Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Ernährungssicherheit – eine globale Aufgabe 11. Synode der Evangelischen Kirche in Deutschland 11. Nov. 2013 Alexander Müller Senior Fellow Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Potsdam/Germany

1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung 2. Lebensmittelabfall 3 1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung 2. Lebensmittelabfall 3. Der Klimawandel als neue Herausforderung

1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung

Source FAO, SOFI 2013

Source: UNPD, 2008 6

Bevölkerungswachstum 2010 und 2100 (Millionen)

Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung

Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung 2009 globales BIP US$58 Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung 2009 globales BIP US$58.22 Billionen, aber fast 80% der Menschen leben weiterhin von weniger als US$ 10/Tag.

Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung 2009 globales BIP US$58 Ungleichheit bei der Einkommensverteilung 2009 globales BIP US$58.22 Billionen, aber fast 80% der Menschen leben weiterhin von weniger als US$ 10/Tag. Die ärmsten 40 Prozent der Weltbevölkerung haben weniger als 5 Prozent des globalen Einkommens

Urbanization to accelerate 7 6 5 4 Rural 3 billion people 2 Urban 1 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

1. Food production: Growth will slow but still +70% between 2005/07 and 2050 +1,000 Million t Cereals (2,200 Million t today) +200 Million t meat (270 Millionen t today) +300 Millionen t of Soyabeans (215 millionen t today) 2. Trade : faster expansion DING : Netimports of cereals : 125 million t  300 million t DING: Netimports oilseeds : 8 million t  25 million t DING: Nettoexports sugar : 10 million t  20 million t 3. Nahrungsmittelpreise

% of population with kcal/person/day Outlook2050/80: provisional nutritional outcomes (global averages/aggregates) undernourished % of population with kcal/person/day obese % million >2700 >3000 2005/07 13 844 57 28 9 570 2050 4 330 91 52 15 1400 2080 2 150 98 66 21 2000

Lassen Sie mich geographisch auf den dynamischsten Markt zoomen, die USA Der rapide Anstieg des Maisverbrauchs für industrielle Zwecke. Davon entfallen ca. 121 mmt auf die Ethanolproduktion und ca 20mmt auf die Produktion von Stärke und Isoglucose. Ins Auge sticht aber auch der Rückgang in der Maisverfütterung. Aber Vorsicht. Die ist zum einen den hohen Preisen zum anderen aber und das ganz wesentlich der Substitution durch Maiskleber und Maiskleberfutter geschuldet. Er wird also weniger Mais direkt gefüttert dafür aber Nebenprodukte der Maisverarbeitung wieder re-cycled.

1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung 2. Lebensmittelabfall

Globale Wasserentnahme Sektoraler Wasserverbrauch Landwirt-schaft 70% Industrie 20% Städte 10% Landwirtschaft entnimmt mit 70 % den größten Anteil an Wasser! In einigen Entwicklungsländern bis zu 90%

This additional slides gives the order of magnitude of the water withdrawal by the various sector of the society. It clearly indicates that agriculture (and therefore food production) is the major water user.

Results Volumes Weltweit wurden 2007 schätzungsweise 1.3 Billiarden Tonnen agrarische Produkte weggeworfen Additional point: Food crops (i.e. vegetal products) account altogether for about 85% of total food wastage volumes, and the remaining 15% are coming from products of animal origin.

Results Volumes Weltweit wurden 2007 schätzungsweise 1.3 Billionen Tonnen agrarische Produkte weggeworfen Additional point: Food crops (i.e. vegetal products) account altogether for about 85% of total food wastage volumes, and the remaining 15% are coming from products of animal origin. The sum of the domestic agricultural production of all countries is about 6 Gtonnes. This value includes also agricultural production for other uses than food.

Volumes Jede Region in der Welt hat hat ein spezifisches Profil Results Volumes Jede Region in der Welt hat hat ein spezifisches Profil Volumes for the edible and the non-edible parts of food.

Results Volumes Weltweit verteilt sich die Menge des Abfalls gleichermaßen zwischen der Produktionsseite (54%) und dem Konsum (46%). Additional point: agricultural production is the main contributor with 33% of total food wastage volumes Volumes for the edible and the non-edible parts of food.

Carbon footprint Results CO2 Der “carbon foot print” von Lebensmittelabfall wird auf 3.3  Gt CO2 eq., geschätzt. total GHG emissions of all USA road transportation in 2010 = 1.5 Gtonnes of CO2 eq. (GHG data from UNFCCC, available at http://unfccc.int) Source for blue bars: WRI, 2012. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool. Available at: http://cait.wri.org.

