match that of engineers. They allowed growers to keep any revenue from the surplus product they sold. They introduced food rations. The number of people working on the land went from 2-3% to 20%, and draft animals became widespread. There was also a bottom-up food production explosion. Havana (pop 2.2 million) saw urban farms and productive gardens springing up – now 50% of their vegetables and 80% of their fruit are grown within the city boundaries. On the transport front, they imported 1,000,000 bikes from China. They constructed buses from articulated lorries (dubbed camels) that could carry 300 people. They made picking up hitchhikers compulsory for all state workers who drove. During this 10 year “special period” of adaptation and mitigation, Cubans lost 20lbs in weight. They went from eating meat twice a day to twice a week. In % of their food is organic. Their levels of longevity and all health indices match, and exceed, that of other industrialised countries. But GDP went down 35% between 1989 and 1993. Next is the UK fuel crisis in It lasted just 6 days (6 to 12-Sept). Gordon Brown announced that he was putting additional tax on diesel. The truckers said “Oh no you’re not”. Gordon told them he was the Chancellor of the Exchequer and he could do what he wanted. The truckers made their point emphatically by blockading the refineries and brought the country to a standstill. Before I mention the most alarming effect of this, here are a few stats. The UK imports 50% of its vegetables and over 90% of its fruit. And the supermarket system supplies us with between 75 and 80% of our food. So during this crisis, there was documented communications between the heads of the supermarket and the government. Well, it turns out that the supermarket system - this brilliantly designed, tightly coupled, just-in-time food delivery system has just 4 ½ days worth of food in it. There’s no coincidence that the threat of tax was withdrawn before we really tested that limit and the truckers withdrew. Essentially, this reveals the huge lack of resilience in our food system. Now, I was always a bit unsure of those stats – could that really be true – 4 ½ days? I got confirmation doing a presentation in a major city in the Midlands in the UK. After the talk, the Head of Sustainability for the city (he was pretty high-powered, reporting directly to the Chief Exec) came up and asked me for my estimation of how much food there was in the city if the trucks stopped rolling. He added that they’d done this calculation already. I said… 3 days? He shook his head. 2 days? Shook it again. 1 day??? Nope. Turns out there’s 2 meals in the city if the trucks suddenly stop rolling. At the time of writing (June08) there doesn’t seem to be any threats like that in the UK. But last week, 90,000 truckers in Portugal went on strike… Who would create a food system like this? This system could only have arisen on the back of guaranteed cheap and abundant oil. No worries then… Just a quick look at agriculture now, comparing very low-tech with highly industrialised. In the US, cheap and abundant oil permits about 2% of the population to feed the other 98%. However, in places without widespread access to fossil fuels for agriculture, such as Afghanistan, over 90% of the working population is engaged in growing food. Agriculture is, in essence, a means of capturing solar energy through investment in planting, maintenance and harvesting. While the Afghan agricultural system looks inefficient from a labor point of view, it is actually far more efficient from an EROEI (energy return on energy invested or “net energy”) perspective than U.S. agriculture. The extensive use of fossil fuels in industrialized food systems makes them energy sinks. Highly industrialized food systems require about 10 times more energy to grow, harvest, process and distribute the food than is contained in the food itself—an EROEI of 1:10. It may be worth discussing food production systems more. The question often arises – can we feed Britain’s population with agricultural systems that aren’t reliant on significant fossil fuel inputs? The best recent study on this was by Simon Fairlee of Chapter 7. He concluded that a high meat diet would be problematic, but a diet based on organic agriculture with meat reared only on non-agricultural land was viable. At this point there’s often a discussion about the viability of organic vs industrial farming, typically around the potential yields. It appears to be proven that if you’re comparing industrialised chemical farming with industrialised organic farming, the former wins out in terms of yields (that doesn’t necessarily mean in terms of nutrition). However, if we’re moving away from industrialised farming of any type, then neither can compete with smaller scale organic farming that adopts permaculture principles. Here’s why. Machines can online work efficiently on monoculture crops – harvesting corn ears all around the same height. That’s one- dimensional food growing. Permaculture recognises 7 layers of food growing rather than one - canopy, low tree layer (dwarf fruit trees), shrubs, herbaceous, root crop layer, cover crop layer, vertical layer (climbers, vines). This kind of growing cannot be harvested by machines. But it’s way more productive than the other types. John Jeavons, who wrote a book called something like “How to grow more food than you ever thought possible on less land than you thought feasible” (he’s American!) has shown that it’s possible to provide 30 people with a healthy diet over the course of a year from one hectare. Now, that calculation has to be done in the UK with our growing season and weather, but it all looks a whole lot more positive that people may initially suggest. Incidentally, for those people who don’t know what permaculture is, or maybe think it’s about growing carrots in your front garden – well it’s much more than that. It’s a design concept that takes account of the cyclical nature of all things, recognises natural systems and helps us design human settlements that work with these natural cycles rather than against them. And it has proven in countless establishments around the world, that sustainability and abundance aren’t mutually exclusive. Permaculture is probably one of the most significant skills for a powered down world, and worth investigating at this early stage of our powerdown experience.

14 Der Klimawandel der Mensch CO2-Gehalt emittiert 8,2 Gt C
Auswaschung von 5 Gt in Meere Versauerung der Meere in Atmosphäre bleiben 3,2 Gt CO2-Gehalt + 2-5 ppm pro Jahr aktuell 390 ppm nie mehr als 300 ppm in den letzten 650k a

15 Wie wirken Klimagase? Wieso wirkt CO2 wenn es nur 390 ppm, Sauerstoff und Stickstoff aber 99,9% ausmachen? Klimagase wirken wie zusätzliche Decke! Klimagase können Wärmestrahlung absorbieren und in Temperatur (Schwingungen → Teilchenbewegung) ungewandelt werden Upsala Gletscher, Argentinien

16 Auswirkungen Versauerung der Meere Ungleichmäßige Temperaturerhöhung
16->16,8 Grad? Frösche, Fische, Pflanzenvegetation Verlust der Biodiversität (Jenga Spiel) Meeresspiegelanstieg verstärkt durch Grundwassernutzung mehr Unwetter und Dürren durch mehr Energie in der Atmosphäre Vgl. Wohnung, Erde

17 Debatten? Skeptiker sind fast nie Klimawissenschaftler
Lomborg: Politikwissenschaftler Singer: Physiker Journalisten, Geographen, Geologen … Gehen sie mit Hauterkrankungen zum Lungenfacharzt, Kinderarzt, Neurologen?! Mächtige Interessen Simulationen sind konservativ Realität sieht bitterer aus

18 Klimawandel – Auch noch Rückkopplungen?
18 This graph shows what may be one of the most obvious feedback mechanisms kicking in – “Albedo”. Summer 2007 saw a dramatic reduction in the sea ice in the Arctic. It was smaller by 25% than the previous minimum record and way way lower than the IPCC worst case estimates. It’s also looking at the overall area and doesn’t look at the thickness of the ice, which appears to have lost 50% of its thickness since 2001. In June 2010, scientists were predicting that this year would be a record breaker in all the wrong ways...

