Mechanical Engineering in Germany, Europe and worldwide Maschinenbau Mechanical Engineering in Germany, Europe and worldwide EMF Mechanical Engineering Committee 26. – 27. September 2011 September 2011

Germany: Maschinenbau / Mechanical Engineering Überblick / overview Umsatz / sales (in billion) 2008: 210,5 Mrd. Euro (+7,1% gegenüber Vorjahr) 2009: 161,9 Mrd. Euro (-23,1% gegenüber Vorjahr) 2010: 176,4 Mrd. Euro (+9,0% gegenüber Vorjahr) Beschäftigte / employment 2009: 873.206 (-2,6% gegenüber Vorjahr) 2010: 845.183 (-3,2% gegenüber Vorjahr) Juni 2011: 865.413 (+3,0%gegenüber Vorjahreszeitraum) Produktion/ production 2008: +5,0% gegenüber Vorjahr 2009: -26,0% gegenüber Vorjahr 2010: +10,2% gegenüber Vorjahr Produktivität / productivity 2008: - 0,1% gegenüber Vorjahr 2009: -15,7% gegenüber Vorjahr 2010: +6,8% gegenüber Vorjahr Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Germany: Maschinenbau / Mechanical engineering Beschäftigte / employeers Erläuterungen / notes: nur Betriebe mit 50 und mehr Beschäftigten Companies with 50 employers an dmore keine Leiharbeiter in den Zahlen enthalten no agency workers included aber / but befristet Beschäftigte, temporary workers Mitte 2011 hat die Be- schäftigung um 20.000 Menschen gegenüber dem Vorjahr zu- genommen. + 20.000 employers in comparison to 2010 Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Maschinenbau / Mechanical engineering Umsatz in Milliarden Euro – Jahre / sales in billion - years 2009 brach der Umsatz in Folge der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise massiv um 23 % ein. 2009 share of sales went down to – 23% Die 2010 einsetzende Erholung war kräftiger als erwartet. Dennoch liegen die Umsätze noch um 16% unter dem Jahr 2008. Der VDMA rechnet für 2011 mit einem Plus von 14 %. expectation for 2011 + 14% Sonstiges Ausland/ other foreign countries Eurozone Germany Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Umsatz in Milliarden Euro – Quartale / Umsatz in Milliarden Euro – Quartale / sale in billion – quaterly period Sonstiges Ausland / other foreign countries Eurozone Germany Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Germany: Exportquote trotz Krise stabil / export ratio stable Die Aufwärts- entwicklung im Maschinenbau wird vom Export getrieben. positive development because of high export ratio Die Exporte expan- dierten im 1. Halb- jahr um 18,2 %. export ratio + 18,2% in the first six month of 2011 Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Germany: Auftragseingang (saisonbereinigt) Incoming orders Der VDMA erwartet einen Fortsetzung des positiven Trends. In 2012 ist allerdings mit niedrigeren Wachs- tumsraten zu rechnen. Expectation for 2012 low groth / increase in the mechanical enginerring sector in Germany expectated growth of production in 2012 + 4% in Germany Index 2005 = 100 Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Germany: Lohnquote rückläufig wages declining Viele Betriebe im Maschinenbau nutzten die Krise auch zur Steigerung der Effizienz. Dadurch war es möglich, die Lohn- quote abzusenken. many companies used the crisis to keep down wages Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Deutscher Maschinenbau – German mechanical engineering Export als Wachstumstreiber - export responsible for growth Reale Veränderung gegenüber Vorjahreszeitraum in Prozent german export to other regions Quelle: VDMA Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Umsatzentwicklung im internationalen Maschinenbau Development of sales in international mechanical engineering forecst 2011 Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Share of sales worlwide (sales in billions) Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

World mechanical engineering revenue 2010 – Five Countries are Dominating World mechanical engineering revenue 2010 – Top 10 countries Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

World mechanical engineering revenue 2010 – High Dynamics in China World mechanical engineering revenue 2010 – Top 10 countries Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Sales by region Sales by region Asia 49% China 2% Japan 13% EU (27) 29% Germany 11% America 17% Northamerica 14% Latin-America 3% Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Hierarchy and developement of international markets Back up 2 Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Concentration in the EU in Germany, Italy, F, UK, E Back up 3 76 % Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Downturn hits … (change rates) Back up 4 all countries of the EU 27 Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Forecast Year 2011 Strong growth expected speed of growth increases recovery in Germany and EU mainly based on exports recovery in USA looses pace recovery in China speeding up lower level than before crisis (2005) growth not everywhere (depending on country, sector) Employment increasing sector of contract workers, with low pay and precarious working conditions Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Global economy: Optimistic Expectations Global economic growth Y-o-y variation in (real) GDP in per cent Forecasts 5.1 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.6 2.9 3.0 2.2 -0.6 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Source : IMF, October 2010 Chart: IG Metall Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Expectations in Germany: ME Better Than Other Sectors ME: Industry forecasts for 2011 Y-o-y variation in per cent Mechanical engineering 10.0 Automotive industry 8.0 Metalworking and 7.4 electrical industry Railway construction, shipbuilding, 7.0 aircraft construction Electrical engineering 6.7 Metal products 5.0 Metal production 5.0 and processing Source: Ifo Institute autumn 2010, own calculations by IG Metall Chart: IG Metall Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

The Sources of Growth Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Employment: Back To The Level of 2005 ? year 2011 -6,2 Prozent Rückgang yoy im 2. Quartal 10 Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Future Beyond 2011: Worldwide trends Demands on unions Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Megatrends and Challenges Limitation and availability of natural ressources Renewables, clean energy, energy storage Electro mobility Global infrastucture In year 2020 there should be 1 million electrical cars on german roads. New propulsion technologies are chances for big sales potentialities There is an investment volume of 1000 billions of Euro in the next 20 years in the energy market Big chances in the wind turbine sector, solar energy sector Till the year 2020 there should be the installation of 1000 biofuel constructions worldwide“ Only 12 percent of all motors are based on electrcity, electrical drives: 88 percent of the drives waist energy In the midterm a sving of 25-30 percnt is possible 2,6 billion people are not connected to the used water supply chain , 1 billion people suffer becuase of the non-availability of water. The demand on action in infrastructure measures are high. Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Future Beyond 2011 Green technology chemicals Energy infrastructure Agriculture & forestry Energy storage Energy production Real estate Green technology Recycling & waste Mobility Water & sewage Production & industry Air & environnment chemicals Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Change in Mechanical Engineering Slow growth in Europe and America; Increasing production in emerging economies EU + NA + J: to develop and defend high-end- segment; to develop mid-end-segment From series production to special production Change in the value-creation chain: From the purchase of simple parts to the purchase of complete groups of components and high-tech products First transfer of production and assembly Then transfer of construction and R&D Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand 26

Change in Mechanical Engineering Emerging economies: from imitator to innovator; from low-end to mid-end segment Emerging economies: stronger promotion of R&D as well as innovative companies Setting up production and joint ventures in BRIC- countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand 27

Consequences for employees 1. higher flexibility: 1.2 geographic mobility 1.1 time flexibility 1.3 knowledge has to be up to date every time 1.4 interdisciplinary knowledge 1.5 having to pay to pay for their own continuing training / education 5. higher pressure on wages because of low-cost competition 4. less security 4.1 job security 4.2 income security 2. higher physical fitness 3. higher productivity 2.1 to be able to work longer Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

schools/universities and companies Trade union responses Maintaining social standards Training the new generation Qualified and good work Limiting agency/temporary work, combatting low wages Supporting the transition to ˝green˝ mechanical engineering Increased efforts from governments and companies concerning R&D and cooperation with high schools/universities and companies Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand 29

Thank you very much for your attention! Thank you for your attention Thank you very much for your attention! Sascha Treml Branchenpolitik Maschinenbau IG Metall Vorstand

Kontakt Sascha Treml IG Metall Vorstand VB 02 Betriebs- und Branchenpolitik Wilhelm-Leuschner-Straße 79 60329 Frankfurt am Main Tel.: 069-6693-2753 Fax: 069-6693-2128 mobil: 0160-5331007 E-Mail: Sascha.Treml@igmetall.de