Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Analysis with Remi Policy Insight in Nordrhein Westfalen – Including Sensitivity Experiments Rüdiger Budde RWI-Essen

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Agenda Introductory remarks Specifia of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" modell Selecting an industrial strategy Quantifying the potential effects Conclusions

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Northrhine - Westphalia Ruhr area Federal Republic of Germany Neighbouring countries Specifis of the "Nordrhein Westfalen" Model Oberhausen

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde List of Projects with the REMI model “Effects of the Metrorapid Railway in Nordrhein-Westfalen” 3 Studies on the impact on new industrial sites on the local economy and its neighbourhood

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde City of Oberhausen (current situation) inhabitants Lies in the heart of the Ruhr-area In % of the employees were occupied in the steel industry In % of the jobs in the steel industry were vanished Due to industrial changes huge brown fields emerged First successful settlements while restructuring the service sector High unemployment rate (11%) Objective 2 area up to 2006 (This status might be prolonged.)

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde The Regional Economic Strategy To develop the new industrial site Maximize the potential employment that can be settled on the available brown field. Prevent harmful competition between old industries and new settlers.

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Alternative facilities of operating a commercial site stores specialized in retail trade industrial park with a focus on traditional services industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture jobs share of the totaljobs share of the totaljobs share of the totaljobs share of the total sum of all jobs retail stores51025%2105% research and development 90010%97010% services for real estate property 90010%4855% computing services %97010% logistic60030%42010% healthcare225025%291030% other services90045%252060%225025%242525% manufacture105025% medical technology %

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde The results refer to the average of the first four years of production after achieving the aimed degree of efficiency Year of reference is 2008

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Sensitivity analysis Scenario 1 The model is used with all standard implications. Furthermore it is implied that there will be no regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation Scenario 2 The model is used with all standard implications. The investment finds itself in the position of regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as a whole Ratio of Occupation

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in the Ruhr-area (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade Industrial park with a focus on traditional services Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture)

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in the remaining part of NRW (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade Industrial park with a focus on traditional services Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Expected effects in whole State (in absolute figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade Industrial park with a focus on traditional services Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Expected occupational effects in whole Northrhine-Westphalia (in relative figures) Scenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3 Stores specialized in retail trade Industrial park with a focus on traditional services Industrial park with a focus on services for enterprises Industrial park with a focus on health-care including manufacture)

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde On the basis of the research results The elaborated concept The Industrial park with a focus on health- care including manufacture In order to attract potential customers as well as potential investors a theme park on healthcare is implemented within the industrial park Future Park O.Vision

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Future Park O.Vision

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Evaluation of “O.Vision” themepark (public funding where possible) industrial park (private funding only) phase of construction buildings Infrastucture Exhibitions buildings and the infrastucture used method I-O tables, (due to international tendering procedures, there was no way to regionalize the figures) phase of operating operating Themepark operating all settled enterprises used methodRemi –Standard Model

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde dimension theme- park (1) industrial park (2) relation (2) /( 1) direct potential of occupation working years indirect potential of occupation working Years contribution to the GDP Mill. € Expected developement while building the themepark and the industrial park

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Occupational effects of the themepark (sensitive analysis) Direct employees in the Themepark 175 Scenario 1 No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Direct and indirect jobs Ruhr-area 290 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 39 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 329 Ratio of Occupation: 1,8 Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area 205 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia -34 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 171 Ratio of Occupation: 0,98 Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area 219 Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia 18 Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole 237 Ratio of Occupation: 1,35

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Occupational effects of the industrial park (sensitive analysis) Direct employees in the inustrial park Scenario 1 No regional or industry reaction in competition due to undertaking the investment. Direct and indirect jobs Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole Ratio of Occupation: 1,74 Scenario 2 Strong regional or industry competition. Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole Ratio of Occupation: 0,62 Scenario 3 Input-Output Analysis. the Ruhr-area Rest of Northrhine-Westphalia Northrhine-Westphalia as the whole Ratio of Occupation: 1.50

Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Rüdiger Budde Conclusions Distinct positive impact on employment in the Ruhr area Success of the strategy as a whole, highly depends on situation investment finds itself in market conditions –Inter-regional competition –Inter-industrial competition