Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart How to interpret and sell numerical models ? A personal view András Bárdossy Universität Stuttgart

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Modelling Mathematical description of a natural system N  M –Abstraction –Reduction Purpose of modelling –Decision support –Control –Specific problem solving (also as part of a chain) Realization –Computer programs User friendly Expert use

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Modelling 1.Need – problem  Solution ? 2.Technical questions 3.Quantification (Models) 4.Choice or decision 5.Acceptance (or not) 1.Public or institutions 2.General experts 3.Specialists 4.Institutions 5.Public

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Experience of more then 25 years in developing and applying numerical models –Non-University Research –Consulting –Different Universities Theoretical orientation

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 1.Computer model for the calculation of surface runoff, erosion, N and P transport in small catchments Rainfall runoff model Universal soil loss equation N and P model MS-DOS for PCs

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 1.Computer model for the calculation of surface runoff, erosion, N and P transport in small catchments Rainfall runoff model Universal soil loss equation N and P model MS-DOS for PCs Complicated in use and theory Trying to solve too much Need from above FAO  Government project

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 2. Forecasting water demand in a catchment for reservoir operation Fuzzy-rule based model Using meteorological forecasts MS-DOS for PCs

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 2. Forecasting water demand in a catchment for reservoir operation Fuzzy-rule based model Using meteorological forecasts MS-DOS for PCs Unusual from theoretical viewpoint Clear question and answer Need from user  Problem solving

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 3. Stochastic simulation of wastewater quality parameters with respect to sampling strategies Bootstrap based Using observational data MS-DOS and Windows for PCs

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 3. Stochastic simulation of wastewater quality parameters with respect to sampling strategies Bootstrap based Using observational data MS-DOS and Windows for PCs Unusual from theoretical viewpoint Clear question and answer User inconvenience for input was tolerated Need from user  Problem solving

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 4. Forecasting the heart rate for pacemaker control Fuzzy rule based system (Extremely fast) Using different sensors Developed in team with experts (Medical and Hardware) Hardware realization

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 4. Forecasting the heart rate for pacemaker control Fuzzy rule based system (Extremely fast) Using different sensors Developed in team with experts (Medical and Hardware) Hardware realization Other products available on the market (costs for change are high) Demand from above (EC)

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 5. Stochastic simulation of precipitation in high temporal reolution Simulate annealing (MCMC) based algorithm (publ. 1998) Requires regionalization of parameters Not sophisticated user interface

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Models developed 5. Stochastic simulation of precipitation in high temporal reolution Simulate annealing (MCMC) based algorithm (publ. 1998) Requires regionalization of parameters Not sophisticated user interface Need as part of the urban channel planning chain Many users served by a few centres (1 / State) Good division of tasks

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Demand is crucial for success –User demand and not only political –Filling gaps is often needed Chain for decision making Specific question –Users do not like to change running models – systems Models are needed if answers are not clear –Complicated systems + work  trivial statements ??? –Complicated systems + work  useless statements ??? Boundary conditions have to be included Conditions for implementation should be considered

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Complexity of a model is not a problem –The user should Understand the idea Trust the method (advantages and disadvantages should be communicated!) Uncertainty !!  Decision User friendliness is an advantage –Combination of expert knowledge and computer programming profession User interface – programmer Main method – specialist Good communication

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Development of methods and models is one of our academic duties Advanced methods might sell or might only help for future development  Preparedness Communication of knowledge Open for listening to problems Concentrate on strengths  technical realizations reasonable task partition

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Thanks !

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart Uncertainty of the rating curve Geostatistical interpolation using external information Statistical evaluation of groundwater level changes Computer program for the derivation of fuzzy rules from observational data Rainfall-runoff model for the German part of the Rhine catchment Classification of atmospheric circulation patterns using fuzzy rules Downscaling precipitation and Temperature for climate change scenarios

Universität StuttgartInstitut für Wasserbau, Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie und Geohydrologie Numerical Modelling – Policy Interface Workshop 12. March 2007 Universität Stuttgart