Risk Habitat Megacity ¿sostenibilidad en riesgo? Dear evaluators, representatives from the Helmholtz association and colleagues, In the next 30 minutes, I will give a broad and comprehensive overview of the Risk Habitat Megacity Research initiative. ¿sostenibilidad en riesgo? A Helmholtz Research Initiative 2007 – 2013

Risk Habitat Megacity Dr. Volker Stelzer Institut für Technikfolgenabschätzung und Systemanalyse am Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe 12.12.2007 Regionalwissenschaftlichers Kolloquium am Institut für Regionalwissenschaft an der Universität Karlsruhe (TH) I will focus on 4 aspects: The Background of the initiative: the ‘evolution’ of the initiative and key partners Challenge for research: megacities as a space of risk and of opportunity Research Initiative: its focus and the concept And – finally about the implementation of the project

Gliederung Beteiligte Projektziele Forschungsdesign Projekthintergrund Beteiligte Projektziele Forschungsdesign Das Integrative Konzept Nachhaltiger Entwicklung Anwendungsfelder Zeitplan Erste Ergebnisse und nächste Schritte I will focus on 4 aspects: The Background of the initiative: the ‘evolution’ of the initiative and key partners Challenge for research: megacities as a space of risk and of opportunity Research Initiative: its focus and the concept And – finally about the implementation of the project

Schaffung einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung Umsetzung der Agenda 21 Realisierung der Milleniumsziele Umsetzung des Kioto-Protokolls Umsetzung der Wüstenkonvention Umsetzung der Biodiversitätskonvention ...

Weltweite Bevölkerungsentwicklung 1950 bis 2030 (in Mrd.) gesamt Stadt Land Quelle: Lehn 2006; Datenquelle: Vereinte Nationen

Bevölkerungswachstum 2000 - 2030 (Mio.) Europa Nord-amerika Latein-amerika Afrika Asien Welt Insge-samt - 31 85 190 650 1197 2113 In Städten 25 98 205 448 1274 2068 Summe Entwicklungsländer: 1927 Quelle: Lehn 2006; Datenquelle: Vereinte Nationen

Megastädte Größe Geschwindigkeit Verbindungen Mobilität Komplexität We conceive MC as places of extreme concentration of functions and values and as ‘hot spot’ of political, social, economic and ecological change Incorporating the classical population- and function-based definitions, we see the characteristic elements as: The scale and size (in terms of population, resources requirement…) velocity of change and rapid transformation (for example of urban land use) their connectivity (e.g. with their hinterland in terms of resources consumption or to the global economic network) mobility (of people within a megacity, but also increasingly as destination of international migration) A growing complexity (through simultaneous processes of concentration, expansion and differentiation) We argue that these characteristic features present pressing challenges for urban sustainability (from local to global scales). They likewise pose fresh challenges for research that so far have rarely explicitly, let alone systematically, been addressed. Komplexität

Megacities als entscheidender Handlungs-raum für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung Risiken Natürliche Gefahren (Erdbeben, Vulkanausbrüche…) Natürliche Gefahren, die durch menschliche Handlungen vergrößert werden (Siedlung in potenziellen Hangrutschungsgebieten …) Menschen gemachte Risiken (Anthropogene Luftverschmutzung, soziale Exclusion …) Chancen Ökonomische Dynamik und Produktivität Knotenpunkt im globalen Netzwerk Konzentration von Human- und sozialen Ressourcen Umweltverträgliche und kosteneffektive Infrastruktur

Bevölkerungsentwicklung in Lateinamerika und der Karibik 1950 – 2000 (Mrd.) gesamt Stadt Land Quelle: Lehn 2006; Datenquelle: Vereinte Nationen

Lateinamerikanische Megastädte als Untersuchungsraum Höchste Verstädterungsrate der Entwicklungs-länder Demographischer Umkehrpunkt, nach einem Jahrhundert rascher Urbanisation Neue Dimension der Stadtentwicklung und -trans-formation Neue Herausforderungen für „urban governance“

Santiago de Chile als „Ankerstadt“ Repräsentative Problemlagen Fortgeschrittener Urbanisierungsgrad Gute Einbindung in regionale Netzwerke Relativ gute Datenlage Gute Forschungsinfrastruktur und -expertise Bestehende Forschungskontakte Funktionen von Santiago Konzeptentwicklung Erstes Beispiel Partner für Ausweitung

Partner der Forschungsinitiative Partner der Helmholtz Gemeinschaft Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK) GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Infektionsforschung (HZI) Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung (UFZ) The Risk Habitat Megacity research initiative reflects the joint work of about forty natural and social scientists and engineers from five research centres of the German Helmholtz Association – the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK), the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, and four partner organizations in Latin America – Universidad de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL) in the United Nations.