19 Klimawandel– Ende der Debatte
Der 4te IPCC Report, 2007 sagt aus: 19 Erwärmung des Klimasystems ist eindeutig Die Meisten der beobachteten Anstiege in globaler Durchschnittstemperatur seit der Mitte des 20.Jh. stammen höchstwahrscheinlich (Wahrscheinlichkeit >90%) aus dem beobachteten Anstieg in menschl. Klimagas Emissionen The debate about climate change has shifted. It’s no longer “Are humans responsible?”. In many circles it’s turned to “How can we implement the IPCC recommendations?” But there’s another debate, recognising a little known aspect of the IPCC 4th (current at June 2008) Report. Here’s the situation. The IPCC is the highly qualified body convened by the UN to look at the published science on climate change and draw conclusions and recommendations. They took hundreds and hundreds of published, peer reviewed articles and synthesised their findings from these. In order for them to do this analysis, they stipulated a cut-off date for these articles. It was mid That’s four years ago. Muse on that… None of the science that has emerged in the ensuing four years has been included in the report. Not only that, but there was deliberate toning down of the report, particularly the Summary and Recommendations for Policy Makers. The two big omissions were feedback mechanisms and the reducing performance of the climate sinks and how they might affect the climate. The last four years has yielded masses of new information about both of these and how they interact and affect the climate. Feedback mechanisms first. There are two types of feedback mechanisms – amplifying and stabilising. The amplifying mechanisms accelerate and “amplify” the effects. Turns out there are around 20+ feedback mechanisms and most of them are amplifying. And that’s a problem. Take one example “Albedo”. The word means “white” and refers to the reflectiveness of the earth’s surface and how that determines how much heat is absorbed by the earth or reflected back into space. Ice is a good example. Ice reflects back 80% of heat, while the sea around it reflects about 20% absorbing the other 80%. As soon as you get an ice loss, the rate of heat absorption by the ocean increases, warming the water and increasing the ice melt. This reduces how much heat is reflected, increasing temperatures. It’s easy to see how this vicious cycle can cause dramatic effects. In 2007, when the Artic ice melt reduced the total area by 25% less than the previously recorded minimum, we began to see the potential for these feedbacks. And incidentally, that measurement doesn’t include the reducing thickness of the ice, estimated to be less than half it was in 1970’s. Thin ice breaks up much more easily than thick ice, and consequently melts much faster. Think of crushed ice in a glass versus large ice cubes. The latter lasts much longer. The next slide shows the dramatic ice melt, and brings up some of the limitations of the IPCC report. Initially, they suggested that the Arctic could be ice-free in summer by Current evidence is suggesting that this may well happen before 2020. Now the carbon sinks. Up until recently, the oceans and the worlds forests were absorbing about 50% of our carbon emissions. However, as the concentrations of carbon dioxide have gone up, the ability of those sinks to absorb carbon is going down. This means that even if we start reducing our carbon emissions as a species, it may not mean that the carbon concentrations will go down as fast we might have hoped. Which brings us back to the IPCC report and their assertion that 2C increase above the pre-industrial period is safe. It doesn’t look like it is. We’ve increased global average temperatures by 0.8C since the start of the industrial revolution. In addition to that, because of the inertia in the climate systems, we’re already committed to another 0.6C, bring us close to 1.5C increase. If we’re already seeing the demise of the arctic ice at 0.8C, what are we going to see at 1.5C? And what would happen at the “safe” limit of 2C? Incidentally, there’s no sea level rise as the Arctic ice melts because it’s seaborne ice (like the ice in that gin and tonic). However, as those sea temperatures go up, we’ll see an accelerating melt on Greenland (which is already showing dramatic acceleration through previously little-understood mechanisms such as water pooling on the surface, forming chimneys (“moulins”) that send millions of gallons down to the base of the glacier, melting the underside of the glacier and reducing the friction between it and the rock below, allowing it to move much faster towards the sea... There’s 7 metres of sea level rise if Greenland melts. So when you hear the governments talking about the IPCC recommendations, and establishing targets based on it, you need to understand that these will change, dramatically. The targets we must go for in terms of curtailing carbon emissions are massively more stringent than anyone is talking about right now. Be prepared... Upsala Gletscher, Argentinien

20 Warum die Arktis wichtig ist
20 And here’s the arctic story more graphically, with the left hand image showing the picture in 1989 and the left one in 2007, both September. The white is ice that’s more than 5 years old, the light blue is ice less than 5 years old and the blue is sea. That’s what happens when the albedo feedback mechanism kicks in. As we can see, we’re going to have to set much more stringent CO2 targets if we’re to avoid hitting the tipping points and this’ll have far-reaching impacts in all activities that currently are responsible for carbon emissions. When you add in Peak Oil, the notion that “Business as Usual” is viable is complete nonsense. Let’s weave Peak Oil and Climate Change together and see why... Polar Science Center Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington

21 Es ist höchste Zeit zu handeln!
Global Governance muss durch individuelles Engagement ergänzt werden! Vorteil: Erschlagen vieler anderer Probleme Peak Soil Diversitätsverlust Unzufriedenheit Ungleichheit ...

22 Peak Oil & Klimawandel 22 Now certain governments and agencies focus on either climate change or peak oil – eg the Hirsch report done for the US government in 2005 that focus on the risk implications of peak oil and, amid it’s very alarming conclusions, called for coal-to- liquids, a “drill, baby, drill” exploration policy and biofuels. Also the Stern report in the UK (2007) that took an economists view of climate change and called for climate engineering, nuclear, offsetting, carbon capture and storage, emissions trading. Again, the US DoD report in 2010 focuses primarily on energy security and warns of supply crunches in 2012 and massive shortages in 2015. None of these take a look at energy and climate together. Nor do they look adequately at the economic crisis and weave that into the picture, an essential component because it could well be that credit scarcity will accelerate the decline of available energy, both in terms of exploiting oil and building out of renewables infrastructure. This graphic explains that if you put peak oil and climate change together, you get a wholly different set of imperatives – first of all the need to plan for something other than “business as usual”. Second, a need to figure out how to power down the key systems of food, energy, transport and economics. Third, we’ll have to power up renewables. If we were to go a bit further and weave economic contraction into this picture, we’d see a higher level of urgency, we’d see perhaps a big question mark over some of the bigger renewables schemes. On the positive side, we’d perhaps see some very proactive plans (by the national or local governments) to set up the local infrastructure needed to support local economies – credit unions, local currencies, ownership models for local energy.

23 Was können wir tun? Global National Gemeinde/Viertel Persönlich
Ölerschöpfungs Protokoll Schrumpfung und Konzentration Kyoto National TEQs, Deckeln & Teilen(Energierationierung) Gemeinde/Viertel Transition Städte, Dörfer, Viertel Persönlich “Die Arbeit, die verbindet” Selbstfokussierte Bildung 23 Before going on to the specifics of this process of transitioning from our carbon-intensive, fossil fuel dependant ways of living, I’d like to move on to the wider picture – it’s important to remind ourselves of the big picture of global energy descent. There are 4 levels, Global, National, Local and personal. At the global level regarding oil usage, there’s a gap. The proposals put forward by the Oil Depletion Protocol seem to have disappeared without trace. Contraction and Convergence has greater amount of traction and proposes a much fairer allocation of CO2 emissions, country by country. At the national level, in the UK, Tradable Energy Quotas envisage a tradable energy ration encompassing individuals, businesses and government – enabling energy misers to sell their allocation to energy gluttons – within a framework that guarantees year on year a stepped reductions in overall fossil fuel use. Its benefits apply equally to Peak Oil and Climate Change. And for those people who feel uncomfortable with the concept of “rationing”, it’s important to recognise that we all operate in a rationing system right now. It’s called “economic rationing”, and if you don’t have the right coupons, with a picture of the queen and the number 10 on them, you’re not going to be able to get your rations. I’m not sure that moving to a managed rationing system for essentials under a stressed economic circumstances is necessarily a retrograde step. Seems quite a lot fairer to me, but we’ll have to see how that all plays out. And at the local level, we have communities undertaking relocalisation initiatives under the transition banner, and a whole host of wonderful initiatives being undertaken by the Low Carbon communities, the Going Carbon Neutral towns, the Zero Carbon communities. It’s crucial that we all start sharing information, solutions and experiences. The well-established network of Transition Initiatives is working with these communities to see how we can widen the learning and cooperation between us all. After all, we’re all in the same boat. Literally. At the personal level, there’s a very urgent need to challenge most of our assumptions about the ready availability of energy to fuel our consumptive addictions; assumptions about an ecosystem that can continue to handle our “waste” (including CO2). Further, we have to challenge those cultural stories that determine our behaviours – such as “economic growth equals happiness”, “humans have dominion over the ecosystems they inhabit”, “technology will save us”. We call this journey the “inner part of Transition”, where we face the fears that arise from acknowledging these threats, and, supported by people around us, come out the other side with a resolve, an inner resilience, that will help us put ourselves to work to meet these challenges. In terms of personal change, it’s interesting to look at how climate change and peak oil produce different motivations. To act on Climate Change in the UK, a person needs to have two attributes – long term thinking and altruism. There are plenty of people who are wired that way, but not enough. To act on Peak Oil, a person needs to have two other attributes – shorter term thinking and selfishness. Climate Change will affect us all, but the first to feel it will be Bangladeshi’s washed out of their villages, or Indians washed away by the glacial lakes breaking their ice dams. Peak Oil, however, is right in your face. It’s here, it’s coming soon, and the impacts will be felt in your pocket, and on your table. Put the two together and they create an imperative for action, short term and long term, bringing together those that really are concerned for people on the other side of the world and those that have more immediate concerns. There are some positive signs...

24 Peak oil, Klimawandel, Nahrung und das schottische Parlament
Unanimously passed motion “…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008) 24 People often wonder about the connection between Transition and the local/regional/national government. There’s no firm pattern here – some want to engage, others not. However, there are some very exciting developments, here are three slides that indicate this. Just keeping on the theme of food, here’s one of the most promising developments we’ve seen recently (June 2008). A resolution unanimously passed in the Scottish Parliament that recognises the connections between peak oil, climate change and the lack of resilience of our food systems. ““…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages; … food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to … seek solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in oil production … ensuring the long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; … encourage the development of local supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)” Now all we need is for that to be recognised at the UK national level, the EU, the UN and lots of other countries and we may see significant global advances in resilience around food.

