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5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln QUEST Quantitative Evaluation of Regional.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln QUEST Quantitative Evaluation of Regional."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln QUEST Quantitative Evaluation of Regional Precipitation Forecasts Using Multi- Dimensional Remote Sensing Observations

2 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations Partnership Susanne Crewell, Thorsten Reinhardt, University of Cologne (IGM) Jürgen Fischer, Anja Hünerbein, FU Berlin (FUB) George Craig, Martin Hagen, Monika Pfeifer, (DLR) Michael Baldauf, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Nicole van Lipzig, Ingo Meirold-Mautner, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KUL), Belgium (QUEST-B) Contributes to PQP Goals Identification of physical and chemical processes responsible for the deficiencies in quantitative precipitation forecast Determination and use of the potentials of existing and new data and process descriptions to improve quantitative precipitation forecast

3 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln satellite MSG ~ 5km; 15min Cloud Mask Cloud top pressure MODIS ~ 1km; 1day Cloud Mask Optical thickness IPT / Micro- wave 1D vertical; Lindenberg (and Cabauw) temperature profile humidity profile LWC GPS ~ 147 stations; Germany; 15min IWV Ceilometer 17 stations; Germany; 1min; ranges up to 4km Cloud base height Cloud cover (<4km) Radar DWD radar composite; 1km; 5min Rain rate RANIE combined radar and gauge analysis Polarimetric radar (DLR) Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST) Observations Surface: rain gauges

4 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln QUEST: Strategy Observations - multi-frequency radiances - polarimetric radar quantities - ground-based and space-borne observations Forward OperatorRetrieval Weather Forecasts - three-dimensional description of the forecasted atmospheric state - focus on Lokal-Modell Kürzestfrist (LMK) - SynPolRad (polari. radar) - SynSat (MSG, MODIS) - SynSatMic (AMSU, SSM/I) - water vapour - cloud properties - precipitation Schröder et al. [2006]

5 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln QUEST: Approach Case Studies (ongoing) Model Sensitivity Runs Tool development SynPolRad SynSat (-Mic) MSG µ-phys. retrievals verification measures.. Hypothesis formulation "What are the crucial variables/processes to observe and to improve?" Model Improvement (new) cloud microphysics land surface turbulence comparison tools test of hypotheses Identification of systematic model deficits Long-Term Evaluation Lokal-Modell Kürzestfrist test suites GOP duration 2007 benefits of high resolution modelling Conditional verification regionalization diurnal cycle weather situation dep. Cross correlation of different variables "How important is physical consistency?" case study selection for process studies

6 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Case studies versus long-term evaluation Case Studies Long-Term Evaluation + Detailed analysis + Formulation of hypothesis + Tool development - Low significance - Subjectively chosen cases + Sensitivity runs feasible / physical explanation + High significance - Difficult to identify physical mechanism - Automated analysis + Objective selection of cases

7 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Mesh size: x = 2.8 km direct simulation of deep convection convection parameterization for shallow part only assimilation of radar data by latent heat nudging method timestep T=25 s 421 x 461 x 50 gridpoints, lowest model level in 10 m above surface Centre of domain: 10 °E, 50 °N Forecast time: 21 h, started every 3 h Boundary conditions from Lokal-Modell Europa (COSMO-LME) with x = 7 km Deutscher Wetterdiensts Lokal-Modell Kürzestfrist (COSMO-LMK)

8 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln LMKRadarLM Case study (M. Baldauf DWD) 3.9 mm/day 5.2 mm/day 3.4 mm/day mm/day Accumulated precipitation over 24 hr

9 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln General Observation Period (GOP) Year Central activity of QUEST in second phase of PP.

