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111 Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments Wiesbaden – 06 May 2014.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "111 Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments Wiesbaden – 06 May 2014."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 111 Our View of the World Economy and What it Means for your Investments Wiesbaden – 06 May 2014

2 222 J EAN M ÉDECIN, CFA Member of the Investment Committee

3 333 United States

4 444 Growth Benefits from the End of the Fiscal Drag Confirmation Expected on the Investment Front * estimates Source: LHS: CBO, JP Morgan, 09/12/2013 RHS: Carmignac Gestion, CEIC, 31/12/2013 Fiscal drag effect (as % of GDP) Fiscal drag effect (as % of GDP) Non-residential investment

5 555 Long Term Rates Reached All Time Lows in : Rising Long-term Yields, as Fed Initiates “Tapering” Source: Bloomberg, 09/04/2014 US 10 years government bond yield Tapering: "In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labour market conditions, the committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases”. Ben Bernanke, 18 th December 2013

6 666 t0t0t0t0 Economic recovery The Nature of the Interest Rate Risk in 2014 With QE Long-term interest rate Time Economic recovery t2t2t2t2 T1: time when recovery starts with QE T2: time when recovery starts without QE Source: Nomura, 22/10/2013 t1t1t1t1 Without QE Long-term interest rates with and without QE

7 777 The FED’s Dilemna Active Management of Modified Duration will be Key Source: Carmignac Gestion, Bloomberg, 28/04/2014 Modified duration as at 15/11/13: Normalisation of US monetary policy  For the third time in as many meetings, the FOMC voted to continue its QE tapering  However, it has been noted that:  inflation remains below the Fed’s long-term target  the FOMC will no longer rely on unemployment reaching 6.5% to raise its key interest rates Normalisation of US monetary policy  For the third time in as many meetings, the FOMC voted to continue its QE tapering  However, it has been noted that:  inflation remains below the Fed’s long-term target  the FOMC will no longer rely on unemployment reaching 6.5% to raise its key interest rates Interest Rate Strategy

8 888 A Competitive Advantage Linked to the Energy Revolution Source: Left: IEA Data, 2012 Right: Stifel, November 2013 * estimates Global Natural Gas Prices (USD/MMBTU) Japan NGL EU Natural Gas US Natural Gas X5 US Ethylene production capacity (000 t/y) Equity Strategy Stock in the portfolio: LyondellBasell, a leading world polyolefins producer Stock in the portfolio: LyondellBasell, a leading world polyolefins producer

9 999 Source: INGAA Foundation, Inc *Capital expenditures reported in 2011 Study were converted from 2010$ to 2012$ using a 4% inflation factor. Comparison between 2011 and 2014 studies on capital expenditures Billions of real dollars Oil ServicesSchlumberger Core Laboratories Construction and Engineering Jacobs Engineering Group Fluor Corporation Oil ServicesSchlumberger Core Laboratories Construction and Engineering Jacobs Engineering Group Fluor Corporation Our stocks to play this theme Equity Strategy Shale Oil & Gas: Driving higher Energy related Capital Expenditures

10 10 Europe

11 11 Structural Reforms are Positive and Necessary Source: J.D.Power and Associates, McGraw Hill Financial., LMC Automotive, 31/12/2013 Figures for 2014 and 2015 are forecasts, 2013 figures are forecasts for France France Car Production Spain Car Production Light Vehicle Production France vs Spain Light Vehicle Production France vs Spain

12 12 Is the Eurozone Facing a Deflationary Threat? Germany is Not Escaping from Deflationary Pressures Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014 Right: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 Private sector lending, YoY German inflation Household lending (consumer and other) Residential mortgages Non-financial business lending

13 13 Fixed Income: ECB’s Targeted Response to Recent Crises Source: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 Liquidity crisis Solvency Crisis Inflation? Itraxx Senior Financials Spanish 10- year yield LTRO Draghi “put” Is the ECB ready to act? Eurozone inflation

