OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS:

Präsentation zum Thema: "OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS:"—  Präsentation transkript:

1 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK? 11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure of a Hydrogen Economy O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns

2 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik ROLE OF HYDROGEN The scarceness of fossil fuels and the resulting price increases have put alternative energies on the agenda. Hydrogen: may play an important role enables one to store energy and put it into end use at the time and place desired production sources: electricity (nuclear energy), renewable energy sources (wind, sun), electricity produced during hours of low consumption by a country’s electric power system A large-scale introduction of hydrogen into an economy requires that the risks associated with it should be at least not higher than those of existing technologies, e.g. LPG 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions

3 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions INFRASTRUCTURE Potential hydrogen applications in Germany:  cars – fuel cell supplying an electric motor or combustion engine  households – fuel cell combined heat and power units (FC-CHP) In order to implement such systems the following infrastructure is needed:

4 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions STUDY OBJECTS Activities in the hydrogen economy and study objects representative of its risk ACTIVITYOBJECT OF ANALYSIS Hydrogen productionGH 2 storage Storage at depotLH 2 storage Hydrogen pipelineGH 2 Hydrogen road tankerLH 2 storage Hydrogen private carLH 2 storage CHP-plantLH 2 storage

5 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL

6 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions EVENT TREE FOR GH2 RELEASE Accident scenarios are described by event trees, based on experience with accidents.

7 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions GH2 STORAGE

8 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions FAULT TREE

9 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions RELIABILITY STUDY Component failure Median in 10 -6 hr -1 Uncertainty factor K95 Test interval in hrs Pneumatic valve17.82.2876 Pressure switch0,938.4443800 Spring-loaded safety valve1.138.443800 Compressor does not stop1.44.0876 Examples of reliability data and test intervals Analytical solution of the fault tree leads to 96 minimal cut sets. Characteristic distribution parameters of the frequency of release: 5 th centile:3.9·10 -8 yr -1 Expected value:1.0·10 -6 yr -1 95 th centile:3.8·10 -6 yr -1

10 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions CONSEQUENCES Death by overpressureDeath by heat radiation Death by tank fragment impact Pressure wave: Heat radiation: Probit equations:

11 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions RISK Individual risk was calculated by combining the expected frequency of tank rupture with the conditional probabilities of death, weighted by corresponding probabilities of the event tree. uncertainties of the results for the consequences were not assessed risk is low and rapidly decreases with distance – no one in direct vicinity of the plant (exclusion area)

12 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik 1. Introduction 2. H 2 Economy 3. Methods 4. Example 5. Risk 6. Conclusions CONCLUSIONS 1.Risk of the hydrogen economy is not higher than that of a competing option, namely LPG. 2.Risk of the storage of gaseous hydrogen under pressure analysed here is low and can be tolerated, if current international risk objectives, i.e. individual risk around 10 -6, are used as a yardstick. 3. There is no obstacle from the perspective of safety to implementing a “hydrogen economy”

13 OTTO-VON-GUERICKE-UNIVERSITÄT MAGDEBURG Fakultät für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik Institut für Apparate- und Umwelttechnik INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL PROGRESS: BENEFIT WITHOUT RISK? 11-13 September 2006, Ljubljana, Slovenia Further details to be found under: www.uni-magdeburg.de/iaut/aswww.uni-magdeburg.de/iaut/as Risk Analysis for the Infrastructure of a Hydrogen Economy O.A. Rosyid, D. Jablonski, U. Hauptmanns