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Veröffentlicht von:Adrian Stein Geändert vor über 9 Jahren
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 1 J Kluve Successes and Failures of Labor Market Policy in Europe Jochen Kluve (RWI Essen, Germany) Colombia Employment and Development Conference Bogotá, November 14, 2008
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 2 J Kluve Introduction Majority of countries worldwide has implemented certain labor market policies: unemployment benefits, training for the unemployed, etc While labor markets are heterogeneous by country, these policies are similar, and their general objective is the same: increase employment, reduce unemployment Important for countries to learn from each other’s experience Europe: many different countries within relatively small space, many experiences with different labor policies
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 3 J Kluve Today‘s presentation European labor markets: Unemployment and policy spending Passive and Active Labor Market Policy Knowledge on ALMP effectiveness Types of countries Systematizing the evidence: Meta-analysis Failures and successes
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 4 J Kluve
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 5 J Kluve Unemployment in Europe Source: Eurostat
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 6 J Kluve Youth unemployment in Europe Source: Eurostat
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 7 J Kluve Long-term unemployment in Europe Source: Eurostat
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 8 J Kluve European labor markets: overview Unemployment in 2005: EU-15:8.0%14 Mio., of which 4.7 Mio. LTU EU-27:8.9%19.3 Mio., of which 7.9 Mio. LTU Spending (2003): EU-15:65 Bio. Euros on active labor market policy =.75% of GDP 25 Bio. Euros on training programs 126 Bio. Euros on passive labor market policy (Eurostat)
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 9 J Kluve “Passive” labor market policy “Out-of-work income maintenance and support”, i.e. unemployment benefits and unemployment assistance Early retirement schemes Administration of the Public Employment Services (PES) ”Administering unemployment”
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 10 J Kluve Types of Active Labor Market Programs 1.(Labor market ) training: human capital accumulation 2.Private sector incentive programs: employer and worker behavior 3.Direct employment in public sector: public job creation 4.Services and Sanctions: job search efficiency 5.Youth programs 6.Measures for the disabled
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 11 J Kluve EU spending by program type Source: Eurostat
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 12 J Kluve Knowledge on ALMP effectiveness For a particular country: Labor market policy Types of Active Labor Market Programs Design of the unemployment insurance system (passive support) Interaction of the active and passive systems (sanctions, “rights and duties”) Evaluation practice Data collection Academic and government-sponsored research Policy interest in learning about program effectiveness [Countries are heterogeneous systematize information]
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 13 J Kluve Northern Europe Western Europe Southern Europe Eastern Europe
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 14 J Kluve “Northern Europe” Labor market policy Comprehensive use of Active Labor Market Programs (Sweden: since the 1970s) Generous unemployment insurance system (Denmark: 90% replacement rate) Program participation ultimately compulsory for the LTU Evaluation practice Comprehensive data collection (administrative) Multitude of academic evaluation studies Changes in policy? To some extent
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 15 J Kluve “Western Europe” Labor market policy Less comprehensive use of Active Labor Market Programs, but still substantial spending Fairly generous unemployment insurance system Many countries (e.g. Germany, Netherlands, UK) have introduced sanction elements over the last decade Evaluation practice Less established, mostly triggered by EU, in some countries rapidly evolving (Germany) Increasing number of academic evaluation studies Changes in policy? Unclear
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 16 J Kluve “Southern Europe” Labor market policy Little use of Active Labor Market Programs, often regionally focused Less generous unemployment insurance system Evaluation practice Program evaluation rather uncommon Some academic evaluation studies exist Little is known on ALMP effectiveness
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 17 J Kluve “Eastern Europe” Labor market policy After breakdown of Communist regimes, systems of active and passive support built from scratch, often copying Western systems Little use of Active Labor Market Programs in most countries, some exceptions are Romania and Poland (in the 1990s) Unemployment insurance system offers basic support Evaluation practice Program evaluation rather uncommon Some academic evaluation studies exist Little is known on ALMP effectiveness
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 18 J Kluve Spending on ALMP in Europe (%GDP)
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 19 J Kluve How to systematize the evidence Meta-Analysis: Collect evaluations of Active Labor Market Programs from all over Europe (following certain requirements) 137 studies For each study: Does the evaluation find a positive, negative, or zero effect of the program (on employment)? [75 +, 33 Ø, 29 –] Then analyze if there is a systematic pattern by program type: 1.Training(70) 2.Private sector incentive programs(23) 3.Public sector job creation(26) 4.Services and Sanctions(21) 5.Youth programs (35)
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 20 J Kluve Other factors that may influence effectiveness For each country: Labor market institutions Gross replacement rate Regulation on dismissal protection Regulation on fixed-term contracts Regulation on temporary work (OECD indexes) Economic context Unemployment rate ALMP expenditure as % of GDP GDP growth Study design (method, sample size)
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 21 J Kluve Results: ALMP effectiveness in Europe Picture emerging from analysis surprisingly clear-cut: Little systematic relation between program effectiveness and contextual factors Exception: restrictive dismissal regulations Instead: the program type matters
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 22 J Kluve Failures? Direct job creation in the public sector very rarely has a positive effect on participants’ employment probability. Quite the opposite: effects are frequently negative. Training programs have mixed effects, but generally tend towards positive impacts (see “successes” next slide), though maybe not as clearly / strongly as one might have hoped for. Young people seem to be particularly hard to assist. Indeed, most youth programs fail. Perhaps ALMP is not the right type of policy for this group Preventive measures.
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Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 23 J Kluve Successes? Training programs are modestly effective on average. There is some indication that impacts materialize in the longer run (human capital accumulation). Private sector incentive schemes such as wage subsidies and start-up grants generally show positive effects. Caveat: Not much is known about substitution or displacement effects and deadweight loss. “Services and Sanctions” seem particularly successful: Apparently many unemployed can be helped with basic job search assistance measures. Also, sanction elements mobilize the unemployed. These measures are also likely cost-effective.
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