25 Transition and Somerset CC (UK)
acknowledges [...] that the independence of the Transition Movement is key to its grass roots appeal. fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities. commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative [...]. [...] allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns [...] requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK. agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. (Motion unanimously pass by Somerset County Council in July 2008) 25 Unanimously passed by Somerset County Council on 24-July-08

26 Monteveglio council, Italy
Oil and fossil fuel depletion is this administration’s priority, to be implemented through an Energy Descent Plan to turn Monteveglio into a “Post Carbon” City. Strategic partnership with the Association Monteveglio Città di Transizione [Transition Town Monteveglio] with whom this administration shares: a view of the future (the depletion of energy resources and the significance of a limit to economic development) methods (bottom-up community participation) objectives (to make our community more resilient, i.e. better prepared to face a low energy future) an optimistic approach (although the times are hard, changes to come will include great opportunities to improve the whole community’s quality of life). Begin a participative and institutional process to promote Monteveglio as a Transition Town, with the direct participation of the whole community and a final statement by the City Council. Define CO2 emission measurement tools and containment policies well beyond EU targets and in line with the global objective of 350 ppm. excerpt from Monteveglio “Decree” 26 Approved by the board and published by Monteveglio town council in Italy in November 2009

27 Peak Oil und Saudi-arabien
“We know that pumping oil out of the ground does not create many jobs. It does not foster an entrepreneurial spirit, nor does it sharpen critical faculties.”- Saudi Arabiens Öl Minister Ali Al-Naimi 100 Mrd. Plan um Solarenergie voranzutreiben

28 Können wir darauf antworten?
Auf dem Weg nach oben haben wir benutzt: Genialität Kreativität Anpassungsfähigkeit Kooperation Runter kommen wir… wenn wir früh genug handeln wenn wir kooperativ sind Könnte die Zukunft viel besser sein … 28 So then the question is this: does the human race have what it takes to devise and undertake mitigations and adaptations in the face of this imperative to drop carbon and increase resilience. Well, the doom and gloomers seem to think that all the ingenuity, creativity and cooperation that we showed in remarkable levels as we went up the energy curve since the early 1900’s will completely disappear. That’s nonsense. Humans under reasonable levels of stress, joining together under a common purpose can be phenomenally brilliant, designing creative solutions and adaptations. And if we act early enough and cooperatively enough to unleash the genius within our local communities, there’s no reason why we can’t move away from this strangely disconnected, ecologically blind, consumption fixated, climactically suicidal situation we now find ourselves in towards ways of living that are far more fulfilling, more connected and more gentle on the earth.

29 Was hält uns auf? (1) Dominante Mythen heute:
Wir werden den Weltraum kolonisieren Morgen wird wie heute, nur größer und schöner Wirtschaftswachstum ist gut Wir müssen weiter einkaufen gehen Technologie wird alle unsere Probleme lösen Es gibt keine Alternative Man kann Fortschritt nicht aufhalten Der Lebensstandard steigt Menschen sind von Natur aus egoistisch und gierig Der Markt wird das Problem lösen Wir sind alle verdammt … 29 If we know many of the solutions already, what’s stopping us all acting? There’s been a lot of work done on this. First of all, there are the dominant stories, or cultural myths, of our time, reinforced whenever we switch on the tv or look at a billboard. Each of us carries some of these myths with us day in, day out.

30 Green-Tech Stabilität
Was sind unsere Geschichten der Zukunft ? Techno-Fantasie Peak Energie? Green-Tech Stabilität 30 Energie-verbrauch Ressourcen-verbrauch Umweltschaden Verschmutzung Taking these cultural stories a little further, let’s look at the stories we tell ourselves about the future. This graph represents energy and resource use over time, from the point that agriculture was introduced 10,000 years ago to some time in the future, perhaps when our great grandchildren are alive. We can see the increase of energy use that accelerated dramatically during the industrial revolution. At some point we will hit “peak usable energy” possibly coinciding with peak oil, beyond which we need to be proactively working our way down the energy curve. There are a number of ways that might play out, featured on this graph. The first is the absurdly optimistic ‘techno-fantasy’ (e.g., unlimited nuclear cold fusion with no unforeseen negative impacts), flying cars and nutrition delivered to us in pills and strangely coloured liquids in tall glasses. This is the stuff of science fiction, and very entertaining it can be too. At the other end of the scale is a scenario like Mad Max but without any of the good bits. Many people are drawn to this scenario based on their perceptions of human nature and perhaps an overdeveloped sense of pioneer spirit. More realistic perhaps are the inter-mediate third and fourth scenarios. In ‘green-tech stability’ we essentially maintain our current level of energy usage by progressively moving to renewable sources such as wind, solar, tidal power, etc., as fossil fuel reserves are used up. Permaculture defines a fourth scenario termed ‘Earth Stewardship’, a ‘creative descent’ in which we progressively reduce our energy demands to return eventually to living within the natural energy and production budget of the land we occupy. Elements of all these scenarios can be found in the wide-ranging viewpoints and arguments of today’s ‘sustainability’ debates. Auftieg der Industrie Kreativer Abstieg (Permakultur) Verantwortung für die Erde Post Mad Max Kollaps Vor-industrielle Kultur Historische Zeit Landwirtschaft 10.000y Industrielle Revolution Baby Boom Ururenkel Zukunft

31 Den Mythos verändern… 31 Just thinking about the task ahead, of raising awareness of the issues and creating an environment where communities are able to unleash the local genius to devise creative ways of moving down the other side of the energy mountain, it’s interesting to see how stories might be used. It’s about how the brain works. Facts and figures are processed by the left-hand side of the brain, and that’s a fairly static unimaginative processing unit, not suited to changing behaviours. However, start engaging the right- hand side and all that changes – you’re dealing with fluidity, creativity and a processing unit that loves to play with the possibilities of change. By stories, I mean the myths and tales and truths that underpin the way we think about the world. There are myths such as: growth is good I have no power Technology will solve all our problems There is no alternative You can’t stop progress Living standards are rising New, better, faster, shinier ____ are just around the corner Humans are selfish and greedy by nature The market will solve it One myth is around oil. It’s that this process of appropriating fossil fuels has been a wonderful journey towards a peak. On that journey, the views have been getting increasingly more wonderful, that the air is cleaner up here, that the opportunities and possibilities are unlimited and we can launch ourselves off this mountain if we want and fly to the stars. What would it be like to turn that story, literally, on its head...

32 Den Mythos verändern… ... and this is what it would look like.
32 ... and this is what it would look like. We were presented with a pool, and told that there were untold riches and happiness in it. We dived right in and started swimming downwards, searching for these riches. And sometimes they were there, and sometimes they were illusory. But we kept on swimming down. It got a bit murky, and the surface started to seem a long way away. Then it became thick and treacly, and it was difficult to move through it. Vision reduced to just inches before our eyes. But we kept going down. And then we realised – we’re not suited to swimming around in poisonous gloop. And as our lungs, our eyes, our sense of smell, our clogging pores told us to get the hell out of that pool of treasures. And our task right now is to swim up through to the clearer water, back up to the surface. To haul ourselves out of that ruinous mire, wipe off the clinging remnants of gloop, take a huge lungful of clean air and say to ourselves – “never again will I take those type of risks to find treasures that were ultimately temporary at best, illusory at worst.”