14 14 Fixed Income: Portugal Should also Benefit from European Convergence Fundamentals are improving in terms of growth and budget forecasts Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 RHS: Japanese Ministry of Finance, March 2014 *medium and long-dated bonds Portugal Italy Spain Allocation to European peripheral government bonds: 24.5% of which Portugal: 3.2% Allocation to European peripheral government bonds: 24.5% of which Portugal: 3.2% Weekly Japanese investment abroad* Change in 10-year government bond yields Fixed Income Strategy

15 15 Credit: a Point in the Credit Cycle Beneficial to Europe Source: RBS Credit Strategy, Bloomberg, 31/03/2014 STABILISATIONRELEVERAGING BUBBLECONTRACTION Fixed Income Strategy European Economy is in a Phase of Stabilisation:  Moderate Growth  Low Inflation  Deleveraging  Low Default Rates European Economy is in a Phase of Stabilisation:  Moderate Growth  Low Inflation  Deleveraging  Low Default Rates European Credit: 19%

16 16 Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of European Financial System Size of shock Price of Risk Vulnerability of Financial System Vulnerability of Financial System with Tighter Regulation Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk AT1 Coco O-SIFI G-SIFI CCCB CCB MDA Basel 3 CRD4 Solvency 2 Leverage ratio Bailinable buffer LCRNSFR SSM SRM SRF DGS AQRCCAR SPE MPE OLA RRM Bailin Living wills PONV PRA Liikanen Volker Dodd Frank Corporate Bonds: We Favor the Financial Sector Fixed Income Strategy 4.92% 6.83% Average Yield SubordinateSubordinate Contingent Convertibles Source: Carmignac Gestion. Average yields are provided for Carmignac Patrimoine as of 31/03/2014.

17 17 Emerging Countries

18 18 Emerging Countries: Adjustments have been Made to Address Deficits Source: Emerging Advisors Group, EM Monthly Chartbook, March 2014 % GDP 12m cum % GDP sa 3mma India Trade Balance and Current Account Current Account Trade Balance (right scale)

19 19 Valuations and Sentiment are Supportive of a Rebound in EM Equities Source: Left: Thomson Reuters Datastream, Les cahiers verts de l’économie, April 2014; Right: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Fund Manager Survey, 15/04/2014 Emerging Markets P/E vs. Developed Markets P/E* Global Investor Positioning relative to history (z-score) *MSCI EM and MSCI World UnderownedOverowned Japan UK Eurozone US EM EM cheap EM expensive

20 20 Chinese Demographic Dividend is Coming to an End Automation is expected to rise significantly in China Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013 China: Convergence of robot cost and wages Avg. Industrial robot unit cost 2 years Foxconn salary Hourly wage x 24 hours x # of days in 2 years2 years Foxconn salary = USD

21 21 Fanuc: A Long Term Growth Story 50% of Sales in Asia ex-Japan Source: IFR, Gavekal, 2013 Fanuc, a leader in automation and industrial robots  Low penetration of industrial robots in Emerging countries is a strong growth opportunity  A competition limited by high barriers to entry  Margins protected by a high value added products Estimated number of multipurpose industrial robots per manufacturing employees General industries Automotives Equity Strategy JapanChinaGermanyUSMalaysiaTaiwanSpainS. KoreaFrance

22 22 Chinese Markets Continue to offer Great Opportunities Source: CICC Equity Strategy Research, March 2014 Performance 2013: MSCI AC World index industry groups vs. internet & gaming Performance 2013: MSCI AC World index industry groups vs. internet & gaming Macau Casinos  Wynn Macau, Sands China Internet  Baidu Infant Milk  China Mengniu Dairy Macau Casinos  Wynn Macau, Sands China Internet  Baidu Infant Milk  China Mengniu Dairy Our Chinese Stocks Equity Strategy

