Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in Modell Deutschland CCS in Germany – the future lies in industry Matthias Kopp, WWF Germany

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 2 Context of Blueprint Germany -Objective: Staying below 2°C warming compared to pre- industrial levels -requires GHG-emissions reductions in 2050: -by 60-80% globally -by up to 95% for industrialised countries

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 3 Guidings questions: How does one achieve a 95 % reduction in GHG in a ripe industrial society? -Achievable in a world as we know it? -How far does technology help? -What needs to be fundamentally changed? -Does policy currently set the right guidelines? Authors: Prognos and Öko- Institut

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 4 Outline of study mechanics - scenarios Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 5 Available: sufficient technologies and options will be available to reduce GHG emission by 95% compared to 1990 in a highly industrialized country Achievable: a 95% GHG emission reduction can be achieved –if the windows of opportunity are used (60% of reduction is related to long-living capital stocks) –if the necessary innovation is triggered (60% of reduction depends on innovative technologies and options) Affordable: 0.3% of GDP on average, 0.6% at the maximum All sectors must deliver significant emission reductions, key role of power, industry and transport However, Uncomfortable debates emerge: biofuels, CCS, central and decentral lock-ins The Blueprint Germany project at a glance

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 6 Full de-carbonization & more will be needed: - aggregated emissions need to be focussed on Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009 … aggregated emissions need to be considered and timing of emissions reduction effects will be critically important

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 7 Energy efficiency Emission reduction contributions delivered by components: 1) Energy efficiency, 2) renewables & 3) more Renewables Other measures Addl reductions: addl biofuels/biogas, CCS Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF 2009 EE RES Other

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 8 Emission reduction contributions A fresh look on priorities is needed -the appropriate timing of modernization is key for 60% of reductions if one reflects the long-living capital stocks – same is true for innovation Prognos/Öko-Institut for WWF %

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 9

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 10

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 11 CCS – numbers:

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 12 Role of CCS - strategic resource management Prognos/Öko-Institut für WWF 2009THG gesamt -980 Mio. t CO2e (ab 2005)

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 13 Strategic planning and instrumentation All sectors – remaining energy near complete – CCS for remainder, process related industrial emissions Early uptake of CCS in biomass-conversion for net-sink capacities In remaining fossil fired capacities – from 2040 latest CCS retrofit required (this includes gas) CCS prioritised in industrial emissions !!! CCS law to reflect this strategic requirement/ demonstration plants needed for robust evaluation of technology

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 14 Powersector specifics: No new coal fired power stations; Rapid (asap) demonstration in pilot-sites thinking about a Deutscher CCS-Entwicklungsplan for risk assessments and strategic planning of: -Potentials -Required infrastructure -Planning guidelines for sub-surface potentials (conflicts, competing uses, prioritisation) Deutschen Energie-Infrastruktur-Umbauprogramm to initiate and trigger off investment and commitments also for CO2 infrastructure (potentially combined with grid-planning for electricity)

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 15 Herzlicher Dank! Matthias Kopp WWF Deutschland

Datum: XX. XXX 2010 Kampagne Klimaschutz anpacken! Seite: 16 Rahmendaten Bis 2050 nimmt die Bevölkerung um 12,5% ab BSP ist 2050 ca. 1/3 über dem Niveau von 2005 (CAGR 0,7%) Industrie wächst um ca. 20% bis 2050 Ölpreise in 2050: nominal 429 USD, real 210 USD Biomasse Potenzial: 1200 PJ Primärenergie Verkehrssektor -Personenverkehr: vergleichbar mit heute -Güterverkehr steigt bis 2050 um 86%