Possible Economic Effects of Gentrification in the City of Zürich Urban & Spatial Economics AS 2013 Renger van Nieuwkoop Presentation by Denis Metz and Remo Bebié

Definition of Gentrification Urban & Spatial Economics2 Gebhardt et. al. (2007) Phenomenon linked to Urban development Three Dimensions – Structural improvement and structural regeneration – Social regeneration – Symbolic regeneration

Process with Conflicts Urban & Spatial Economics3 Positive – Chance to improve – Decrease in crime rates – Increase in economic activity Negative – Increase in rent, taxes and other items – Displacement of low income residents – Segregation Leitungsgruppe des NFP 54 (2011)

Gentrification in Switzerland Urban & Spatial Economics4 Rérat & Lees (2010), p. 129 Special situation: Economically stable Swiss tax system Institutional framework Owner-occupation

Gentrification in Zürich Pronounced change in Centre No clear trend for suburbs as a whole Urban & Spatial Economics5 Heye & Leuthold (2006), p. 26

Distance from the Center Proxy is travel time to Zürich Mainstation (HB) by public transport Illustrates time- cost of travel to center Urban & Spatial Economics6 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2009), p. 12

Assessing Quality of Housing Estimated quality of housing is lowest in circles 4 and 5 and northern city limits Urban & Spatial Economics7 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2009), p. 22

Assessing Quality of Housing Urban & Spatial Economics8 Hardstrasse in city circle 5 Ottikerstrasse in city circle 6 Source: Panoramino/Google maps

Assessing Quality of Housing Urban & Spatial Economics9 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2009) Linear Regression to explain gross rents Utilization of apartement- (W) and environment- (S) specific variables Environment specific variables were: Population per acre Percentage of Swiss nationals per acre Daytime noise level Elevated south-west exposure (Dummy) Distance to train station less than 100m (Dummy) City circle

Assessing Quality of Housing Urban & Spatial Economics10 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2009), see p. 15 for complete list of variables in the price model and p. 16 for complete regression output Hedonic price model (Economic) Quality of housing in circle k Adj. R 2 : Regression yields proxies for economic values of environment-specific variables (S) Economic quality of housing is attributed to each city circle

Prices of smaller apartments Urban & Spatial Economics11 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2008) Rather good fit with quality of living Relative prices are practically identical for both types of apartments

Prices of larger apartments Urban & Spatial Economics12 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2008) Picture changes, especially for 5-room case Higher relative prices in some lower housing quality areas

Other determinants of Prices Urban & Spatial Economics13 Statistik Stadt Zürich (2008) Rent-market is by no means perfect e.g. strong influence by laws protecting tennants

Some examples in circles 4+5 around Langstrasse Urban & Spatial Economics14 Source: Kreis 4 einst und heute - Zeitgeschichte in Bildern! Neujahrsblatt Industriequartier auf das Jahr...; 2007

Urban & Spatial Economics15

Urban & Spatial Economics16

Literature Urban & Spatial Economics17 Gebhardt, H.; Glaser, R. ; Radtke, U. & Reuber, P. (2007): Geographie; Physische Geographie und Humangeographie. Elsevier GmbH. München. Heye, C., & Leuthold, H. (2006): Sozialräumlicher Wandel in der Agglomeration Zürich, disp. The Planning Review, p Leitungsgruppe des NFP 54 (2011): Nachhaltige Siedlungs- und Infrastrukturentwicklung – Von der Verwaltung zur aktiven Entwicklung, Programmsynthese des Nationalen Forschungsprogramms 54. Bern. Rérat, P. & Lees, L (2010): Spatial capital, gentrification and mobility: evidence from Swiss core cities. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, p.126 – 142. Statistik Stadt Zürich. (2008): Mietpreise Stadt Zürich - Ergebnisse der Mietpreisstrukturerhebung Zürich: Stadt Zürich - Präsidialdepartement - Statistik Stadt Zürich. Statistik Stadt Zürich. (2009): Was Wohnqualität in Zürich Kostet - Das hedonische Mietpreismodell erlaubt differenzierte Aussagen. Zürich: Stadt Zürich - Präsidialdepartement - Statistik Stadt Zürich.