23 23 Allocation Strategy

24 24 C ORE STRATEGIES /L ONG - TERM CONVICTIONS T ACTICAL STRATEGIES /M ANAGEMENT OF MODIFIED DURATION Carmignac Patrimoine: Our Modified Duration Breakdown shows our Rate Convergence Conviction Source: Carmignac Gestion, 14/04/2014 Finance 117bp Energy 14bp Credit 169bp Peripheral sov. 283bp 283bp Italy 138bp Spain79bp Reducing interest rate risk Consumer Sector 12bp Portugal35bp Total modified duration: -23bp Focus on spreads Ireland22bp United States -370bp Safe haven sov. -493bp -493bp Safe haven sov. -493bp -493bp Japan-49bp UK-26bp Germany-49bp Fixed Income Strategy

25 25 Carmignac Investissement: Portfolio Construction Equity Strategy

26 26 Equity Allocation: Summary and Prospects Geographic Area Macro- economic Visibility Investors’ positioning Valuation Potential for political surprise Current equity weighting Possible Evolution of Allocation United States 44.0% Europe 25.5% Emerging 17.2% Japan 9.4% Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/03/2014 Stratégie actions Equity Strategy

27 27 Nur für Informationszwecke / Ausschließlich für professionelle Investoren Die in dieser Präsentation enthaltenen Daten und Informationen werden ausschließlich für Informationszwecke zur Verfügung gestellt. Sie stellen weder ein Angebot zum Kauf, eine Aufforderung zum Verkauf oder eine Anlageberatung dar, noch sind sie vertraglich bindend. Dieses Dokument kann inhaltlich verändert werden, ohne dass über diese Änderungen vorab informiert werden muß. Die in der Vergangenheit erzielte Wertentwicklung ist keine Garantie für künftige Ergebnisse. Die aufgeführten Wertentwicklungen verstehen sich nach Abzug von Verwaltungsgebühren. Der Wert einer Anlage kann bei Marktschwankungen steigen oder fallen, und Anleger können unter Umständen ihren ursprünglich investierten Betrag verlieren. Die in dieser Präsentation zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen sind nicht für Personen oder Einrichtungen in einem Land oder Rechtsraum gedacht, in denen ihre Verbreitung oder Nutzung den geltenden Gesetzen oder Vorschriften widersprechen oder di Verwaltungsgesellschaft dazu verpflichten würden, den Zulassungsvorschriften in diesen Rechtsräumen zu entsprechen. Risikoskala von 1 (geringstes Risiko) bis 7 (höchstes Risiko), wobei 1 nicht eine risikolose Investition bedeutet. Anlagen in die Fonds von di Verwaltungsgesellschaft sind auf Grundlage der aktuellen rechtlichen Unterlagen (Verkaufsprospekt, die wesentlichen Anlegerinformationen und Jahresberichte) vorzunehmen. Der Prospekt sowie das KIID sind am Geschäftssitz von Carmignac Deutschland GmbH, Junghofstraße , Frankfurt am Main, erhältlich. Diese Dokumente sind auch auf der Internetseite abrufbar. Diese sind kostenlos und in Papierform in Deutschland bei (FCP) Carmignac Deutschand GmbH (HRB 92565), Junghofstraße 18-24, Frankfurt am Main und (SICAV) Marcard, Stein & Co. AG, Ballindamm 36, Hamburg und in Österreich bei der Ersten Bank der Österreichischen Sparkassen AG, OE / Produktmanagement Wertpapiere, Petersplatz 7, 1010 Wien, erhältlich. Urheberrecht: Die auf dieser Präsentation veröffentlichten Informationen sind das ausschließliche Eigentum von ihren Besitzern als auf jeder Seite aufgeführt Nicht vertragliches Dokument, 02/05/2014 Carmignac Gestion – Vermögensverwaltungsgesellschaft (AMF-Zulassungsnummer GP vom 13/03/1997) Aktiengesellschaft mit einem Grundkapital von Euro - Handelsregister Paris B Place Vendôme – Paris – Tel : Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg Tochtergesellschaft der Carmignac Gestion OGAW-Verwaltungsgesellschaft (CSSF-Zulassungsnummer vom 10/06/2013) Aktiengesellschaft mit einem Grundkapital von Euro - Handelsregister Luxemburg B67549 City Link - 7, rue de la Chapelle L-1325 Luxembourg - Tel (+352) Disclaimer


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