Präsentation zum Thema: "Wir bitten Sie, die nachfolgenden Hinweise zu jeder Folie zu lesen. Dr"— Präsentation transkript:
1Wir bitten Sie, die nachfolgenden Hinweise zu jeder Folie zu lesen. Dr Wir bitten Sie, die nachfolgenden Hinweise zu jeder Folie zu lesen. Dr. Steven C. Amstrup, leitender Wissenschaftler und Kathryn A. Foat, Direktorin der Verwaltung der PBI, haben erklärende Informationen hinzugefügt, einschließlich allgemeiner naturgeschichtlicher Informationen, die die Geschichte die Eisbären mit einer sich erwärmenden Welt verbinden.
3Polar bears are a highly visible species in the Arctic Polar bears are a highly visible species in the Arctic. They’re visible in the sense of public awareness and interest—and visible in the sense that we can see, monitor, and measure them to varying degrees. We can thereby learn more about them and how they relate to their environment. Because they rely on the sea ice for critical aspects of their life histories, they are excellent sentinels of arctic climate warming.Der Eisbär ist der Symbol der Arktis. Sein lateinischer Name ist “Ursus maritimus”, was soviel bedeutet wie Meer-Bär.
4Eisbären leben in den närdilichen Polarkreisen, in den U. S. A Eisbären leben in den närdilichen Polarkreisen, in den U.S.A. (Alaska), Kanada, Russland, Grönland, und Norwegen. Circa 66% aller Eisbären leben in KanadaIn our modern world, we expect to know basic information, like how many polar bears are there and exactly where do they live. The harsh conditions of the Arctic hinder this basic research. We only know a little about many of the bear 19 subpopulations, especially in Russia.
5Eisbären haben sich perfekt an das Leben in der Arktis angepasst Eisbären haben sich perfekt an das Leben in der Arktis angepasst. Sie können sogar in lebensfeindlichen Regionen überleben, in denen unter -50C herrscht.For more information:Why use the polar bear as a case study for a warming world?The Arctic is undergoing more rapid change than anywhere elsePolar bears are a universal symbol of the ArcticAs an apex predator, polar bears integrate changes that take place at lower levels in the food chainPolar bears are closely linked to the sea ice. Hence, they are a bellwether of the health of the arctic ecosystem.Sea ice changes portend arctic-wide and global climate changes.
6Eisbären finden sich auf dem offenen Eis am wohlsten. For most polar bears, all of life’s activities occur out on the sea ice – hunting, mating, and in some subpopulations bearing and raising young. (See next slide.) There are some subpopulations that are stranded on land during the summer season. We’ll talk more about this later. It’s important to understand that polar bears can’t exist without sea ice.Knowing what will happen with the ice is critical for understanding the polar bear’s chances for survival.Eisbären finden sich auf dem offenen Eis am wohlsten.
7Sie brauchen das Eis um… Andere Eisbären zu treffenJungtiere groß zu ziehenRobben zu jagenAuf den Nachwuchs aufzupassen
8Eisbären ernähren sich ausschließlich von Robben, die sie auf dem offenen Eis jagen. In the Arctic, mammals associated with the sea ice include bearded and ringed seals and cetaceans such as bowhead and beluga whales. Understanding the changes in seal populations from climate warming in the Arctic is an area of new and ongoing research. Changes in the arctic ecosystem are impacting a number of food chains.Photo credit: Steven C. Amstrup
9Die meisten Eisbären leben in Regionen in mit vielen Robben. Wissenschaftler haben 19 Subkulturen der Eisbären rund um den nördlichen Polarkreis gefunden. Die Eisbären sind nicht gleichmäßig verteilt.Die meisten Eisbären leben in Regionen in mit vielen Robben.Map from IUCN’s Polar Bear Specialist Group at Visit their website for an interactive version summarizing the current status of each population.For additional information, and a narrative on each subpopulation, visit this section of the PBSG website:
10This is a subject area of constant new information and misinformation This is a subject area of constant new information and misinformation. Every year there are new scientific and non-scientific papers and articles presented suggesting that polar bears will find a way to survive that involves eating something other than seals. The basis of these is to create the hope that polar bears will adapt by finding something else to eat as the sea ice changes and potentially decreases their access to prey. For each new scenario, whether goose eggs, vegetation, other marine mammals, these papers miss the point that the polar bear has evolved to feed on seals. Ultimately without the sea ice as platform for hunting seals, the polar bear will not be able to meet its nutritional needs.Es gibt noch keine Beweise dafür, dass Eisbären sich auch von Robben in südlicheren Gegenden ernähren.