10 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln gather as many data about the atmospheric state as possible within an area covering Germany and it neighboring states. to provide information of all kinds of precipitation types to identify systematic model deficits to select case studies for specific problems to relate the COPS results to a broader perspective (longer time series and larger spatial domain) GOP Organization and Performance The General Observation Period January to December 2007 encompasses COPS in time and space

11 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln GOP Partnership Karl Bumke (IFM-Geomar) Disdrometer observations (WP 3) Susanne Crewell (IGM) Overall GOP organisation Galina Dick (GFZ) GPS observations (WP 5) Jürgen Fischer (FUB) Satellite observations (WP 7) Martin Hagen (DLR) GOP weather radar data (WP 2) Thomas Hauf (UHan) Lightning networks (WP 6) Christian Koziar (Thomas Hanisch) (DWD) Access to DWD observations (all WPs) Armin Mathes (Univ. Bonn) Coordination/QC rain gauges (WP 1) Mario Mech (IGM) GOP data management Gerhard Peters (UHH) Micro Rain Radar (WP 3) Matthias Wiegner (LMU) EARLINET Observations (WP 4) and many more + DKRZ (Claudia Wunram, Hannes Thiermann) + COPS General Observation Period 2007

12 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Rain gauge GOP Ingredients: Precipitation Weather Radar Drop Size Distribution WP-GOP-1Rain gauges; DWD precip analyses (RANIE, REGNIE) WP-GOP-2Weather Radar WP-GOP-3Drop Size Distribution DSD several hundred independent observations by DWD, water authorities, environmental agencies etc DWD analyses: RANIE, REGNIE DWD radar network and research radars, 3D volume scans, PI, RY, QY, RADOLAN vertical structure at about 15 locations with Micro Rain Radar (MRR) Continuous precipitation observation with high temporal resolution

13 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Lindenberg Zingst Helgoland Lichtenau Wien IMK MPI_4/IG4 DWD_2 UKO DLR MPI_1/IG2 DWD_1 MPI_2MPI_3/IG1 UHH_1/IG3 MPI UHH_2 UBO_1 UBO_2 LAMP Micro Rain Radar MRR-2 Optical Distrometer ODM470_1 Optical Distrometer FD12P Optical Distrometer PARSIVEL Distrometer JOSS/WALDVOGEL Scanning X-Band Radar (LAWR) DLRInst. Phys. Atmos., Oberpfaffenhofen DWD_1R. Assmann Obs., Lindenberg DWD_2Met.. Obs. Hohenpeissenberg IG_1-4IfM Geomar, Kiel IMKInst. Met. Klim., Karlsruhe LAMPLaboratoire de Météorologie Physique MPI_1-4MPI Hamburg UBO_1-2Uni Bonn UHH_1-2Uni Hamburg UKÖUni Köln WienUni Wien GOP-3 Gerhard Peters

14 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln WP-GOP-4Lidar (aerosol, cloud base, mixing layer height) WP-GOP-5GPS water vapour column WP-GOP-6Lightning networks WP-GOP-7Satellite observations (cloud properties, water vapor, aerosol) WP-GOP-8Meteorological stations Lidar GOP Ingredients: Auxillary Information GPS AMF EARLINET stations (4), about 100 lidar ceilometer stations in Germany DWD: ca 147 stations in LMK area, ca 200 in LME area + GPS COPS + Switzerland European and national networks VLF and VHF MSG, MODIS, MERIS, AMSU, CLOUDSAT, CALIPSO ARM Mobile Facility (AMF), Lindenberg, diverse universities and research institutes

15 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln GOP-7: Satellites MSG: - cloud mask - cloud top pressure (+temperature?), - optical depth - IR brightness temperature MODIS: - cloud mask - cloud optical thickness τ - liquid water path LWP - effective radius r eff - geometric cloud thickness H - IWV - aerosol? MERIS: - cloud mask - cloud optical thickness τ - cloud top pressure (+temperature?)

16 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Evaluation Areas Northsea Baltic Sea Alps North western German lowland North eastern German lowland Low mountain ranges COPS area Countries (D, B, A, CH, NL, F) River catchments (in Germany) LMK domain

17 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Diurnal comparisons / plots, processed near real-time (Quicklooks) Radiosoundings: Plots for each sounding in Germany and neigbouring countries - Stüve diagramm together with corresponding +12h LMK forecast - differences of temperature, specific humidity and wind speed forecasts (+0,+3,+6,+9,+12,+15,+18,+21 h) at each model level GPS, Ceilometer: Daily colour coded maps of BIAS/RMSE of cloud base height (ceilometer) and IWV (GPS); LMK vs. observation GOP - First order model evaluation Monthly comparisons / plots. Radiosoundings: Bias and RMSE profiles for temperature, humidity and wind for all stations Ceilometer / GPS: Monthly time series of Bias/RMSE for each station or region (depending on number of stations within regions) Ceilometer / GPS: Monthly analysis of mean diurnal cycle and comparison to differnet model runs (lagged ensemble)