Partner der Forschungsinitiative Partner in Latin America Universidad de Chile Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaiso United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL) Universidad Alberto Hutardo (UAH) Ingeneria Alemana S.A. (IASA) Intendencia de la Region Metropolitana Ministerien u.a. The Risk Habitat Megacity research initiative reflects the joint work of about forty natural and social scientists and engineers from five research centres of the German Helmholtz Association – the German Aerospace Centre (DLR), the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (FZK), the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research (HZI), the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), and the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, and four partner organizations in Latin America – Universidad de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC/CEPAL) in the United Nations.

Netzwerke Partnerorganisationen in Lateinamerika Gobierno Regional Area Metropolitana (GORE), Comisión, Nacional del Medio Ambiente (CONAMA), Corporación para el Desarrollo de Santiago (CORDESAM), Ministerio de Vivienda y Urbanismo (MINVU), ONG Sur, Ciudad Viva, Cámara de Comercio de Chile, Chilean Development Agency (CORFO), Forum of Ministries of Housing and Urban Development (MINURVI), Red Latinoamericana y del Caribe de Instituciones de Vivienda, Gestión y Medio Ambiente Urbano, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales (FLACSO)… Internationale Partner / Initiativen Alliance for Global Sustainability (ETH Zürich, MIT, Chalmers), UNU Institute on Environment and Human Security UNU-EHS, International Human Dimensions Programme IHDP, Megacity Task Force of the International Geographic Union IGU… Nationale Partner / Initiativen in Deutschland Helmholtz Integrated Earth Observation System (IEOS), National Committee for Global Change Research NKGCF, BMBF “Research on Sustainable Development in Megacities of tomorrow”, DFG core theme “ Informal Dynamics of Global Change” The research partners in Santiago de Chile facilitated or arranged contact between the Helmholtz consortium and several relevant actors and stakeholders in Chile and elsewhere in Latin America. This involves not only the scientific community, but likewise stakeholders, in particular policy making bodies and local authorites as well as the private sector and non-government. Within the international science community, we engaged in consultations with a number of key organisations. In Germany, Risk Habitat Megacity is one of the three current and complementary initiatives…. Helmholtz consortium has further established contacts in the business community. This led to contributions by the research initiative at events held by Siemens (Forum Megatrend Urbanization in November 2006), the BMW Foundation Herbert Quandt (November 2006) and the Herrhausen Society of the Deutsche Bank (Urban Age Conferences in May and November 2006).

Ziele der Forschungsinitiative Orientierungswissen für nachhaltige Entwicklung von Megacities liefern Kriterien Zielwerte Risiko- und Problemanalysen Szenarien Vorschläge für Handlungsstrategien Beratung Lokale – regionale Ebene Nationale Ebene (abhängig vom Thema) Supranationale Ebene (UN) Dissimination / Capacity-Building Wissenschaftliche Ebene (Universitäten) Gesellschaftliche Ebene (Partizipationsverfahren) Ausweitung auf andere Staaten Lateinamerikas Risk Habitat Megacities faces these research challenges The initiative has the following objectives: It will contribute to the specification of sustainability objectives for the future development of megacities; assess characteristic risks, their driving factors and consequences in megacities; design strategies and instruments for risk management as key tools for sustainable urban development; (mainstreaming risk management into metropolitan governance) develop implementation solutions that take the institutional, political, economic, and social aspects within megacities into account; build a platform for continuous learning and application in order to integrate academic research and professional practice.

The project architecture and its matrix structure illustrates the interlinkages between the concepts and the fields of application and the ‘deliverables’. It shows that the initiative: involves a comprehensive rather than sectoral approach and adopt an integrative perspective embraces a problem perspective, with context specific investigation with the aim of moving governance in megacities from response to action Contains elements that extends knowledge into both academic and professional education, and to local stakeholders The integrative and interdisciplinary character of the initiative allows scientists and policy makers to deepen the understanding of megacities as a system and to develop orientation knowledge and activity-related knowledge.

Cross-cutting concepts Nachhaltigkeit Ziele Risiko Probleme The research approach uses three analytical concepts The sustainable development concept serves to formulate the target dimension of the project The risk concept focuses on the extent of the problems and their severity The governance concept concentrates on th eaction to be undertaken As the presentations later this afternoon will show, these three “cross-cutting concepts” are closely interlinked. Together they make the entire complexity of urban systems and the dynamics of development explicit and allow for their adequate analysis. They also play a crucial role in the integration of research and its findings, and thus for the coherence of the overall initiative Governance Handlung

Integratives Konzept Nachhaltiger Entwicklung Normativ Problem- orientiert Generelle Ziele Regeln Konstitutive Elemente Problem Indikatoren Operationalisierung Kontextualisierung

Das Integrative Konzept nachhaltiger Entwicklung Inter- und intragenerative Gerechtigkeit Global Anthropozentrisch Integrativ Nach: Jürgen Kopfmüller, Volker Brandl, Juliane Jörissen, Michael Paetau, Gerhard Banse, Reinhard Coenen, Armin Grunwald (2001): Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet – Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren. sigma, Berlin.