33 Was hält uns auf? (2) Kognitive Überlastungstheorie (Frucht Salat-experiment) Kurzzeit vs Langzeit Denken rational vs emotional Neocortex vs Säugetier- vs Reptiliengehirn Glauben an Autoritätsfiguren Stromschlag Hinrichtungsexperiment- 65% gaben lethale Dosis Gehorchende Kinder überleben Kosten aufschieben oder investieren in der Gegenwart “Es ist schwer jemanden von etwas zu überzeugen wenn sein Arbeitsplatz davon abhängt es nicht zu glauben” Optimismus Eine optimistische Perspektive ist neurochemisch selbstbelohnend 33 There are other reasons whey we’re not acting, now, today. Some of the research has lead to various theories, all rather fascinating… Cognitive overload theory Cognitive overload theory suggests humans have a maximum capacity of working memory. At around 7 'chunks' of information, our working memory maxes out and we can't accept anything else without losing some of the previous 'chunks'. Try remembering the following numbers Its quite hard to do. But if they are rearranged in chunks , it becomes much more manageable. Numerous studies have measured this phenomenon - a notable study by Shiv and Fedhorkhin(1) asked a group of people to memorize a two digit number, walk down a corridor and at the end choose a dessert - either chocolate cake or fruit salad. A different sample of people were then asked to memorize a 7 digit number and walk down the corridor (while internally reciting this 7 digit number) and also choose a dessert. When required to memorize the 7 digit number, almost twice as many people chose the chocolate cake as in the sample only memorizing the 2 digit number - the implication being - 'my short term memory is full - I cant access my rational, long term decision-making hardware - just give me the damn cake'. Authority Figures Irrespective of its origins and as uncomfortable as it sounds, we DO inherently believe in authority figures, as the famous and controversial Milgram experiments evidenced. 65% of volunteers delivered what they thought were fatal doses of 450 volt electric shocks to human subjects while being calmly assured to continue by the experiment 'administrators' (doctors in lab coats). The other 35% of participants still delivered high voltage shocks to the point of unconsciousness but refused to administer the 'highest level' shocks. Interestingly, none of these 35% insisted that the experiment itself be terminated, nor left the room to check that the victim was O.K. without first asking for permission. So much for independent thinking. In interviews prior to the experiment respondents predicted that only the most 'sadistic' 1.2% of participants would be willing to hurt another participant with electric shocks, yet 100% of the participants DID administer the shocks. The power of authority figures is indeed strong. Optimism There are good neural explanations for being optimistic. Even if the pessimistic view may be the more accurate, the stress of incorporating the particular negativity into ones worldview releases a cascade of stress- activated hormones that can seriously compromise a persons health. An optimistic outlook actually is neurochemically self-fulfilling. Optimism leads to increased frontal cortical activity which itself is a strong predictor of idea generation, positive emotion and overall liveliness of thought. Similarly, sadness is marked by decreased activity in the frontal cortex, which has the negative side affect of reducing the number of overall thoughts and ideas produced. Cognitive neuroscientist Antonio Damasio points out that our brain exaggerates reality - when the glass is half full - the brain adds a little more for zest - when the glass is half empty, the brain subtracts some and things seem worse than they really are. Being introduced to peak oil can be quite a shock. Its tough to be cheerful about the facts and implications about oil depletion, though ultimately we definitely could (and should) be happier with less energy. But initiation to the concept of upcoming shrinkage of the lifeblood of society can easily cause internal conflict in a species obviously wired to gravitate towards optimism.

34 Wie rational sind wir? Die Grundlagen der Magie optische Täuschung
Täuschungen höherer kognitiver Funktionen? Um besser zu täuschen, entwickelte der Mensch die Selbsttäuschung Auflösungsstrategien für Konflikte, die aus sich wiedersprechenden Kognitionen erwachsen Opferabwertung Verharmlosung externe Gründe Zeitweise Ausblendung von Ansichten, Überzeugungen oder auch offensichtlicher Fakten, um vor sich und anderen ein positives Image zu behalten Es befällt uns alle von Zeit zu Zeit! keine grundsätzliche Wertunge Man muss jedoch damit rechnen und sich nicht mit einem rein rationalen Selbstbild betrügen! Kognitive Dissonanz Beschreibt die Widersprüche zwischen Wirklichkeit und utopischen Wunschdenken, es gibt zwei grundlegende Strategien: - Sich an der Wirklichkeit orientieren und sich um Besserung bemühen. - Die Wirklichkeit manipulieren und an der Utopie „Pippi Langstrumpf Welt“ festhalten, um so das Wohlgefühl des Erfolgs zu bewahren. Stundentenexperiment von Feistinger Peak Oil Erhalt des Status Quo Gilt auch für andere Zusammenhänge: langweiliger Job, Studium etc. Extremform: Anosognosie “Was dem Herz widerstrebt, lässt der Kopf nicht ein.” (A. Schopenhauer)

35 Beispiele R. Fuld nach Lehmann Pleite
“Es war ein Sturm über das Finanzsystem hereingebrochen” Mitarbeiter machten klar, er habe Fehler schon lange nicht mehr sehen wollen. Schönreden uninteressanter Jobs oder des Studiums Raucher: viele Raucher werden alt es ist zu spät Peak Oil und Klimawandel keine technischen, sondern Verhaltenskrise!

36 Umgang mit kognitiver Dissonanz
Gandhi hat das Konzept gut verstanden Sein Rat für die Lösung von Konflikten Verhalte dich so, dass es dem, der Gewalt anwendet nicht möglich ist, sein positives Selbstbild aufrecht zu erhalten. Meditation, Gebet, müßiggängerischer Spaziergang: unsere Motive, Gefühle etc. sind im ständigen Fluß Was ist dauerhaft, real und intersubjektiv nachprüfbar → Gemeinschaft! Ghandi: Festhalten an der Wahrheit!

37 Ash-Effekt allein gegen andere Meinungen zusammen mit anderen
Verheimlichung Selbstzweifel zusammen mit anderen Festhalten an eigenen Überzeugungen gelingt eher

38 Wer entwirft einen kreativen, positiven Energieabstieg? (in Amerika)
38 This list of transition initiatives from around the world is growing fast. Covering the globe from Australia to Brazil, Chile to Finland, Canada to Spain, and with populations varying from 2,500 to hundreds of thousands: For communities with larger populations, the complexity of a Transition initiative increase significantly. What we’re seeing is the city splitting itself into easily manageable chunks – cities typically are an amalgamation of smaller communities, villages and towns. Some of these places are “mulling over” whether they’ll start up a full blown initiative in their locale. Others are “official” Transition Initiatives. By that, we mean that we at Transition Network know they have a reasonably sized initiating group, made up of people who have lived in that community for significant periods of time, that they understand peak oil and climate change, that they’ve educated themselves on the Transition Model, that they’re striving for inclusivity across their initiative. Many of these groups have attended training courses that deepen their understanding of the process of transition and the rationale behind it. Currently there are over 300 “officials” and more “mulling it” over than we can keep count of.

39 Wer entwirft einen kreativen, positiven Energieabstieg?(Aus/NZ)
39 This list of transition initiatives from around the world is growing fast. Covering the globe from Australia to Brazil, Chile to Finland, Canada to Spain, and with populations varying from 2,500 to hundreds of thousands: For communities with larger populations, the complexity of a Transition initiative increase significantly. What we’re seeing is the city splitting itself into easily manageable chunks – cities typically are an amalgamation of smaller communities, villages and towns. Some of these places are “mulling over” whether they’ll start up a full blown initiative in their locale. Others are “official” Transition Initiatives. By that, we mean that we at Transition Network know they have a reasonably sized initiating group, made up of people who have lived in that community for significant periods of time, that they understand peak oil and climate change, that they’ve educated themselves on the Transition Model, that they’re striving for inclusivity across their initiative. Many of these groups have attended training courses that deepen their understanding of the process of transition and the rationale behind it. Currently there are over 300 “officials” and more “mulling it” over than we can keep count of.

40 Wer entwirft einen kreativen, positiven Energieabstieg? (GB und Irland)
40 This list of transition initiatives from around the world is growing fast. Covering the globe from Australia to Brazil, Chile to Finland, Canada to Spain, and with populations varying from 2,500 to hundreds of thousands: For communities with larger populations, the complexity of a Transition initiative increase significantly. What we’re seeing is the city splitting itself into easily manageable chunks – cities typically are an amalgamation of smaller communities, villages and towns. Some of these places are “mulling over” whether they’ll start up a full blown initiative in their locale. Others are “official” Transition Initiatives. By that, we mean that we at Transition Network know they have a reasonably sized initiating group, made up of people who have lived in that community for significant periods of time, that they understand peak oil and climate change, that they’ve educated themselves on the Transition Model, that they’re striving for inclusivity across their initiative. Many of these groups have attended training courses that deepen their understanding of the process of transition and the rationale behind it. Currently there are over 300 “officials” and more “mulling it” over than we can keep count of.

41 Wer entwirft einen kreativen, positiven Energieabstieg
Wer entwirft einen kreativen, positiven Energieabstieg?(Europa und weiter) 41 This list of transition initiatives from around the world is growing fast. Covering the globe from Australia to Brazil, Chile to Finland, Canada to Spain, and with populations varying from 2,500 to hundreds of thousands: For communities with larger populations, the complexity of a Transition initiative increase significantly. What we’re seeing is the city splitting itself into easily manageable chunks – cities typically are an amalgamation of smaller communities, villages and towns. Some of these places are “mulling over” whether they’ll start up a full blown initiative in their locale. Others are “official” Transition Initiatives. By that, we mean that we at Transition Network know they have a reasonably sized initiating group, made up of people who have lived in that community for significant periods of time, that they understand peak oil and climate change, that they’ve educated themselves on the Transition Model, that they’re striving for inclusivity across their initiative. Many of these groups have attended training courses that deepen their understanding of the process of transition and the rationale behind it. Currently there are over 300 “officials” and more “mulling it” over than we can keep count of.

42 Das Transition Modell Wie organisieren wir das? Versteht: 7 “Abers”
PO + KW + €≠“Business as usual” Anpassungsfähig, Kreativ Jetzt anfangen 7 “Abers” “Zutaten” 42 The Transition Model is a loose set of realworld principles and practices that have been built up over time though experimentation and observation of communities as they drive forward to build local resilience and reduce carbon emissions. Underlying awareness Underpinning the Transition Model is an understanding of the potential impacts of Climate Change, Peak Oil, economic contraction and of the urgency to take action. There is also a recognition that humans are far more rounded than the consumerist dog-eat-dog predators that we're often portrayed as, and that we're very well suited to forming complex cooperative working relationships. And finally, in connection with the world economy and the consumptive patterns within it, there's an acknowledgement that as long as the laws of physics apply, infinite growth within a finite system (such as planet earth) simply isn't possible. The 7 "Buts" When faced with the prospect of difficult change and challenging actions, humans will construct their own emotional and psychological barriers that stop them taking those actions. The "7 Buts" name and dismantle what we've seen to be the most typical barriers to change. The 12 Steps to Transition These are the areas that we've observed as being critical so far in Transition Initiatives. Communities are adopting these steps, adapting and reordering as they see fit. It's not a prescriptive "must-do" list, it's what we've seen working through close scrutiny and being in Transition Initiatives ourselves. In time it will certainly change as we learn more about how communities can most effectively tackle the challenges of climate change and peak oil. Network Underpinning much of this work is Transition Network's role in creating frameworks and support systems that enable communities to work together and share information as they consider and then implement their version of the model.

43 Das Transition Modell – 7 “Abers” (1)
Ich würde mitmachen aber... Wir haben kein Geld “Die” lassen uns nicht Grabenkämpfe mit anderen grünen Gruppen 43 …”But We’ve Got No Funding”… This really is not an issue. Funding is a very poor substitute for enthusiasm and community involvement, both of which will take you through the first phases of your transition. Funders can also demand a measure of control, and may steer the initiative in directions that run counter to community interests. Transition Town Totnes began in September 2005 with no money at all, and has been self-funding ever since. The talks and film screenings that we run bring in money to subsidise free events such as Open Space Days. You will reach a point where you have specific projects that will require funding, but until that point you’ll manage. Retain the power over whether this happens… don’t let lack of funding stop you. …”But They Won’t Let Us”… There is a fear among some green folks that somehow any initiative that actually succeeds in effecting any change will get shut down, suppressed, attacked by faceless bureaucrats or corporations. If that fear is strong enough to prevent you taking any action, if the only action you’re willing to take is to abdicate all your power to some notional “they”, then you’re probably reading the wrong document. On the other hand, Transition Towns operate ‘below the radar’, neither seeking victims nor making enemies. As such, they don’t seem to be incurring the wrath of any existing institutions. On the contraray, with corporate awareness of ecology and climate change building daily, you will be surprised at how many people in positions of power will be enthused and inspired by what you are doing, and will support, rather than hinder, your efforts. …”But There Are Already Green Groups in This Town, I Don’t Want to Step on Their Toes”… We’ll go into this in more detail in Step 3 below, but in essence, you’d be exceedingly unlucky to encounter any “turf wars”. What your Transition Town initiative will do is to form a common goal and sense of purpose for the existing groups, some of which you might find are a bit burnt out and will really appreciate the new vigour you will bring. Liaising with a network of existing groups towards an Energy Descent Action Plan will enhance and focus their work, rather than replicate or supercede it. Expect them to become some of your strong allies, crucial to the success of your Transition. As an example, here’s an extract from an sent by someone in the Sustainable Redland in Bristol, a group that has been looking at urban sustainability for some time, after attending a Transition City Bristol meeting “I just wanted to feed back to the group after going to last night’s Transition City Bristol meeting and talk. Great bunch of people, informative talk… I got the impression that the Transition City bunch are probably way further along the road than us in really building guardianship of the planet into their lives, but despite that, there was no sense of 'us and them'. There was also a refreshing lack of angst about what the authorities in bristol are/will be doing, it was 'ignore that just get on with it'.”

44 Das Transition Modell – 7 “Abers”(2)
Ich würde mitmachen aber... Niemand kümmert sich um die Umwelt Es ist sowieso zu spät Ich bin nicht qualifiziert Ich habe keine Energie für sowas 44 …”But No One In This Town Cares About The Environment Anyway”… One could easily be forgiven for thinking this, given the existence of what we might perceive as an apathetic consumer culture surrounding us. Scratch a bit deeper though, and you’ll find that the most surprising people are keen advocates of key elements of a Transition Initiative - local food, local crafts, local history and culture. The key is to go to them, rather than expecting them to come to you. Seek out common ground, and you’ll find your community to be a far more interesting place than you thought it was. …”But Surely It’s Too Late To do Anything?”… It may be too late, but the likelihood is that it isn’t. That means your (and others’) endeavours are absolutely crucial. Don’t let hopelessness sabotage your efforts - as Vandana Shiva says, “the uncertainty of our times is no reason to be certain about hopelessness”. …”But I Don't Have The Right Qualifications”… If you don't do it, who else will?  It matters not that you don't have a PhD in sustainability, or years of experience in gardening or planning. What’s important is that you care about where you live, that you see the need to act, and that you are open to new ways of engaging people.  If there was to be a job description for someone to start this process rolling it might list the qualities of that person as being: Positive, Good with people, A basic knowledge of the place and some of the key people in the town. That, in truth, is about it. You are, after all, about to design your own demise into the process from the start (see Step#1), so your role at this stage is like a gardener preparing the soil for the ensuing garden, which you may or may not be around to see.   …”But I Don't Have The Energy for Doing That!”… As the quote often ascribed to Goethe goes, "whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it.  Boldness has genius, power and magic in it!"  The experience of beginning a Transition Town certainly shows this to be the case. You may feel overwhelmed by the prospect of all the work and complexity, but people will come forward to help.  Indeed, many have commented on the serendipity of the whole process, how the right people appear at the right time.  Very often, developing environmental initiatives is like pushing a broken down car up a hill; hard, unrewarding slog.  Transition Towns is like coming down the other side – the car starts moving faster than you can keep up with it, accelerating all the time.  Once you give it the push from the top of the hill it will develop its own momentum.  That's not to say it isn't hard work sometimes, but it is almost always a pleasure. 

45 Eure Vision für Hamburg.

46 Die Transition Antwort
46 Cheerful Disclaimer Self – organising Viral – amplifying feedbacks Catalyst Solutions focused Agile Development – Iterative A Clarifying Framework Sensitive to place and scale Playful and creative – under the radar

47 Transition Modell - Schritt 1
Gründe eine Kerngruppe und gestalte ihre Transformation von Anfang an Schrumpfung Persönliche Ziele Bescheidenheit Schritte 2-5 Reformiert aus Untergruppen 47 #1. Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Outset This stage puts a core team in place to drive the project forward during the initial phases. Bill Mollison, the co-originator of the permaculture concept, once said, “I can’t save the world on my own. It’ll take at least three of us”. In starting this initiative off, you will need to gather some like minded souls to you in order to drive forward the first stage of the process. What is essential though, and its importance is becoming increasingly clear to me, is that from its first meeting, that group must design its own transformation by setting a defined lifespan. So many groups in all areas of life become atrophied, stuck with people who cling to their outdated roles and stifle the progress of the project. In the longer term it is important that the project becomes driven by those who are actually doing things. I would suggest that you form your Steering Group of reliable people with the aim of getting through stages 2 – 5, and agree that once a minimum of four sub-groups are formed, your Steering Group disbands and reforms with a person from each of those groups. This requires a degree of humility, but is very important in order to put the success of the project above the individuals involved. Ultimately your Steering Group should become made up of 1 representative of each sub-group.

48 Transition Modell - Schritt 2
Bewusstseinsbildung Verbündete und Netzwerke Vorbereitung der Öffentlichkeit Filme Diskussionen Veranstaltungen 48 #2. Awareness Raising This stage will identify your key allies, build crucial networks and prepare the community in general for the launch of your Transition initiative. You cannot assume that people in your community are familiar with peak oil, with climate change, or even with basic environmental concepts and principles. It is essential before launching an Official Unleashing event (see #3) that you prepare the ground. In Totnes we spent nearly a year giving talks, film screenings and networking before we organised the launch. During that time we learnt a great deal about how to most effectively do this. Although your awareness raising process is, on the surface, about informing people and disseminating ideas, it is also, perhaps more importantly, about getting people talking to each other, starting to build social networks. We’ve included ideas on how to do this below. Movies We screened the End of Suburbia three times, each time to sellout crowds. Other films we showed were “The Power of Community – how Cuba Survived Peak Oil” and “Peak Oil: Imposed by Nature”. These films create a ripple effect and lots of people want to see them. In Lewes, the community cinema showed “An Inconvenient Truth” every Sunday until (eventually) nobody showed up. These screenings can be presented in such a way that they are fun and memorable, create a buzz and allow people to ‘digest’ the information presented by discussing its implications with each other. That way, the screening as a whole is something that people go home and tell their friends and family about. We start any film screening or talk by inviting people to turn to the person next to them and tell them who they are, where they have come from and why they are here. Then after the film we do the same thing (but with a different person), this time to talk about their thoughts on the film. People love the opportunity to do this, it really enhances their enjoyment of the evening. We’ve had a lot of success using a panel of “experts” to answer questions at the end of the screening. It’s also a way to draw in official bodies - you can invite people from the local authority, ideally those who make decisions on energy and environmental issues, as well as planners, to sit on the panel at screenings. It strikes a nice balance between giving people in authority the respected position they like whilst being able to ask them tricky questions. Talks Another aspect of this awareness raising work is talks. It is essential to avoid a series of peak oil talks which are doomladen evenings about how civilization is about to implode and we are all about to start eating each other when oil hits $120 a barrel. Find speakers who can present the matter in a positive, engaging way. One aspect of Transition Town Totnes that is fairly unreplicable for other TTs is the range of speakers that we have access to via Schumacher College. Having said that, most other TTs have been successful at finding good speakers, and it is also important not to rely just on ‘names’, but to draw on the wisdom and experience in your community. Events Organise events that make people think, but which also support them through the process of realising the illusory nature of the oil-created world around them, which for some can be quite traumatic. Make sure you design enough space into your events for people to talk with each other and feel some degree of support in exploring these issues. Make sure any event gives people the time to talk to the person next to them, as described above in the movie section. You might run an evening class, go into schools, write articles for the local paper, get something on the local television. There is really no clear way of knowing when this stage has been done sufficiently to allow you to move on to the next one, you just have to gauge that yourself. I was only able to effectively assess the impact of what we had done when Richard Heinberg was in Totnes in December 2006 and at the beginning of his talk he asked the audience how many of them were familiar with the concept of peak oil. Three quarters of the 350 people attending put up their hands. Not bad. Where to Get The DVDs From. We keep a list of the best movies with reviews and details of licensing arrangements in the Transition Initiatives Primer, downloadable from our website.

49 Transition Modell - Schritt 3
49 Das Fundament legen Andere Gruppen Vorhandene Projekte Offizielle Gremien Firmen Kollaboration #3. Lay the Foundations This stage is about networking with existing groups and activists, making clear to them that the Transition Town initiative is designed to incorporate their previous efforts and future inputs by looking at the future in a new way. Acknowledge and honour the work they do, and stress that they have a vital role to play. It is extremely unlikely that you will be starting a Transition Town project in a place where absolutely no environmental initiatives have ever happened before. Within the community there will be a wide range of environmental aware people. Some will be just finding out about environmental ideas, others will be familiar with the theory for years but haven’t done much practical action. You’ll find gardeners, growers and builders, and people who are burnt out from the stresses of activism. There is also a range of official and semi-official organisations and bodies, from Local Government to Womens Institutes. It is essential at this stage that you network with these groups, and make it clear that this is a process of supporting and collaborating with them, rather than duplicating their endeavours or worse still, dismissing their years of hard work as somehow irrelevant. Offer presentations to all the existing environmental and decision-making organisations in the town. Give them a concise and accessible overview of peak oil, what it means, how it relates to climate change (this may be an important point with some green groups who are committed to tackling climate change but not really au fait with peak oil and the relationship between the two), how it might affect the community in question, and the key challenges it presents. Set out your thinking about how a Transition Town process might be able to act as a catalyst for getting the community to explore this and to begin thinking about grassroots mitigation strategies. You do need to be a bit careful in jointly organising events with other groups, when it works it’s great, but if it runs into problems it can be difficult to keep everyone happy. You will need to ensure that each group is happy with how the event is presented, promoted and facilitated. For example, we are organising some talks with Schumacher College and the local FOE group. Part of this phase also involves reaching out to groups who are usually bypassed or ignored by environmental groups. The local Chamber of Commerce, the Conservative Association. If your Transition Town initiative is going to work it will need the input of a broader range of bodies than has been the case in the past.

50 Transition Modell - Schritt 4
Organisiere einen feierlichen Stapellauf Erwachsenwerden kraftvoll,leidenschaftlich, informativ, inspirierend Zeitpunkt Inhalt Verbindungen herstellen 50 #4 Organise a Great Unleashing This stage creates a memorable milestone to mark the project’s “coming of age”, moves it right into the community at large, builds a momentum to propel your initiative forward for the next period of its work and celebrates your community’s desire to take action. Certainly the Totnes Unleashing created a huge amount of energy and goodwill that has driven it forward ever since. Unleashing is not something to be organised lightly. It is a once off opportunity to bring everyone together and to launch it. If you get it right, peoples’ lasting impressions are that this is a dynamic project which is going to do great things. A poorly organised, ill-attended, half-hearted Unleashing will make the next phase of your work an uphill struggle. It should be a powerful, passionate, informative, and inspirational evening that people will remember for many years to come. Don’t rush it. Timing your Unleashing We estimate that a year after your first End of Suburbia screening is about right, but clearly that depends on your situation. The Official Unleashing of Transition Town Totnes was held in September 2006, preceded by about 10 months of talks, film screenings and events. We scheduled the Unleashing, based on an entirely subjective assessment that energy levels were high enough - the numbers attending events were steadily increasing, more people wanted to stop us in the street to talk about it, and in any case, we were getting impatient to kick it all off. We didn’t rush it, and it was all the more successful because of that. Content It needn’t be just talks, it could include music, food, opera, breakdancing, whatever you feel best reflects your community’s intention to embark on this collective adventure. In Scotland, it’ll include a ceileidh. At Transition Town Totnes’ Unleashing, we featured a presentation by an inspirational author and addictions counsellor, Chris Johnstone. We felt that in order to fire up the community’s eagerness to act, we had to address some of the barriers to personal change He uses observations from his addictions work to show that once we decide to act, we find our power, and that in seemingly impossible situations, it is in positive action that we find qualities and strengths we never knew we had. We also gave a presentation on Peak Oil – but with a positive spin. Instead of gloomily emphasising just how precarious our situation is, we focussed on celebrating the possibilities ahead of us if we harnessed our collective genius and acted together with imagination. Making connections As many opportunities for people to meet each other and to talk were built in as possible. For example, we set up a “talk to someone you don’t know” piece, where people shared their concerns and fears about peak oil and climate change, as well as their visions for the future. They wrote these points up on post-it notes and put them on the wall for all to read. These were subsequently typed up and ed out to everyone who attended. One thing we should have done and which I would recommend is to draw up a list of people to invite, councillors, planners, politicians, local movers and shakers, try and get them all in.

51 Transition Modell - Schritt 5
51 Forme “Arbeitsgruppen” Gründe neue Gruppen Integriere existierende Gruppen Richtlinien Training Arbeitsgruppen und das Leitungskomitee #5. Form working Groups Part of the process of developing an Energy Descent Action Plan is tapping into the collective genius of the community. One of the most effective ways to do this is to set up a number of smaller groups to focus on specific aspects of the process. Each of these groups will develop their own ways of working and their own activities, but will all fall under the umbrella of the project as a whole. Starting up new working groups As organisers of the initiative, you can be quite proactive in getting these groups to form. In Totnes we designed the programme of activities to encourage specific groups. For example, to get the Food group going, we first ran an evening event called “Feeding Totnes - past, present and future” (see left), where speakers addressed each aspect of the issue in turn. This drew in many of the people in the town with an interest in food. This was followed three days later by an Open Space Day on food. This explored in depth how we might relocalisation food production in the Totnes area. From this meeting, a number of initiatives emerged, and people came forward to run the food group. We have since used this model successfully (but not exclusively) for other groups. Bringing in existing groups It may not always be necessary to actually start a new group. Sometimes there may be existing groups in the area who have done lots of work on a particular subject. There may, for example, be strong renewable energy groups, or local food groups. Consider avoiding duplication by going to them and asking if they may like to take on the role of being a Transition Town group, and feed their ideas into the Energy Descent Action Plan process. In Totnes, we are in the process of doing this with a very strong already existing local transport group. Guidelines for working groups In TTT, we provide the following optional guidelines to people considering forming a new group. Each group should consider: - establishing a core of people who steer it, and who meet regularly (recommended minimum of monthly) - remaining open to whomever else wants to come - continually asking itself “who isn’t here that should be here?”, exploring new ‘avenues’ by which new people with relevant skills can be drawn into the group. - inviting for each meeting a “witness” - someone with expertise in a relevant field, to provide perspective and insight, along with suggestions for subsequent witnesses - that their key task is to establish a vision for a low energy future in relation to this field, and to design actions, projects and a timetable to achieve that vision. These will form their section of their Energy Descent Action Plan. - taking full advantage of their relevant section of their website (which may be the wiki that Transition Network makes available to groups) - regularly recording its business on the website - keeping the core team informed of activities so that they can promote them through its bulletin. Training the working groups We’ve learned that you cannot assume that everyone who offers to form and facilitate a group actually has the skills to do so. We have therefore begun to offer training in facilitation and designing successful meetings to all our group conveners. The improvements were immediate and very positive. Contact us at Transition Network for more details. Working groups and the steering group In TTT, the facilitators of each sub group form the bulk of the steering group and meet on a monthly basis. They meet and then have lunch together.

