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1 Family Office Forum Wiesbaden, 28 April 2015. 2 Member of the Investment Committee Sandra Crowl.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "1 Family Office Forum Wiesbaden, 28 April 2015. 2 Member of the Investment Committee Sandra Crowl."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 1 Family Office Forum Wiesbaden, 28 April 2015

2 2 Member of the Investment Committee Sandra Crowl

3 3 Carmignac Patrimoine: 25 Years of Convictions and Risk Management *50% MSCI ACWI (EUR) (reinvested nets dividends) + 50% Citigroup WGBI All Maturities (EUR) Source: Carmignac Gestion at 27/02/2015 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. European sovereign Debt crisis 2011 Global financial Crisis 2008 Tech bubble 2000 September 11th 2001 Asian crisis 1997 Credit crash 1994 Subprime crisis 2008 Gulf War % C ARMIGNAC P ATRIMOINE A EUR acc +342% R EFERENCE INDICATOR * Performance since launch  Strong long-term convictions based upon major structural themes  Tactical management substantiated by significant adjustments in times of turbulent markets

4 4 Active Management of Exposure Levels Source: Carmignac Gestion, 19/02/2015 Modified DurationEquity exposureEuro Stoxx 50 exposureDollar Exposure Dollar exposure Modified duration Equity exposure Carmignac Patrimoine

5 5 Carmignac Investissement: Thematic Breakdown At 31 December 2010 Source: Carmignac Gestion. 31/12/2010 DEFENSIVE & INNOVATION 16.4% US GROWTH 33.5% 7.8% 12.4% 12.3% OTHERS & CASH ENERGY 15.4% METALS GOLD MINES 2.2% IMPROVED LIVING STANDARDS IN EM STRUCTURAL THEMES: 57.7%CYCLICAL THEMES: 40.1%

6 6 Carmignac Investissement: Thematic Breakdown At 31 March 2015 Source: Carmignac Gestion. 31/03/2015 GLOBAL LEADERS 34.2% US GROWTH 23.5% 29.4% 1.4% 3.4% CASH ENERGY 1.6% MINING & MATERIALS GOLD MINES OTHERS 5.8% 0.7% EM GROWTH STRUCTURAL THEMES: 87.1% CYCLICAL THEMES: 6.4%

7 7 Our Secular View: a More Volatile Economic Cycle Source: Carmignac Gestion, CEIC, 31/12/ US Real GDP US Debt, % of GDP

8 8 How to navigate volatile financial markets through non benchmark investing The New Normal: A World of Financial Repression

9 9 1. Average of China, Singapore, Hong-Kong, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, South Korea, Philippines. (local currency prices) 2. USD prices Source: OECD, DataStream, NBER; Minack Advisors Underlying Trends Remain Deflationnary Positive for companies with pricing power OECD PPI 2 Asia PPI 1 Producer inflation

10 10 “New Generation” Indexed Bonds: Companies with High Visibility Offering Reasonable Growth and Significant Dividend Yield Scarce growth: examples of stock picking Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/12/2014 Health Care Clothing Rail Transportation Switzerland Spain Germany United States 1.7% 2.9% 1.5% 1.7% 13% 6% 14% SectorCountry EPS Growth 2016 Dividend Yield

11 11 Global Conditions Are Disinflationary QE Russia Turkey Canada Australia India China Thailand Oman Morocco A global approach, essential to seizing worldwide opportunities Japan Eurozone Sweden Significant Easing of Monetary Policies In 2015

12 12 Source: Bloomberg, NBER; Minack Advisors The Fed is Wary of a Monetary Policy Mistake Sweden South Korea Denmark Norway Australia New Zealand CENTRAL BANK POLICY RATES

13 13 Eurozone Yields: Powerful Technical Factors… Source: JP Morgan, 26/03/2015 EUR bn for 2015 ECB’s sovereign bond purchases QE as % of gross issuance QE as % of net issuance Germany10768%2,685% France8541%99% Italy7327%97% Spain5337%94% Netherlands2448%183% Belgium1545%141% Austria1261%189% Finland775%96% Ireland746%69% Portugal1057%83% Total39343%140% Fixed Income Strategy

14 14 Eurozone Yields: Yields are Likely to Trend Even Lower Source: Danske Bank Markets, April 2015 Fixed Income Strategy Country0-2 years2-5 years5-10 years10-15 years+15 yearsTotal Germany100% 83%0% 70% Finland100% 42%0% 57% Netherlands100% 34%0% 55% Austria100% 43%0% 53% France100% 13%0% 45% Belgium100% 20%0% 38% Ireland100%51%0% 22% Portugal60%0% 7% Spain24%0% 5% Italy17%0% 3% Total70%57%24%0% 34.1% Percentage of sovereign bonds offering negative yields

15 15 Yield Curve: The ECB’s Ultra-accommodative Stance has Led to the Flattening of Yield Curves Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2015 Fixed Income Strategy Yield curve - ItalyYield curve - Spain 31/12/ /03/ /12/ /03/2015

16 16 ECB: Aggressive QE will Reduce Credit Risk Source : Bloomberg, 17/02/2015 Portugal 10y yield Spain 10y yieldItaly 10y yield Fair value  Weak inflation and growth expectations could warrant further convergence in peripheral sovereign spreads  Clear room for further compression to fair values

17 17 Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2015 Eurozone Yields: Yields are Disconnected from the Fundamentals IFO business climate index - Germany Real 10-year yields - Germany Fixed Income Strategy

18 18 Source: Carmignac Gestion, February 2015 Focusing on Forward-looking Indicators Global leading indicators (proprietary tool)

19 19 A Flexible and Opportunistic Style Enhancing a Total Return Approach Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond

20 20 A Flexible, Non-Benchmarked Philosophy F REE FROM G EOGRAPHICAL AND S ECTORIAL CONSTRAINTS F LEXIBLE A LLOCATION W IDE M ODIFIED D URATION R ANGE Long 0 Short Developed Markets Emerging Markets Credit, Currencies Charles Zerah Fund Manager Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond AUM: € 1 187M

21 21 Active and Opportunistic Approach Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2015 Financial CoCos (% of total assets) EM local debt (% of total assets) Japanese Yen Exposure We actively manage our exposure to performance drivers according to our macro scenario We can pass from negative to positive currency exposure within few days

22 22 United Kingdom: A Strong Pound Sterling and Weak Inflation Could Bring Down Yields Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 28/02/2015 RHS: Bloomberg, 31/03/2015 * At 16/04/2015 UK 10-year yield vs inflation (as %) Trade-weighted GBP index 10-year yield: 1.6%*

23 23 New Zealand: Could Significant Deflation Risks Result In Lower Yields? Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2015 * 16/04/2015 New Zealand 10-year yields 10-year yield: 3.2%* Inflation (%) Inflation forecast in 1 year (%) Entry point

24 24  Persistently weak inflation  25 basis points interest rate cut  Extension of QE, which now equates to 333% of net issuance Sweden: Low Inflation has Led The Central Bank To Take An Ultra Accommodative Stance Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 28/02/2015 RHS: JP Morgan, 15/02/2015 Inflation in Sweden (annual change, as %)

25 25 Active, Opportunistic Management With Regular Profit- Taking Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2015 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond ‘s Dollar exposure Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond’s allocation to European peripheral government bonds EUR/USD

26 26 Source: Bloomberg, 10/04/2015 Dollar: Monetary Policy Differential Benefits the Dollar vs. the Euro EUR/USD German/US 2-year yield spread Fixed Income Strategy

27 27 Source: Carmignac Gestion, 10/04/2015 Currencies: We Favour the Dollar While Diversifying our Currency Risk Our positioning:  Significant dollar exposure  No exposure to EM currencies Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: net currency exposure

28 28 Credit Markets: Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of European Financial System Source: BoA ML, Carmignac Gestion, January 2014 Size of shock Price of Risk Vulnerability of Financial System Vulnerability of Financial System with Tighter Regulation Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk

29 29 Credit Markets: Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of European Financial System Source: BoA ML, Carmignac Gestion, January 2014 AT1 Coco O-SIFI G-SIFI CCCB CCB MDA Basel 3 CRD4 Solvency 2 Leverage ratio Bailinable buffer LCRNSFR SSM SRM SRF DGS AQRCCAR SPE MPE OLA RRM Bailin Living wills PONV PRA Liikanen Volker Dodd Frank Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk

30 30 Credit: the Subordinated Segment (CoCos) still Offers Attractive Valuation Source: Bloomberg, 10/04/2015 CoCos Issuance (in million euros) Credit spreads of « CoCos» (in basis points)  Issuance should keep Rising  Issuance Spreads have significantly tightened since 2013 (from 730 bp to 440 bp)  The latest Spread Widening offers an Upside Potential on « CoCos »

31 31 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond : Allocation of Modified Duration Illustrates the Balanced Strategy N.B. : la liste des contributions n’est pas exhaustive. Source : Carmignac Gestion, 17/04/2015 Overall Modified Duration: 403 pb Financial Credit : 86 pb CoCos 65 pb Subordinated 18 pb Senior 3 pb Peripheral Sovereigns: 48 pb Spain 20 pb Portugal 12 pb Italy 9 pb Greece 7 pb Other developed market gov. bonds: 263 pb UK 143 pb New-Zealand 69 pb Sweden 36 pb Australia 23 pb

32 32 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: Performance Attribution Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2015 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Sovereign bonds484 Periphery250 Other developed countries234 Credit199 Finance160 Other39 Currencies508 Net performance1, Other developed market gov. bonds, especially from New Zealand and the UK Peripheral sovereign debt (e.g. Spain, Italy, Portugal) Financials, supported by contingent convertibles Currency strategy, drawing strength from our dollar exposure Net performance in Q (basis points) ++

33 33 Conclusion: Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Source: Carmignac Gestion, 14/04/2015  Disinflation and accommodative monetary policies around the world have established promising conditions for bond markets  Profit-taking on our peripheral sovereign debt while reallocating towards pockets of value in the bond universe (United Kingdom, New Zealand, European credit)  Tactical management of our dollar exposure through currency risk diversification  Continued flexible and opportunistic approach to bond and foreign exchange markets in order to maximise performance

34 34 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond in Perspective *JP Morgan GBI Global (EUR) Source: Carmignac Gestion at 31/03/2015 Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Morningstar Ranking (quartile) Perf. YTD % 3 years % Charles Zerah Fund Manager Morningstar Rating Morningstar Rating 3 years Overall Reference Indicator* % Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond % 3-Year Performance 1 1

35 35 Carmignac Portfolio Capital Plus Maximising risk-adjusted returns through a multi-strategy portfolio Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performances may vary over time. Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2015 Rates strategy117 Peripheral gov. bonds101 Core gov. bonds16 Credit strategy36 Currency strategy75 Equities90 Money market9 Net Performance Credit portion was supported by the strength of the European financial bonds Peripheral sovereigns strongly contributed to performance over the first quarter Our exposure to the USD positively contributed to our currency strategy Exposure to European equity markets added performance over the past months Q1 Net Performance at 31/03/2015 (basis points) ++  Generating risk-adjusted returns through Directional and Relative strategies  Managed with a maximum ex-ante volatility of 2.5% on annual basis Carlos Galvis Fund Manager Carmignac Portfolio Capital Plus AUM: € 3 580M

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