NaLaMa-nT Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland unter sich ändernden ökologischen, ökonomischen und gesellschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen Sustainable Land Management in the North German Lowlands Gouvernment-sponsored by „Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung“

goal - Sustainable Land Management in the North German Lowlands under consideration of different developments in nature and society

Background and Motivation   A sustainable land management of the 21 century has to be developed and observed in due consideration of the effects of global change. The changes in natural resources, produce and financial markets, as well as climate change, pose great challenge and substantial influence on the chances and risks of forestry and agriculture. In addition, structural regional changes are very important. They demand adaptation in land management and, if necessary, reorientation. On the evidence of the already existing and still growing uncertainties, these measures should be conceived in such a way that they allow for a flexible reaction on changing conditions und consider the interactions between different land-use systems.  The following severe changes have already occurred or are likely to arise: the demand of food, timber and other renewable raw materials rises worldwide, new production and processing capacities for both substantial and energetic utilisation are built, the intensity of both agricultural and silvicultural land use rises, habitat range and biodiversity are restrained in many ways, production basis, risks and yield prospects change due to the expected resp. already ongoing climate change and the atmospheric element input, the demand for drinking water in conurbations and for raw water in agriculture rises, German population ages and increasingly leaves rural areas, the regional consumer structure alters, areal competition between agriculture, forestry, production (food, substantial and energetic utilisation) and nature conservation increases, interests and utilisation conflicts in competing for water aggravate among land users.

interdisciplinarity and tasks

Areas under investigation Dümmer; moor, agriculture agriculture agriculture; lakes and woods Areas under investigation forestry

project structure

project co-ordination

project presentation for stakeholders

PIK‘s project contribution calculation of different climate scenarios (2011 – 2070) using the model STARS provision of observed and scenario data expert advice for use of climatological data climate analysis

selection of RCP-scenario  RCP 8.5

selection of temperature trend Models maxt Annual mean of air temperature ca. 3.0 – 6.5 K / 100a medt mint Annual mean of the daily sum of precipitation ca. -220 - +218 mm / 100a (annual sum) Gelb: Schwankungsbreite der einzelnen Jahreswerte selection of temperature trend source: P. Hoffmann, PIK

example for climate analysis Difference of the mean frequency of days with frost and without snow 2041/2070 – 1981/2010 Mean frequency of days with frost and without snow 1981 – 2010 example for climate analysis

Partners Abteilung für Hydrologie und Wasserwirtschaft, Institut für Natur- und Ressourcenschutz, Christian- Albrechts-Universität Kiel Department Bodenphysik, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH (UFZ), Leipzig FG Landschaftsökonomie, Institut für Landschaftsarchitektur und Umweltplanung, TU Berlin Georg-August-Universität Göttingen Abteilung Graslandwissenschaft Abteilung Allgemeine Pflanzenpathologie und Pflanzenschutz Abteilung Produktionssysteme der Nutztiere Abteilung für Forstökonomie und Forsteinrichtung Abteilung Forst- und Naturschutzpolitik und Forstgeschichte Institut für Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaften, Universität Halle-Wittenberg Landeskompetenzzentrum Forst Eberswalde (LFE), Landesbetrieb Forst Brandenburg, Eberswalde Landkreis Diepholz Landkreis Uelzen Lehrstuhl für Landschaftsökologie, Hochschule Vechta Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF) e.V., Müncheberg Institut für Landnutzungssysteme Institut für Sozioökonomie Nordwestdeutsche Forstliche Versuchsanstalt (NW-FVA), Göttingen Abteilung Waldwachstum Abteilung Waldschutz Abteilung Umweltkontrolle Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Potsdam Professur für Phytomedizin, Agrar- und Umweltwissenschaftliche Fakultät, Universität Rostock Regionale Planungsgemeinschaft Havelland-Fläming, Teltow Regionale Planungsgemeinschaft Oderland-Spree, Beeskow Regionale Planungsgemeinschaft Anhalt-Bitterfeld-Wittenberg, Köthen

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