18 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Example for GPS Quicklook

19 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Example for Radiosonding Quicklooks

20 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Task: Archiving model output Total LMK output too large for permanent storage! => Therefore: Extracting model output relevant for model evaluation : 3 types of data extraction: 1.) statistics over (sub-) areas, timeseries at stations (1-d in time) 2.) column output at individual gridpoints (2-d in height and time) 3.) field output (3-d in x,y,t)

21 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln 1d output (time series) -- statistics of individual quantities (precip, wind, …) in (sub-)domains for direct evaluation & classification für weather-type dependent evaluation -- time series of near-surface variables Werte at Synop stations -- time series of integrated water vapour (IWV) at GPS stations -- time series of cloud base height at ceilometer stations -- time series of precipitation at precipitation stations

22 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln 2d output (column output) All available variables at certain gridpoints with vertically sounding instruments: -- Radiosonding stations -- Micro rain radars (ca 15) -- ARM Mobile Facility -- Earlinet stations -- Cloudnet stations -- COPS Supersites -- Meteorological Observatories

23 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Field Output -- brightness temperature of synthetic MSG channels -- radar reflectivity in 850 hPa, max. radar reflectivity in column -- Integrated condensate (TQC,TQR,TQS,TQG) -- height of cloud top and cloud base -- cloud cover (CLCT, CLCL, CLCM, CLCH) -- optical thickness -- precipitation (R, S, G), rates and sums -- radiation balances -- CAPE -- HZERO; 850-hPA temperature, wind; 500-hPa geopotential -- albedo, ground temperature For AMSU: all prognostic variables at overpass times for comparison with area covering instruments (radar, satellite)

24 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Cloud top MSGCloud base Ceilometer Cloud cover MSG Examples of LTE (I): cloud parameters

25 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Example of LTE (II): cloud cover Cloud cover (%) LMK00 / LMK12 BIAS (%)STD (%)Korrelation LMK total8 / 59 / / 0.80 North Sea9 / 817 / / 0.70 Alpes6 / 214 / / 0.81 Lowlands9 / 717 / / 0.70 Low mountains7 / 515 / / 0.67 Poldirad area5 / 217 / / 0.75 COPS area4 / 022 / / 0.61 Meteosat Second Generation comparison: July 2004 Cabauw Lindenberg AMF run 00UTCrun 12UTC

26 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln MSG data – Cloud top pressure Overestimation of cloud top height by model Model simulates realistically no great variation throughout a day. OBS model Daily cycleDaily cycle of RSME (run started at 00UTC) Example of LTE (III): cloud cover

27 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Summary LMK LTE LE Boundary layer too thin and too wet IWV generally well predicted IWV Bias of kg/m 2 for runs started at 12 UTC Clouds too thick Cloud cover in good agreement with MSG Precipitation underestimated by 20% (problem addressed in the maintime by several model changes) Daily cycle not well forecast Case studies to look into more detail in the problems

28 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Observation LMK, Thompson, Rain, snow, graupel LMK, 2 comp. Rain, snow LMK, 3 comp. Rain, snow, graupel Reflectivity Case study example: pol.radar By Monika Pfeifer, DLR

29 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Observation LMK :3 comp. Rain, snow, graupel Hydrometeor Classification LMK : 2 comp. Rain, snow LMK: Thompson Rain, snow, graupel Case study example: pol.radar By Monika Pfeifer, DLR

30 5.-9. März 2007, Bad Herrenalb Thorsten Reinhardt, Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Summary QUEST Goals Optimization and refinement of existing evaluation tools Identification of systematic errors in precipitation and cloud fields forecasts Exploitation of the complementary information of the different remote sensing observations; model consistency; cross-correlation of model performance for different variables Evaluate model using long-term observations collected during the GOP Provide an independent test bed for model improvements Improve LMK performance by changes in the treatment of cloud microphysics, turbulence, land surface,… (motivated by results of model evaluation)


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