Carbon footprint Results CO2 Tierische Produkte: 33 % des globalen “carbon footprint”, aber 15 % des Lebensmittelabfalls. All foodstuffs share a common characteristic: emissions of biogenic GHG such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) play an important role in their carbon footprints. CH4 and N2O are very powerful GHGs, CH4 having a weighting factor of 25 times CO2 and N2O 298 (IPCC 2007). The following discussion looks at the GHG characteristics of the commodities in the scope of the present study. Information presented here is taken from the LCA studies that were selected for the calculations. Cereals For cereals, the production and application of nitrogen fertiliser is a very important contributor to the overall climate impact of these products. The production of nitrogen fertiliser generates fossil CO2 and nitrous oxide. The application of the fertiliser generates direct emissions of nitrous oxide as well as indirect emissions because of ammonia release and leakage of nitrate. Secondly, the use of diesel for agricultural operations (ploughing, harvesting etc) and for drying the produce results in CO2 emissions. Differences in the impact between different types of cereals mostly depend on the yield level. It must be pointed out that one of the most important food staples is rice. Schematically, rice can be produced either in a dry (“upland”) or in a wet (“paddy”) system. Production of upland rice is similar to other grain crops from a climate impact perspective. The specific issue with paddy rice – which accounts for most of the rice production globally – is that methane is formed because of the anaerobic conditions encountered in the flooded fields. Pulses Pulses, such as peas and beans are efficient sources of protein compared to animal protein (i.e. they do not require the same amount of inputs per kg protein as compared to the inputs required to produce 1 kg of animal protein). Grain legumes’ ability to fixate nitrogen from air means that only small, if any, nitrogen fertiliser is applied in the cultivation, which lowers the emission factors of these products. Fruits, vegetables, and starchy roots In general, the production of fruits and field-grown vegetables generates relatively low GHG emissions. As for grains, the key drivers of emissions are the use of diesel and nitrogen fertilisers, as well as yield level. Potatoes and other roots are particularly efficient in the cultivation, because of very high yield per ha. Thus, emissions of GHGs per kg of product are low. Regarding vegetables grown in heated greenhouses, the type of heat production is the most important parameter for the product’s carbon footprint. Obviously, use of fossil fuels result in high emissions of GHGs. Meat and Dairy Products When it comes to GHG emissions from animal products, a distinction should be made between monogastric animals and ruminants. For monogastric animals such as pigs and poultry, the feed provision is the most important activity followed by manure management. The emissions are dominated by nitrous oxide from soil turnover of nitrogen and emissions from production of mineral fertilisers. Energy use can be of significance for some animals as chicken in order to maintain appropriate conditions in the buildings. For ruminants such as cattle, sheep and goats, emissions of methane are often the most important. Most methane originates from the enteric fermentation (digestion of feed in the rumen); a minor share comes from manure management. The second most important source of emission is nitrous oxide related to feed provision. It includes emissions caused by production of fertilisers, soil emissions of nitrous oxides and energy used in arable farming. Fisheries The climate impact of fisheries is dominated by carbon dioxide emissions from onboard diesel combustion, which is directly related to the amount of fuel used. The second major factor is the leakage of refrigerants from onboard cooling equipment if the refrigerants used have a high climate impact. Aquaculture The production of fish farm inputs (particularly the feed) often dominates the climate impact of aquaculture products. Note that some fish (e.g. carp, tilapia) are omnivores; they can feed on crop products or residues. Other species, including popular species such as salmon, trout, and cod, are predators that require some input of marine-based feed (e.g. fishmeal and fish oil in industrialized production systems). This increases the GHG emissions of carnivorous fish.

Blue water footprint Results Der “blue water footprint” des Lebensmittelabfalls ist ca. 250 km3, (3-faches Volumen des Genfer Sees) Blue water footprint is the total consumption of surface and ground water resources to produce a product

Land occupation Results Für Lebensmittelabfall wurden 2007 fast 1.4 Milliarden Hektar genutzt, dies entspricht ca. 28% des landwirtschaftlich genutzten Landes

1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung 2. Lebensmittelabfall 3 1. Globale Triebkräfte von Veränderung 2. Lebensmittelabfall 3. Der Klimawandel als neue Herausforderung

Source : FAO, NR Department

Cyclones/Extreme events Source : FAO, NR Drought Cyclones/Extreme events Sea level rise incidence (mangroves/deltas/SIDS) SIDS

The 2003 summer heat wave in Europe 30% reduction in gross primary production of terrestrial ecosystems Large reductions in agricultural production (13 billion €) Many very large wildfires Large CO2 emissions from soils Record low river flows affecting ecosystems, navigation and cooling of power plants Extreme glacier melt in the Alps prevented extremely low flows in the Danube river Excess deaths due to very hot temperatures (about 35,000) MODIS data IPCC WG-II (2007)

Landwirtschaft muß sich an den Klimawandel anpassen!

Wasser: Neue Herausforderungen durch den Klimawandel runoff ≈ year 2050 AM: Do we have other info on the impact of CC?

Danke sehr