Das Integrative Konzept Nachhaltiger Entwicklung Nach: Jürgen Kopfmüller, Volker Brandl, Juliane Jörissen, Michael Paetau, Gerhard Banse, Reinhard Coenen, Armin Grunwald (2001): Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet – Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren. sigma, Berlin. S. 172

Das Integrative Konzept Nachhaltiger Entwicklung Nach: Jürgen Kopfmüller, Volker Brandl, Juliane Jörissen, Michael Paetau, Gerhard Banse, Reinhard Coenen, Armin Grunwald (2001): Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet – Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren. sigma, Berlin. S. 172

Instrumentelle Mindestanforderungen Das Integrative Konzept Nachhaltiger Entwicklung Instrumentelle Mindestanforderungen Internalisierung externer sozialer und ökologischer Kosten Angemessene Diskontierung Begrenzung der Verschuldung Faire weltwirtschaftliche Rahmenbedingungen Förderung der internationalen Zusammenarbeit Resonanzfähigkeit der Gesellschaft Reflexivität der Gesellschaft Steuerungsfähigkeit Selbstorganisation Machtausgleich Nach: Jürgen Kopfmüller, Volker Brandl, Juliane Jörissen, Michael Paetau, Gerhard Banse, Reinhard Coenen, Armin Grunwald (2001): Nachhaltige Entwicklung integrativ betrachtet – Konstitutive Elemente, Regeln, Indikatoren. sigma, Berlin. S. 272

Anwendungsfelder Socio-spatial differentiation Energy system Land use management Socio-spatial differentiation Energy system Transportation Air quality and health Water resources and services Waste management The research applies the three concepts to several typical megacity-issues: We selected them for three reasons: They illustrate the outstanding role of megacities: as consumers of resources (such as land, energy and water); as major producers of waste, pollution and associated health effects; and as centres of social transformation. We’ve discussed these fields of applications with our Partner institutions and local stakeholders. They have have confirmed their relevance, the specific ‘problem’ focus and the need to deal with them scientifically. The specific research capacities and competences within the consortium provide an excellent basis for research on these particular topics.

Anwendungsfeld „Land use management“

Anwendungsfeld „Socio-spatial differentiation“

Anwendungsfeld „Energy system“

Anwendungsfeld „Transportation“

Anwendungsfeld „Air quality and health“

Anwendungsfeld „Water resources and services“

Anwendungsfeld „Waste management“

Cross-Cutting Concepts Integration von Disziplinen Methoden Wissenschaft und Praxis Kulturen Institutionen durch Cross-Cutting Concepts Indikatoren Szenarien Datenmanagement Verantwortlichkeiten Steuerungsteams To make the interdisciplinary approach successful, we apply several tools for integration: Conceptual and cognitive integration: linkage between cross-cutting concept and fields of application (as explained in the previous slide) Methodological integration: the use of jointly elaborated scenarios guarantees that the fields of application adopt same assumptions on societal framework conditions and apply a common time horizon; a second tool is the development of a common database Integration of scientific disciplines and societal actors: we have embraced a wide spectrum of disciplines from the very beginning with researchers, who are experienced in this respect. We have placed care on methods to involve local stakeholders Integration of findings: The conceptual integration between concepts and fields of application will lead to joint results. In particular, we will synthesize findings in our concluding activities Lastly, organizational integration. A key procedure for the promotion of integration between cross-cutting issues and empirical research is the involvement of representatives from cross-cutting topics in each field of application.

Capacity building 1. Training von Nachwuchswissenschaftlern Individuelle Betreuung Jährlicher Nachwuchswissenschaftlerworkshop 2. Wissenstransfer International Research Centre for the Sustainable Urban Development in Metropolitan Areas (ISUD) Masterprogramme ECLAC/CEPAL-Training-Netzwerk in Latin America Postgraduate Programme in Deutschland 1. The interdisciplinary, international and intercultural nature of the research initiative creates unique opportunities and challenges for the capacity building of young researchers. The initiative shows a strong commitment to academic formation and will use the network of researchers and institutions involved for this purpose. On an individual level, the close to 20 PhD candidates will work under the close supervision of a speaker or a key scientist, whose responsibility is to guide the work and link it to the interdisciplinary framework of the initiative. In addition, the PhD candidates will meet annually for a young researchers workshop. 2 The transfer of knowledge into academic and professional practice will be facilitated by existing and envisaged programmes of both the Chilean and German partners. The Universidad de Chile is currently in the process of establishing postgraduate courses on sustainable urban development at the ISUD Centre. The Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile runs several master programmes and professional courses The División de Desarrollo Sostenible y Asentamientos Humanos of ECLAC/CEPAL is committed to training professionals and practitioners via its training network throughout Latin America. The Centre advises the Regional Forum of Ministers of Housing and Urban Development. It runs a training programme on themes such as sustainable environmental urban management, environmental economy and development policy, and shelter and urban land. In all fields of application, involved researchers from Helmholtz will use the results and knowledge from Risk Habitat Megacity for teaching purposes in Germany