11Sea ice is a mosaic of different ice thickness, age, floe size, and concentration. The temperature, currents, and wind move the ice, causing cracks to form and develop into leads, which may freeze again or create pressure ridges. Some ice survives the summer melt to become thick and stable platforms of multiyear ice. Depending on these characteristics, some ice has greater biological potential than other ice. Hence, polar bears are distributed in the Arctic relative to the nature of the sea ice.Das Eis ist ständig in Bewegung, es bricht und wächst zusammen, je nachdem wie der Wind weht, sich Temperaturen verändern, oder Meeresströme fließen. Diese Umgebung bietet viele Möglichkeiten zur Robbenjagt, allerdings auch viele Gefahren, sogar für einen Eisbären
12Satellite radio-tracking of female polar bears reveals that they travel great annual distances (between 1,500 and 3,200 miles!). This graphic shows the movement of one such bear over a three-year observation period. New research that pairs tracking data with sea ice information will be a powerful tool for understanding the future dynamics of polar bear populations.Data and graphic provided by USGS.Wilde Eisbären legen die größten Strecken, aller nicht-land-Säugetiere, zurück. Wissenschaftler haben diese Tiere mit Sendern ausgestattet, sodass die Wanderungen besser nachvollziehbar und kontrollierbar werden.
13warum sind sie dann in Gefahr? Wenn Eisbären sich so gut an ihre Umgebung angepasst haben,warum sind sie dann in Gefahr?
14Ganz einfach: ihr Zuhause schmilzt weg. In 2007, a group of scientists led by Dr. Steven Amstrup warned that polar bears would become extinct if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise as projected. Consequently, polar bears were listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act in Dr. Amstrup recently updated (2010) the situation for polar bears today: “Research models that assumed business-as-usual emissions projected a dire future for polar bears, with two-thirds of the current world population disappearing by mid-century and possible worldwide extinction by the end of the 21st century. Although it seems reasonable to expect that reducing emissions would benefit polar bears and their habitat, no studies had been done to test whether this was true.” But please don’t stop the story here – see hope further in this slide show.Ganz einfach: ihr Zuhause schmilzt weg.
15To fully understand the physics of climate change and the conservation behaviors needed to reduce greenhouse gases, please visit the PBI website for more information and videos on this topic. We’ve also prepared a PowerPoint that focuses on this topic in more detail.Here are some basics:The laws of physics require that rising greenhouse gas (GHG) levels MUST result in rising temperatures. Although there are a lot of uncertainties in climate modeling and predictions, as well as unsettled science regarding exactly WHEN particular temperature thresholds might be exceeded, there is no uncertainty, however, that Earth MUST continue to warm as long as we add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Read more: or atAlthough there are a lot of uncertainties in climate modeling and predictions, as well as unsettled science regarding exactly WHEN particular temperature thresholds might be exceeded, there is no uncertainty, however, that Earth MUST continue to warm as long as we add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Das schmelzen der großen Eisflächen ist die einzige und größte Gefahr für Eisbären. Die warmen Temperaturen werden von Treibhausgasen verursacht.
16Ignatious Rigor, Univ. Washington. This video depicts arctic sea ice losses over the past 30 years.Directions for inserting movie: In order to show the film, you must have the video installed either on the thumb drive you are using to access the PowerPoint or on your computer. The movie is not associated with the PowerPoint; it maps to the location. Sorry for the extra step. Download this movie titled, AgeOfSeaIce_7909to0909.mpg from this URL: https://public.me.com/kathrynfoatTake a close look at changes in the extent of arctic sea ice between 1978 to The video moves fast, but pay attention to the dates in the upper right corner. Summer months show the largest contraction, but as time goes on, most subsequent winters don’t expand to the coverage of the previous year. Red dots represent the buoys that measure the ice. The data was compiled by Dr. Ignatious G. Rigor at the University of Washington, Seattle Applied Physics Lab. To read more about this research, which is fascinating and worth the side trip, please go to:Ignatious Rigor, Univ. Washington.