52 Transition Modell - Schritt 6
52 #6. Use Open Space We’ve found Open Space Technology to be a highly effective approach to running meetings for Transition Town initiatives. In theory it ought not to work. A large group of people comes together to explore a particular topic or issue, with no agenda, no timetable, no obvious co-ordinator and no minute takers. However, we have run separate Open Spaces for Food, Energy, Housing, Economics and the Psychology of Change. By the end of each meeting, everyone has said what they needed to, extensive notes had been taken and typed up, lots of networking has had taken place, and a huge number of ideas had been identified and visions set out. Typically, we upload the ideas generated in the event in real time onto our website. This requires someone to ’scribe’ the notes that emerge from the different groups, a broadband connection, 2 laptops, a memory stick or writeable CD and someone able to upload the information onto the website. A digital camera is also useful. Posting it live onto a Wiki site enables anyone anywhere in the world to send in their thoughts on the subject. It also means that the attendees are able to muse over and add comments to when they get home. For our next Open Space, we’ll be inviting specific people to the event, rather than simply hoping they come along. We’ll send them a personal invitation, so they understand how crucial their expertise will be. There are other tools which are similar to Open Space, such as World Cafe, that have many of the same outcomes. The essence is to get people talking, building relationships, discussing ideas and making connections. It can do a great deal to identify priorities for the work ahead in relation to that subject. The essential reading on Open Space is Harrison Owen’s Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide, and you will also find Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’s The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future an invaluable reference on the wider range of such tools. Benutze “Open Space” sollte nicht funktionieren! Eine lange Kaffeepause World Café Harrison Owen - Open Space Technology: A User’s Guide Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future

53 Transition Modell - Schritt 7
Entwickle sichtbare praktische Manifestationen deines Projekts Keine Quasselbude Wähle sorgfältig aus Ködere Zaungäste Team-building Potential Hände schmutzig machen 53 #7 Develop visible practical manifestions of the project It is essential that you avoid any sense that your project is just a talking shop where people sit around and draw up wish lists. Your project needs, from an early stage, to begin to create practical, high visibility manifestations in your community. . These will significantly enhance people’s perceptions of the project and also their willingness to participate. These can take a variety of forms. There’s a difficult balance to achieve here during these early stages. You need to demonstrate visible progress, without embarking on projects that will ultimately have no place on the Energy Descent Action Plan. In Transition Town Totnes, the Food group launched a project called ‘Totnes- the Nut Capital of Britain’ which aims to get as much infrastructure of edible nut bearing trees into the town as possible. With the help of the Mayor, we recently planted some trees in the centre of town, and made it a high profile event (see left). Other early manifestations in Totnes have been the Totnes Pound and the Local Food Guide. Other possibilities might involve solar panels, or hemp/lime plastering, constructing a beautiful cob bus shelter or an alternative currency used for a defined period. They should, at this point, be both uncontroversial and photogenic. These practical manifestations will lure some of the fence sitters into the project - when they start to see infrastructure going in, they may find unfamiliar feelings of enthusiasm carry them right into the heart of the initiative. If you have done the previous steps well, you may well find that the sub-groups start developing their own practical projects automatically. As the momentum builds, you will find practical manifestations bursting out all over the place. Make sure that you get good publicity for all these initiatives. It will be very helpful in building a widespread confidence in what you are doing. Another spin-off benefit of these practical projects is their great team- building potential. A group that meets regularly to discuss food issues may eventually develop good bonds. However, if that group gets together to plant an orchard in a day and share a picnic, the members will leave with a sense of great achievement and deep connections,. A Transition Town project with dirt under its fingernails will develop stronger bonds and carry a lot more credibility.

54 Transition Modell - Schritt 8
Erleichtere die Große Requalifizierung Reparieren, Kochen, Fahrrad reparieren, natürliches Bauen, Dachisolierung, Färben, Kräuterpfade, Gärtnern, Grundlegende Hausenergieeffizienz, Sauerteig-bereitung, Praktischer Nahrungsanbau (Die Liste ist endlos…) z.B. WWOOFing 54 #8. Facilitate the Great Reskilling This generation is truly the most useless that has ever walked the planet (or driven on it). How effective would we be without the power of cheap and abundant fossil fuels to assist us almost every step of the way in our daily activities. I’m very adept at moving pixels around a screen that represent abstractions – but just how useful will that be if it’s all I can do? If we are to respond to peak oil and climate change by moving to a lower energy future and relocalising our communities, then we’ll need many of the skills that our grandparents took for granted. One of the most useful things a Transition Town project can do is to reverse the “great deskilling” of the last 40 years by offering training in a range of some of these skills. What skills ought we teach? Research among the older members of our communities is instructive – after all, they lived before the throwaway society took hold and they understand what a lower energy society might look like. Some examples of courses are: repairing, cooking, cycle maintenance, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless). These Reskilling events fulfil a many crucial functions by: - bringing people together, relaxing and learning new skills - building networks - building a fundamental sense of “can do” - creating a link between old and young as skills are passed on - being practical events that actually put something in place, like a natural building day that produces a cob bus stop - thus creating Practical Manifestations (see #7) In Totnes we run a very popular 10 week evening class called ‘Skilling Up for Powerdown’, which covers peak oil, climate change, food growing, energy, trees, water and waste, economics, all designed to enhance community resilience and reduce our carbon footprint. Your Great Reskilling programme will give people a powerful realisation of their own ability to solve problems, to achieve practical results and to work cooperatively alongside other people. They’ll also appreciate that learning can truly be fun… There are also some very interesting developments afoot in the Further Education world, where some very aware institutions are looking to build curricula around the kind of skills and knowledge we’ll need for what will surely be a very different future.

55 Transition Modell - Schritt 9
Brücken bauen zur lokalen Regierung Wird essentiell Nicht zu lange warten … Offene Türen Gesellschaftsentwicklungsplan Wahlen … ! 55 #9 Build a Bridge to Local Government Whatever the degree of groundswell your Transition Town initiative manages to generate, however many practical projects you’ve initiated and however wonderful your Energy Descent Plan is, you will not progress too far unless you have cultivated a positive and productive relationship with your local authority. Whether it is planning issues, funding issues or providing connections, you need them on board. Contrary to your expectations, you may well find that you are pushing against an open door. For example, I received a surprising call in “Hi, I’m John Smith, Lib Dem leader, just took over the local council in city X. We put Transition Towns in our manifesto, and now we need... ermm... we’re... not quite sure what to do next”. This raises an interesting point about the role of the council in any Transition Initiative. We’ve seen from successes and failures that the best way of orienting the council is to make it very clear right from the outset that their role is “to SUPPORT, not DRIVE”. At this point, most of the people will give a sigh of relief, understanding that council ownership of a project can cause significant problems once they start to encourage high levels of involvement from the local community. It is advisable to start the process of drawing them in as early as possible in the process. For each event you plan to run, draw up a list of people within the local authority (as well as local business, the community and so on) who you feel should be there, and invite them personally. Go and see the relevant people within the Council and introduce yourself and the project. It is key to steer as far clear of any sense of ‘them and us’ as possible. As well as inviting them to attend key events, they may jump at the opportunity to sit on a panel for a screening during the awareness raising stages. Although much of the Council’s development plans may be based on dubious presumptions with regards to oil availability and climate change, their consultations and research documents could be a rich vein of information for your own projects. We are exploring how we might draft up an Energy Descent Action Plan for Totnes in a format similar to the current Community Development Plan. I have a mental picture of, council planners sitting at a table with two documents in front of them – a conventional Community Plan and a beautifully presented Energy Descent Action Plan. It’s sometime in 2009 on the day when oil prices first break the $200 a barrel ceiling. The planners look from one document to the other and conclude that only the Energy Descent Action Plan actually addresses the challenges facing them. And as that document moves centre stage, the community plan slides gently into the bin (we can dream!). In Transition Town Totnes, we have a Liaison with Local Government Group, who develop ways for the TTT initiative to successfully interface with Local Government,maximising the productive ‘edge’ between the two. Eventually the link with Local Government might extend, once an Energy Descent Plan has been produced, to someone running for election to the Local Council on an Energy Descent Plan ticket. If steps 1-7 have been successfully pursued, they should get in by a landslide!