Historie der Forschungsinitiative 2003 Evaluation des Forschungsbereichs ‘Erde und Umwelt’ 2004 HGF-Senatsentscheidung 10/05 - 1/07 Entwicklung des Forschungsplans March 2007 Evaluierung des Forschungsplans June 2007 Start der Umsetzung How did we come to the research initiative Risk Habitat Megacity? The Helmholtz association is organized in programmes. The centres do not receive the funds, but the money is given via these programmes. The programmes are evaluated every five years. In the 2003 evaluation of the research field Earth and Environment we presented an abstract with some preliminary ideas on research for megacities, which the evaluators conceived positively. The Helmholtz Senate in 2004, following the evaluation, requested to investigate the prospects of bundling capacities for an integrated MC initiative In a preparatory phase, beginning in Oct 2005 up to now, we’ve brought together the research groups in Germany and in Latin America, discussed the content and the structure of such a proposal and developed a research plan This research plan is on your table and will be evaluated today and tomorrow. If today’s and tomorrow’s evaluation is positive, we intend to start the programme in June this year, with a three-year programme phase in the beginning.

Timeframe Phase 1 (2007 – 2010) Pilotstudie Phase 2 (2010 – 2013) Expansion The Implementation design consists of two interlinking phases. In the course of an initial three-year phase (2007–2010), we will test the applicability of the integrative concept for the pilot case Santiago de Chile and develop recommendations and implementation solutions In a second phase (2010 – 2013), we plan to transfer the initiative to other Latina American Megacities. While we will apply the overall framework to these cases, the focus of empirical investigation and the selected fields of application may well differ from case to case. To integrate the two phases, we will examine the analytical framework of Risk Habitat Megacity with respect to its transferability to other Latin American megacities. Resources: Helmholtz: 20-25 Scientists President’s fund: (12 PhD/PostDoc) and 10 PhD at Partner Universities Partner in Latin America: scientific time and infrastructure Other funds: example Cooperation agreement of DAAD and CONYCIT

Aktivitäten der Phase 1 (2007 – 2010) Cross-cutting concepts 2. Statusanalysen Konzept, Indikator- entwicklung 3. Erste Begutachtung, Szenarien Modelle 4. Maßnahmen, Politik- empfehlungen 5. Endbegutachtung, Schlussfolgerungen Anwen-dungs- felder The work plan for implementation in phase 1 provides a general framework and orientation for the structure and implementation of the research topics and their work packages. It outlines a set of consecutive activities (from concept refinement to final evaluation). These are carried out in all field of application. Each field of application takes into account the the perspective of the individual cross-cutting concepts. The concepts can thus be seen as the lens through which the fields of application are analysed Towards the end of phase 1, we will integrate the results and derive some of the common outputs: consistet sustainability strategy and recommendations for improved integration of risk mitigation and risk management in urban governance in Santiago de Chile 6. Integration der Ergeb- nisse 7. Ausweitungsstrategie

Erste Ergebnisse Nächste Schritte Die Arbeitsgruppen haben sich konsolidiert Es ist ein erster Entwurf einer Indikatorenliste entstanden Ein erstes Konzeptpapier zu Szenarien liegt vor Die Doktorandensuche ist abgeschlossen oder in die Wege geleitet Nächste Schritte Abschluss der Doktorandensuche Vervollständigung und Konsolidierung der Indikatorenliste Verständigung über Szenarien Abschluss der ersten Workpackages Erster Workshop im Juni in Santiago At the end, let me summarize the potential benefits that in our view provide good justification for the initiative First of all, research for megacities matters, because it promises solutions to one of the grand challenges…. Second…….

Risk Habitat Megacity ¿sostenibilidad en riesgo? Ladies and Gentlemen, at this point, I want to end my presentation. Before discussing your questions (of which I assume there are plenty), I am very pleased that Francisco Martinez from the Universidad de Chile is with us today. He will add the perspective of our partners in Latin America on two aspects: the sharing of responsibilities between the Chilean and German partners and the motivation of the Chilean partners and their expectations from the cooperation. ¿sostenibilidad en riesgo? A Helmholtz Research Initiative 2007 – 2013