17Was passiert mit den Eisbären, wenn das Eis schmlizt? Sie finden keine Beute mehrSchlechte Überlebens-chancen für JungtiereErtrinken, weil sie nicht mehr an Land kommenWeniger Raum zum NestbauKannibalismusThis information can be hard to take. But it is important that those who speak about the status of polar bears wrestle their way through what it really looks like for a population that is experiencing increased mortality. Here is how Dr. Amstrup explains seeing images depicting these behaviors or results:“It is important to emphasize, that when biologists' calculations indicate, as they have in the Western Hudson Bay subpopulation, that survival rate of young is reduced, what that means is that mortality is increased. And a principal mechanism of increased mortality in polar bears is starvation. With ever longer ice-free periods, we will see ever increasing rates of starvation. I think that most in the media and public, and policy makers, don't really get that when scientists speak of lowered survival in scientific papers, what we really are referring to is starvation. The principal mechanism of mortality in apex carnivores is starvation, and we should not be hesitant to point that out.” Another related topic, is interbreeding with grizzly bears. You may be asked this question so, again, here is Dr. Amstrup’s response:“All of us (scientists) have commented extensively over the years that polar bears (with or without crossbreeding) simply cannot undo a quarter million years of evolution in 50 or 60 years. Crossbreeding or not, with uncontrolled warming, we will see polar bears disappear. We may see grizzly bears expand as the climate ameliorates, but that is not the issue about which we are concerned. This hybridization topic, creates a real problem in that it creates another distraction from the focus on the need to reduce warming. When it comes up, we need to turn the conversation around and point out that there is no solution here, and that to the extent there may be hybridization, it probably will be of little consequence to polar bears facing dramatic declines in their habitat base.”
18Warum passiert das Alles? In den letzten millionen Jahren ist der CO2 Gehalt in der Atmosphäre gleich gebliebenSeit der Industrialisierung vor 90 Jahren stiegt der CO2-Wert immer stärker an und erwärmt die Luft so stark, dass immer mehr Eis zu schmelzen beginnt.Many people who wish to deny that humans are affecting the earth’s climate overlook the requirements of the laws of physics. Instead, they point at variations in the weather and uncertainties in climate projections. By pointing out cold spells and heavy snow-storms, and by pointing out the unknowns or uncertainties in the understanding of our climate system, they try to cast doubt about the science. Yet, cold and warm spells are simply examples of natural variation that are going to continue to occur in a warming world. There always have been and will continue to be natural oscillations in the weather and climate. These oscillations create uncertainties in predicting exactly how fast the world may warm and how the climate at any one time and place may be affected. They do not alter the physical principles, however, which assure that earth MUST warm as greenhouse gas concentrations increase. Nor do they alter the fact that unabated warming will create a world very different than the one to which humans have become accustomed and in which humans have flourished.
19Die AuswirkungenNach einer Studie 2009 ist folgendes mit den 19 Subkulturen der Eisbären passiert:8 werden kleiner3 sind stabil geblieben1 nehmen zu7 unzureichende DatenZum Vergleich, in 2005:5 wurden kleiner5 waren stabil2 namen zuStatus report from the 2009 meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group. This group of scientists from the five polar bear nations meets every four years.
20This report by a research team led by Dr. Steven C This report by a research team led by Dr. Steven C. Amstrup was part of the basis for the decision by the U.S. government to list the polar bear as a threatened species.In einem Forschungsbericht 2007 wurde ermittelt, dass 66% aller Eisbären aussterben wenn der CO2 -Ausstoß der Menschheit weiter so ansteigt.
21We heartily disagree – read on and make the case with your audience. Den Nachrichten zu folge sind die Eisbären zum aussterben verdammt und wir können das nicht mehr verhindern.
