Analysis of the Practicability of External Emergency Planning in Germany based on Experiences from the Fukushima Accident F. Gering, B. Gerich, E. Wirth und G. Kirchner BfS – Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Germany

Are we well prepared for Fukushima-like releases in Germany ?

Off-site emergency planning in Germany <100 km: Intake of stable iodine for children and pregnant women <25 km: Intake of stable iodine for adults < 45 years <10 km: Evacuation, Sheltering

Off-site emergency planning in Germany (2) Example for evacuation planning at NPP Biblis

Study of BfS (ongoing) Assessment of radiological consequences for several long-lasting (up to 30d), severe releases (all INES 7) with the RODOS system NPP Unterweser and NPP Philippsburg Based on real weather data from 2010 RODOS simulations up to 150 km Estimated doses were compared against German dose reference levels

KKU, Fukushima, June KKU, const. emiss., Dec. Results: Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation

Day 4Day 6Day 8 Eff. Dose (adults), external exposure and inhalation Sheltering

Summary of radiological consequences with respect to sheltering

Intake of stable iodine (children, pregnant women) Cities affected: - Wilhelmshaven - Bremerhaven - Bremen (partially) - Oldenburg (partially) approx children Thyroid dose for infants from inhalation of radioiodine 200 km

Conclusions (1) The size of areas, where reference levels for protective actions sheltering, evacuation and iodine prophylaxis are exceeded, by far exceeds the emergency planning for many of the accident scenarios considered in this study. Current plans for implementing protective actions in the sector (from the EPZ), which is directly hit by the contaminated plume, and in the neighbouring sectors does not fully account for long lasting releases where often all sectors around the NPP are affected to similar extent. In case of long lasting severe releases the critical situation can occur, that reference levels for protective actions are not exceeded in any 7- day-interval (for which some of the reference levels are currently defined in Germany), but the total dose over the release period by far exceeds the reference level.

Conclusions (2) In case of long lasting severe releases an one-time intake of stable iodine often is not sufficient for protecting the population against large thyroid doses. Multiple intake of stable iodine tablets is currently not sufficiently considered in emergency planning. (Intake of stable iodine at different times for different areas?) In case of long lasting severe releases the protective action sheltering imposes additional problems (e.g. the danger of being forced to order late evacuation even during passage of the plume, lifting of sheltering in one area while ordering in an another area), which may endanger the applicability of the action in general. Concepts for lifting of countermeasures have to account for scenarios with long lasting releases.

Outlook Consequences of long lasting releases on emergency planning might be discussed in an European research project possibly starting this year. We are very much interested to learn about similar considerations in other countries ! Contact:

Appendix

Dose reference levels in Germany

Evakuierung nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen SzenarioAbbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts Maximal- Entfernung (km) Fläche (km 2 )Anzahl betroffener Sektoren KKW Unterweser Fukushima, Juni a FKA-30d, Juni b FKA-15d, Juni c konst. QT,Juni d Fukushima, Dez a FKA-30d, Dez b FKA-15d, Dez c konst. QT,Dez d KKW Philippsburg Fukushima, Okt a FKA-30d, Okt b FKA-15d, Okt c konst. QT,Okt d Fukushima, Dez a FKA-30d, Dez b FKA-15d, Dez c konst. QT,Dez d

Einnahme von Iodtabletten nicht in Notfallplanung vorgesehen SzenarioAbbildung Gebiet mit Überschreitung des Richtwerts Maximal- Entfernung (km) Fläche (km 2 )Anzahl betroffener Sektoren KKW Unterweser Fukushima, Juni a> FKA-30d, Juni b FKA-15d, Juni c konst. QT,Juni d Fukushima, Dez a> FKA-30d, Dez b> FKA-15d, Dez c konst. QT,Dez d KKW Philippsburg Fukushima, Okt a FKA-30d, Okt b> FKA-15d, Okt c> konst. QT,Okt d Fukushima, Dez a FKA-30d, Dez b FKA-15d, Dez c konst. QT,Dez d

Umsiedlung 50 mSv (200 km 2 ) 20 mSv (1200 km 2 ) 100 mSv (56 km 2 ) Eff. Dosis (Erw.) durch Bodenstrahlung über 1 Jahr

Eff. Dosis durch externe Strahlung und Inhalation KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez.

KKP, FKA-15d, Okt. KKP, FKA-30d, Dez. Schilddrüsendosis für Kleinkinder durch Inhalation