56 Transition Modell - Schritt 10
Ehre die Alten Alte als gesellschaftliche Resource 1930 bis 1960 – Von Ölknappheit zum Überfluss- Mondlandung Mündliche Überlieferung Gesell. Infrastruktur Nicht rückwärts gehen 56 #10 Honour The Elders For those of us born in the 1960s when the cheap oil party was in full swing, it is very hard to picture a life with less oil. Every year of my life (the oil crises of the 70s excepted) has been underpinned by more energy than the previous years. In order to rebuild that picture of a lower energy society, we have to engage with those who directly remember the transition to the age of Cheap Oil, especially the period between 1930 and 1960. As part of the Transition Town Totnes initiative, we have been doing oral history interviews with older people in the area. Totnes at that time imported very little food, people lived at higher densities within the existing buildings. There was very little traffic. Most people had a strong connection to the land, through simple gardening or growing vegetables. People talk of the sense of community they had, with a strong ethos of thrift and ‘enough’ that would be the mark of a more sustainable society. What would it take to rebuild that? Oral histories are also very useful for getting a handle on the skills that people used to have, which links directly to #7. These histories also provide pointers to how we may have to modify our community infrastructures - for example, until the early 80s there were market gardens (now carparks!) within Totnes, supplying the shops in town with a rich variety of produce. Oral histories and historical research can offer fascinating insights into how people used to feed, employ and heat themselves. I do think there is something powerful in making one of your first steps in this process to go to the elders of the community and ask for their input. It is something that in many cultures would be instinctive, but in ours has been sidelined. While you clearly want to avoid any sense that what you are advocating is ‘going back’ or ‘returning’ to some dim distant past, there is much to be learnt from how things were done, what the invisible connections between the different elements of society were and how daily life was supported. Finding out all of this can be deeply illuminating, and can lead to our feeling much more connected to the place we are developing our Transition Town projects. And just to emphasise this point – this is NOT about going backwards. Society is a complex system and complex systems never return to a prior state. What we’re hoping to do is take some of the knowledge of the past, combine it with the brilliant things that we’ve created in the last 50 years and see what emerges that supports our efforts to transition to a much more resilient and lower carbon way of living.

57 Transition Modell - Schritt 11
Lass es gehen, wohin es will… Konzentriere dich auf die Fragen Entfessele die Gemeinschaft Jegliches Gefühl der Kontrolle ist Illusion 57 #11 Let it go where it wants to go… Transition Initiatives are nightmares for control freaks! Although you may start out developing your Transition Town process with a clear idea of where it will go, it will inevitably go elsewhere.. If you try and hold onto a rigid vision, it will begin to sap your energy and appear to stall. Your role is not to come up with all the answers, but to act as a catalyst for the community to design their own transition,. If you keep your focus on the key design criteria – building community resilience and reducing the carbon footprint – you’ll watch as the collective genius of the community enables a feasible, practicable and highly inventive solution to emerge.

58 Transition Modell - Schritt 12
Erstelle und fange an, einen Energieabrüstungs-aktionsplan zu entwerfen und umzusetzen Bewerte die aktuelle Situation Erstelle eine Jahre Vision für Hauptgebiete Integriere den Gemeinschaftsplan wenn möglich Identifiziere Schritte, die getan werden müssen Fang an 58 #12 Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action Plan The local initiatives chooses a timescale of around 15 to 20 years. They then vision a future emitting dramatically less CO2 and pollutants, using dramatically less fossil fuel and that has dramatically higher levels of resilience. What would that future look like when you walked out of your front door in the morning? What would you hear? What would you see? What would be doing that day? When you interacted with your neighbours, what would those interactions involve? They then “backcast”, deciding that in order to achieve that future in year 20, what would have to be in place in year 19, year 18, year 17 and so on. For example, if the community needed to have enough renewable wood for 60% of their domestic heating needs by 2015, when would the wood have to be planted up? When would the land have to be acquired? When would the land trust need to be in place to manage that transaction? What capability does the community have for creating a small business producing super- efficient wood burning stoves locally? When would that small factory have to be tooled up…? And so on… Totnes in the UK produced its EDAP in May 2010 – a vision of what Totnes would look like in 2027, and the outline of the steps needed to get there. It was a two year project, involving hundreds of the local people, and various experts from the world of agriculture, geomapping, transport and building. There’s a big discussion regarding EDAPs for cities, given how much effort it was just for Totnes, a town of 8,000 people – the debate continues... It looks like the EDAP implementation phases will involve significant efforts to rebuild the local economy, aiming to create conditions that encourage the start up of social enterprises to address many of our local needs...

59 Was haben die nur vor…? Typische Aktivitäten
Massenweise Bewusstseinsbildungs-gespräche, Filme, Diskussionen Fertigkeiten teilen Saatgut Tausch Lokales Nahrungsverzeichnis Lokalwährung Mündl. Überlieferungsarchiv Obstbäume pflanzen Bürgerkraftwerke gründen Gemeinschaftsgärten gründen Energiespartips für die Gemeinde Zentrales Kaufen von Bäumen für “städtische Naschgärten” Reparatur Kurse Viele Requalifizierungskurse z.B. Komposttoiletten, Bienenkisten, Fahrradreparatur Mit örtlichen Schulen arbeiten Plastiktüten aussschneiden und Kurse geben wie man Stoffbeutel aus Müll macht Nachhaltigkeitsbücher in die Bibliotheken bringen Car-share Systeme fördern CSA unterstützen Guerilla gardening Permakultur Kurse 59 This description relates to Totnes, where I live. However, all the other communities heading off down this track are devising equally creative ways of rebuilding resilience and reducing carbon

60 Was haben die nur vor… (GB)?
Aus dem März 2012 Roundup: TT Reading: Pflanzen von Maronen und Walnussbäumen T-Belper: Umwandlung von einem Parkplatz in eine Gartenkolonie TT Exmouth: Pflanzen von 50 Bäumen TT-Honiton: Seedy Saturday, Samentausch TT Totnes: 6 Monate Kampagne um Low Carbon Siedlung zu bauen A little patch of Ground- Intergenerationen Gärtnern Initiative REconomy- Lokale Entrepreneur Gipfel TT Ashburton: Mehrere Filme über energieeffiziente Häusersanierung erstellt TT Blandford: Local Food Evening TT Dorchester. Road Show über Gebäudesanierung Penrith: Großer Frühlingsputz mit Kirchen und dem Stadtrat T- Kensal to Kilburn: “Big Dig” – Beetkonstruktionstag TT Leamington: Wolltag mit Kursen über Spinnen und Stricken TT Tunbridge Wells: Erste Elektroauto Ladestation 60

61 Was haben die nur vor…? (Europa und Rest)
Aus dem Mai/Juni 2010 Roundup: 13. Mai war großer Transition 2.0 Filmtag in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz Deventer, NL : Bau einer Siedlung von Earthships Kanutour von Dublin nach Dunegal 330km mit Fundraising für die lokale TT ROOTS TT Sooke (Kanada, Vancouver island)- Transition Café TT Powell River(Ka): Selbstreparatur Manifest T-Guelph(Ka): Zweites Resilienz Festival TT- Guilford (West Australia): Community Resilience Wochenende mit 100 Teilnehmern T-Brasilândia: Schönheitsfestival um lokale Schönheit zu feiern T- Keene (US): Nachbarschafts Ernährungssicherheit Plan mit Biogarten Kurs 61

62 Unsere Wahl… Wir werden die Wende zu einer Niedrigenergie Zukunft durchlaufen, ob wir wollen oder nicht. Es ist besser auf der Welle zu reiten, als von ihr verschlungen zu werden. 62 Just a final point. In England and Wales alone, there are 11,000 parishes (towns and villages), 60 cities and any number of rural communities in between. Each one of those will be going through a non-negotiable energy descent, starting very soon. We can do this proactively or reactively. It’s the difference between riding a wave or getting engulfed by it. That’s the choice that we have right now, right here. Are we going to get proactive, or are we going to wait until we have to react to the pressures that peak oil, climate change and accelerating economic contraction will bring about. The choice is ours. Thankyou.

63 Resilience Indicators
Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius Ratio of car parking space to productive land use Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work by local community Amount of traffic on local roads Number of businesses owned by local people Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency Proportion of the community employed locally Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have been produced within a given radius 63 As we get more methodical with these experiments in relocalisation, we’re seeing some metrics that will help us know if we’re heading in the right direction. Some of these might be:

64 Climate Change – weather extremes

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