Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 1 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Analysis with Remi Policy Insight in Nordrhein Westfalen – Including.

Präsentation zum Thema: "Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 1 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Analysis with Remi Policy Insight in Nordrhein Westfalen – Including."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 1 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Analysis with Remi Policy Insight in Nordrhein Westfalen – Including Sensitivity Experiments Rüdiger Budde RWI-Essen

2 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 2 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Agenda Introductory remarks Specifia of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" modell Selecting an industrial strategy Quantifying the potential effects Conclusions

3 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 3 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Northrhine - Westphalia Ruhr area Federal Republic of Germany Neighbouring countries Specifis of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" Model Oberhausen

4 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 4 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde List of Projects with the REMI model “Effects of the Metrorapid Railway in Nordrhein-Westfalen” 3 Studies on the impact on new industrial sites on the local economy and its neighbourhood

5 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 5 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde City of Oberhausen (current situation) 220 000 inhabitants Lies in the heart of the Ruhr-area In 1987 7% of the employees were occupied in the steel industry In 2002 90% of the jobs in the steel industry were vanished Due to industrial changes huge brown fields emerged First successful settlements while restructuring the service sector High unemployment rate (11%) Objective 2 area up to 2006 (This status might be prolonged.)

6 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 6 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde The Regional Economic Strategy To develop the new industrial site Maximize the potential employment that can be settled on the available brown field. Prevent harmful competition between old industries and new settlers.

7 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 7 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Alternative facilities of operating a commercial site stores specialized in retail trade industrial park with a focus on traditional services industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture jobs share of the totaljobs share of the totaljobs share of the totaljobs share of the total sum of all jobs2010420090009700 retail stores51025%2105% research and development 90010%97010% services for real estate property 90010%4855% computing services 270030%97010% logistic60030%42010% healthcare225025%291030% other services90045%252060%225025%242525% manufacture105025% medical technology 194020%

8 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 8 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde The results refer to the average of the first four years of production after achieving the aimed degree of efficiency Year of reference is 2008

9 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 9 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Sensitivity analysis Scenario 1 The model is used with all standard implications. Furthermore it is implied that there will be no regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation Scenario 2 The model is used with all standard implications. The investment finds itself in the position of regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation

10 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 10 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in the Ruhr-area (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade 2.8501.6002.510 Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 5.9003.5805.610 Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 13.8506.78012.520 Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture) 14.0707.69012.590

11 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 11 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in the remaining part of NRW (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade 370-550160 Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 800-880430 Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 1.780-2.250890 Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture 1.800-2.040860

12 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 12 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in whole State (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade 3.2201.0502.670 Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 6.7002.7006.040 Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 15.6304.53013.410 Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture 15.8705.65013.450

13 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 13 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Expected occupational effects in whole Northrhine-Westphalia (in relative figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade 1.600.521.33 Industrial park with a focus on traditional services 1.600.641.44 Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises 1.740.501.49 Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture) 1.640.581.39

14 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 14 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde On the basis of the research results The elaborated concept The Industrial park with a focus on health- care including manufacture In order to attract potential customers as well as potential investors a theme park on healthcare is implemented within the industrial park Future Park O.Vision

15 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 15 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Future Park O.Vision

16 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 16 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Evaluation of “O.Vision” themepark (public funding where possible) industrial park (private funding only) phase of construction buildings Infrastucture Exhibitions buildings and the infrastucture used method I-O tables, (due to international tendering procedures, there was no way to regionalize the figures) phase of operating operating Themepark operating all settled enterprises used methodRemi –Standard Model

17 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 17 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde dimension theme- park (1) industrial park (2) relation (2) /( 1) direct potential of occupation working years 132256364.3 indirect potential of occupation working Years 92939754.3 contribution to the GDP Mill. €110.94373.9 Expected developement while building the themepark and the industrial park

18 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 18 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Occupational effects of the themepark (sensitive analysis) Direct employees in the Themepark 175 Scenario 1 No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Direct and indirect jobs Ruhr-area 290 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 39 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 329 Ratio of Occupation: 1,8 Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area 205 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia -34 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 171 Ratio of Occupation: 0,98 Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area 219 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 18 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 237 Ratio of Occupation: 1,35

19 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 19 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Occupational effects of the industrial park (sensitive analysis) Direct employees in the inustrial park 7.089 Scenario 1 No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Direct and indirect jobs Ruhr-area 10.318 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 1.985 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 12.303 Ratio of Occupation: 1,74 Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area 5.590 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia -1.216 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 4.432 Ratio of Occupation: 0,62 Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area 9.650 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 1.012 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 10.662 Ratio of Occupation: 1.50

20 Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 20 8. 6. 2004 Rüdiger Budde Conclusions Distinct positive impact on employment in the Ruhr area Success of the strategy as a whole, highly depends on situation investment finds itself in market conditions –Inter-regional competition –Inter-industrial competition