22Doch die Zukunft ist noch nicht geschrieben. It’s not too late to save polar bears from extinction. Dr. Amsrup explains the reason for this hope: “Our 2007 work (the research conducted that was the basis for listing polar bears as threatened under the Endangered Species Act) showed conclusively that the only way to preserve a sustainable future for polar bears is through very significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. We initiated additional research to answer the question of whether polar bears are unavoidably doomed, as some previously had concluded. The ‘doomed’ conclusion was based, at least in part, on the belief that the arctic sea ice had tipping points that would result in unstoppable loss of summer ice (and ultimately perennial ice) after a certain temperature was reached. If that were true, future greenhouse gas mitigation would confer little conservation benefit to polar bears. In a paper published in Nature in December 2010, we showed there is no tipping point behavior in summer sea ice. We also demonstrated that by reducing future temperature rise, substantially more polar bear habitat would be preserved than if we let temperatures continue to rise unabated, and that such habitat savings translate directly into saving more polar bears.”Although it seems reasonable to conclude that reducing the degree to which the world warms will save sea ice and that sea-ice savings in turn would improve polar bear persistence; there had been no previous studies to show that that was actually the case. The absence of evidence of sea-ice tipping points means that the conservation of polar bears, and other cold dependent species of the northern regions, is dependent entirely on controlling temperature rise. This finding simplifies the call to action with regard to saving polar bears-we need to make every effort possible, as soon as possible to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. Saving polar bears is all about controlling temperature rise!”Doch die Zukunft ist noch nicht geschrieben.
23Gründe zur Hoffnung…PBI has a library of short videos that you could link from YouTube and play here. We suggest this one, Hope for Polar Bears, but please explore by going to this URL:Directions for inserting movie: In order to show the film, you must have the video installed either on the thumb drive you are using to access the PowerPoint or on your computer. The movie is not associated with the PowerPoint; it maps to the location. Sorry for the extra step. Download the movie titled, Hope for Polar Bears, from this URL: https://public.me.com/kathrynfoat.In December 2010, Dr. Amstrup and a team of scientists published research that answered the question of whether it is, in fact, reasonable to expect that reducing emissions would benefit polar bears and their habitat. Click on the image to see the 1 minute description.“Our findings clearly provide a message of hope,” says Amstrup, “but they also underscore the urgent need for reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve the greenhouse gas levels used in our models we must make substantial changes in our emissions patterns within the next decade.”Making the necessary changes will be a challenge, but the rewards will be great. The Arctic is the fastest warming area on earth. Changes there—including sea-ice losses and diminishing polar bear populations—are more obvious, right now, than changes in other regions. Because human-caused warming is global, however, these changes only foreshadow those that will come to the rest of the world. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to save polar bears, therefore, will save countless other species worldwide, and also preserve the climate in which humans have flourished.
24Was können WIR tun?Unfortunately, there has so far been no serious action by any of the leading nations to reduce emissions. “So, sadly, I have to report that the outlook for polar bears and other cold dependent species has only worsened in the time since we released our 2007 reports,’ said Dr. Amstrup. “Our recent paper in Nature has shown that it is not too late to save polar bears. We have shown it is possible to take actions in time to save this species. Our paper, however did not address the political plausibility of taking such action. It is my wish that showing there is hope for polar bears may stimulate the actions necessary to realize that hope.”More video resources from Polar Bears International are available at YouTube. Please go to our website and click the YouTube button to the left or follow this link:
252 Dinge…Am besten ist es wenn Ihr allen von diesem Problem erzählt und möglichst viele darauf aufmerksam macht.Wir müssen herausfinden wo wir viel CO2 freisetzen. Und dann müssen wir uns überlegen wie wir das verhindern können.What actions to take?There is a clear answer to part of that question from Dr. Amstrup’s research: “Our study shows the path we need to follow to preserve much of life as we have known it for the past 10,000 years. That path is a sustainable interaction with Earth. Specifically, we must develop sustainable energy sources that don’t rely on fossil fuels (the primary productivity of the past), which will allow us to continue to interact with Earth in perpetuity. Our study identifies the path. Now it is up to all of us to determine whether we will follow it.”
26Hier sind einige Beispiele : RecyclenLicht ausschaltenWiederverwendbare Einkaufstüten verwendenÖfter mal zu Fuß gehen, oder mit dem Fahrrad fahrenBäume pflanzenEigenes Gemüse anbauenWasser aus Glas- statt Plastikflaschen trinkenJeder noch so kleine Schritt kann den Unterschied machen.Younger person “what you can do slide”
27Und noch ein paar Sachen: Lasst euer Haus neu isolieren, dass spart auch GeldVermeidet Plastik bei eurem EinkaufKauft Akkus statt BatterienBildet FahrgemeinschaftenSchaltet eure Heizung ein paar Stufen nach unten.Behaltet Alles was noch funktioniert und kauft euch nichts Neues, was ihr nicht wirklich braucht.Jede Kleinigkeit macht den Unterschied aus.Older youth and adult “what you can do slide”Website resource for home energy savings: