1 FOOD AND FUEL Global Perspectives in Food and Agriculture Vienna, 15 March 2007 Alexander Müller Assistant Director-General Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Overview

2 1.Ein kurzer Rückblick Die Errungenschaften der modernen Landwirtschaft waren immens Rückblick auf das Erreichte Quelle: FAOSTAT

3... bei einem drastischen Verfall der Weltmarktpreise ,000 1,200 1, US/t (konstante Wechselkurse von 1990) Index, 1990=100 Palmöl ($/ton) Sojabohnen ($/ton) Mais ($/ton) Reis ($/ton) Weizen ($/ton) Landwirtschaft (Index) Nahrung (Index) Quelle: Weltbank, Pink Sheets 1.Ein kurzer Rückblick Rückblick auf das Erreichte

4 World population: 1750 – Total population (billions) Annual increments (billions) Assumptions Further growth, but at drastically declining rates Source: UN, 2003

5 Population growth is concentrated in developing countries Assumptions

6 Urban and Rural Population – Source: UN, World Population Assessment 2002 Assumptions

World Industrial EU-15 Ex-USSR E. Europe Developing s.S. Africa L-America NENA South Asia East Asia Percent p.a *1998* GDP growth – per capita - by region Source: World Bank, GEP The main determinants Assumptions

8 Distribution of income: today and in 2030 US$ 986 per person US$ 13,416 per person US$ 33,361 per person US$ 3,408 per person Increase by more than 200% Assumptions Increase by more than 300%

9 Improvements in sight, but hardly enough to meet the target of the WFS /711999/ Unterernährte in Millionen OstasienSüdasiens.S-Afrika Latein Amerika Naher Osten-Nordafrika EntwicklungsländerWFS-Ziel Quelle: FAO 2003 MDG 1990/92 Food and nutrition

10 Success and failure in fighting hunger Source: FAO, SOFI, 2002 Food and nutrition

11 Developing countries will remain big grain importers Die Exportmärkte

12 Der Nahe Osten und Nordafrika werden auch künftig die größten Exportchancen bieten Die Exportmärkte

13 Die Fleischimporte der EL werden stark ansteigen … aber auch die Konkurrenz aus Lateinamerika Die Exportmärkte

14 Land in use versus suitable area for crop production Latin America and Caribbean sub-Saharan Africa East AsiaSouth AsiaNear East/North Africa Industrialized countries Transition Economies million ha Suitable for rainfed crop production Arable land use, 1997/99 The resource base

15 Irrigation water withdrawal as a share of renewable water resources (%) sub-Saharan Africa Latin America Near East/North Africa South Asia East Asia All developing countries Todayin What challenges for the resource base? The resource base

16 9 Exajoule/a [10 18 Joule]/aMillionen ha Energiequelle: Potenzial und VerbrauchJahrWeltOECDnicht-OECDWelt Alle Quellen (TPES) (62.3%) 95 (37.7%) (49.8%) 232 (50.2%) (41.2%) 406 (58.8%) Biomasse Aktueller Verbrauch Theoretisches Potenzial>>2000Globale Photosynthese: ~ 4000 EJ Technisches Potenzial Ökonomisches Potenzial Biotreibstoffe Ethanol 7 (aktuell) Biodiesel 7 (aktuell) Potenzial Verbrauch (8.4) (4.0) (4.4) 13 Ressourcen: Millionen ha Agricultural land 8 Genutzte Ackerflächen /5 Geeignete Ackerflächen (4730) Ackerflächen für Biotreibstoffe =1% of land (57) =2% (3.4%) land 1.) Potential based on Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, ) Based on IEA: Key energy statistics, 2006 (TPES), EIA (US) projections for 2030 are 684 EJ, 721 Q (BTU 1 British thermal unit (Btu) = 1, joules (J)) 3.) Derived from Earth Policy Institute 4.) Assuming an average yield per hectare for ethanol of 4200 l (3000 l US maize, 5500 l Brazil cane, 6900 l France sugar beet) and of 3800 l/ha for biodiesel (average). Most recent yields are about 10% higher for cane and 20% higher for maize. 5.) 850 million ha would be required to meet 2002 road transportation fuels needs (77 EJ) at current yields (l biofuel/ha), technology, and crop composition. 6.) Area for developing and developed countries, not OECD and non OECD 7.) Assuming an energy content of 34 MJ/l for biodiesel and 21.1 MJ/l for ethanol 8.) Bruinsma (ed), World agriculture: towards 2015/2030, An FAO Perspective, 2003, total suitable land for rainfed agriculture 9.) WEC/ IIASA Scenarios: 620 EJ for Scenario C1-C2, 1084 EJ for Scenario A1-A3, Mtoe = 1 EJ 10.) IEA (2003), Biofuels for Transport, table 6.8.; road transportation in 2030 about 120 EJ; total transport: 132 EJ; EIA. 11.) EJ: most biomass fuels are not traded on world markets, estimates of consumption are highly uncertain. 12.) Based on regional estimates from Schrattenholzer and Fischer, IIASA, ) The IEA Energy Outlook 2006 assumes a 4% share in road transportation in 2030 in the reference case, 7% in the alternative scenario Wie groß ist der Markt für Biomasse und Biotreibstoffe? Das Potenzial

17 Bioenergy potential per region: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from WWI 2006)

18 Bioenergy potential per type of biomass: different scenarios, year 2050 Exajoules/yr Source: Juergens and Mueller forthcoming 2007, based on data from Faaij 2006

19 Daten: Nymex and EIA, J. Schmidhuber (2007) Die Bioenergiemärkte - Preiseffekte Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und Mindestpreiseffekt

20 Märkte im Umbruch Zyklische Effekte überlagern von strukturellen Umbruch

21 Parity prices: Petrol–Crude oil – Ethanol Various feedstocks and farming/production systems Petrol, US$/l Crude, US$/bbl Gasoline-Crude US$Cane Brazil, top producers Cane, Brazil, average Cassava, Thaioil, 2 mio l/d Cassava, Thailand, OTC joint venture Maize, US Mixed feedstock Europe Palmoil, MPOB project The competitiveness Competitiveness by feedstock Josef Schmidhuber (2005) BTL: Synfuel/Sunfuel

22 Wettbewerbsfähig als Heiz- und Brennstoffe? Quelle: Eigene Berechnungen auf Basis von EIA, IEA, FAO Daten. J. Schmidhuber (2005) Die Bioenergiemärkte

23 Reicht der Zollschutz für Ethanol? t US t EU-40% t EU Zölle, Preise und Produktionskosten für Ethanol Weizen Mais Zuckerrüben Zuckerrohr Mais EUBRAUSA /l P-kosten CIF US CIF EU FOB BRA MP US Ct/l MP EU t EU t US t EU-40% Die Bioenergiemärkte – Preiseffekte und Risiken

24 US ethanol-some market impacts The impacts on prices and markets

25 Cross links: Impacts on international commodity prices An additional 10 million tonnes of … SugarMaizeSugar and Maize Soybeans and Maize Sugar, Maize and Soybeans Corresponding energy [biofuels] EJ0.087 EJ0.282 EJ0.167 EJ0.349 EJ Commodity… used for biofuels would change international prices (percent) in the long-run by : Sugar Maize Vegetable oils Protein Wheat Rice Beef Poultry simulation results The impacts on prices and markets

26 Bioenergy and Land Use Scenarios (2050) : IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Scenario / Biomass Energy Requirement Bioenerg y % Primary Energy Supply Land for Bioma ss EJ%Mha Sørensen (1999) - bottom up assessment IPCC (2001) - TAR - AIM - A1M TAR - A2 - ASF TAR - B1 - Image TAR - B2 - Message TAR - A1F1 (A1G) - Minicam TAR - A1T - Message IPCC (1996) – Second Assessment Report280 Average Max Min52468

27 Competition for Biomass Source: Juergens (FAO) 2006, adapted from SEI/ESMAP 2005

28 Different Bioenergy Sources with different land requirements Source: Faaij/FAO 2005

29 Land requirements for replacing 10% of petrolium based fuels in the respective region/country (based on average crop area and yield data for and transport fuel consumption in 2004) Source: based on data from WWI 2006 Notes: World 1/2: area relative to land used for cereals, oilseeds and sugar globally (World 1) and in five major biofuel producing regions (World 2).

30 Availability of land for bioenergy plantations in the EU and the US Source: Schlamadinger et al. 2002, p.63

31 Land available for biomass production for energy in the EU Source: EEA Report No 7/2006

32 Environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from forests in the EU Source: EEA Report No 7/2006 Notes: Calculations cover EU-25 Member States without Cyprus, Greece, Luxembourg and Malta

33 Determinants of Bioenergy Production Population growth and economic development Energy prices Food consumption: per capita calorie intake and composition of diet Land use patterns (feasibility of marginal/degraded lands) Efficiency of food production: crop yields, livestock production Forest productivity and sustainable harvest levels. Competing demands for land: nature reserves, endangered/protected ecosystems, recreation, amenity Competing demands for wood and agriculture based bio- materials.