Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino 17.05.20141 Kanton Tessin / BAFU Hochwasservorhersage.

Präsentation zum Thema: "Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino 17.05.20141 Kanton Tessin / BAFU Hochwasservorhersage."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino 17.05.20141 Kanton Tessin / BAFU Hochwasservorhersage

2 Calibration - Already calibrated areas:

3 Manual Calibration PREVAH Manual Calibration RS3.0 Calibration approach Tuneable Parameters Precipitation correction Threshold coefficient for surface runoff /quick runoff formation Storage time for surface runoff Storage time for interflow Xml-file (discharge) Tuneable Parameters Hydropower infrastructure (intakes, derivations, storage, powerplants) Storage accumulation/release (volume, energy demand, legislations, etc..) River bed hydraulics (slope, river bed geometry)

4 Strategien Kalibrierung –Langfristig (Jahresverlauf) Staureferenzniveau –Kurzfristig (Tages/Wochen) Strompreise –Rahmenbedingungen Wehrreglement und andere Kalibrierung RS3.0 Fokus auf: Zielniveaukurven (saisonale Volumen Verschiebung) Umleiten von Wasser durch Fassungen, Galerien (geographische Verschiebung)

5 Calibration approach RoutingSystemTarget Level Curve Die Target Level Curve wird verwendet um das langzeitverhalten der grossen Reservoire zu simulieren. Falls vorhanden wird die Zielkurve über gemittelte historische Jahreskurven definiert (in diesem fall 2000-2011) Falls nicht wird die Zielkurve definiert in dem man den Ertrag des Kraftwerkes optimiert (saisonalen Energiepreisschwankungen nutzen und Überlaufereignisse minimieren) Sambuco: 64 Mio m 3

6 Strategien Kalibrierung Speichermanagement: –Kombination von lang- und kurz-fristiger Optimierung Staureferenzniveau Strompreise Führt zu Turbinieren trotz tiefer Preise Turbinieren trotz tiefem Level Kalibrierung RS3.0

7 Calibration and validation results Moesa: Moesa Lumino-Sassello Efficiency criteria 1999- 2004 Calibration 2005- 2010 Validation 1999- 2010 NS0.6680.6310.66 NSlog0.550.4870.529 VOL-302.9280.9-22 Yearly discharge maxima 1999- 2004 Calibration 2005- 2010 Validation 1999- 2010 NS0.780.700.75 NSlog0.830.760.8 VOL-173518 Calancasca Efficiency criteria

8 Calibration and validation results Moesa: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec observed [mm]35.92840.479.2252.2228.5159.5128109.1124.5131.165.9 simulated [mm]31.82948.495.2239.7212.9160.4141.4115.2124.5129.752.2 Mean monthly sum of discharge

9 Calibration and validation results Moesa: Comparison of discharge

10 Calibration and validation results Moesa: Discharge components: R0= Surface runoff [mm h -1 ]; R1= Interflow [mm h -1 ]; R2= Total baseflow [mm h -1 ]; RTOT= Total runoff [mm h -1 ]

11 Mean monthly water balance for the long-time perios, sum of all years (table) Mean yearly water balance (table) Maps of some water balance variables (whole area) Further results, which will be included in the report: Composite of 37 PREVAH sub-basins 1998-2010: Left: average annual actual evapotranspiration [mm]; Right: average annual discharge [mm]

12 Calibration and validation results Ponte Tresa: 1999- 2004 Calibration 2005- 2010 Validation 1999- 2010 NS0.8260.8070.822 NSlog0.8370.8050.824 VOL-823.88-494.19-1318.06

13 Difficulties during calibration process: - Low NS and Nslog-values for Riva San Vitale_Laveggio, Porlezza, Lugano- Scariolo Riva San Vitale_Laveggio PorlezzaLugano Scariolo 1999- 2004 Calib. 2005- 2010 Valid. 1999- 2010 NS0.5640.0610.421 NSlog0.5990.3130.474 VOL300-25941 2007- 2009 Calib. 2000- 2002, 2010 Valid. 2001- 2001, 2006- 2010 NS0.50.2420.313 NSlog0.6860.610.598 VOL-57-53 2001- 2005 Calib. 0.3012001- 2010 NS0.4310.280.358 NSlog0.1190.3640.261 VOL-17258

14 Difficulties during calibration process: Bsp: Riva San Vitale_Laveggio 2001

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16 PREVAH