Needs and use of post processing and model interpretation, examples Model fields: calculated parameters from one model or an ensemble of model forecasts as new GRIB DMO and Model output statistics (MOS) Weather parameters near the surface for many (1000) locations, deterministic and probabilistic T. Kratzsch, DWD, WV1

List of forecast Parameters for the customers 03261 +001 0901 /// /// /// /// // // // /// /// 03 / / / / / / //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +002 0902 /// /// /// /// // // // /// /// 03 / / / / / / //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +003 0903 /// /// /// /// // // // /// /// 03 / / / / / / //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +004 0904 /// /// /// /// // // // /// /// 03 / / / / / / //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +005 0905 /// /// /// /// // // // /// /// 03 / / / / / / //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +006 0906  08  07 ///  05 35 09 // --- 000 03 2 7 6 4 0 1 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +007 0907  10  08 /// /// 34 09 // /// /// 02 / 7 7 7 0 1 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +008 0908  11  08 /// /// 35 09 // /// /// 02 / 8 7 7 0 1 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +009 0909  12  07 /// /// 36 09 // --- 000 02 / 8 7 7 1 2 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +010 0910  12  07 /// /// 00 09 // /// /// 03 / 8 6 6 2 2 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +011 0911  12  07 /// /// 01 10 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 6 2 2 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +012 0912  13  06 /// /// 02 10 // --- 000 03 2 7 7 6 3 2 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +013 0913  13  06 /// /// 02 10 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 5 3 3 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +014 0914  13  06 /// /// 02 09 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 5 2 3 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +015 0915  13  06 /// /// 02 09 // --- 000 03 / 7 6 4 2 4 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +016 0916  13  07 /// /// 02 09 // /// /// 80 / 7 6 4 2 4 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +017 0917  13  07 /// /// 01 08 // /// /// 80 / 7 6 4 2 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +018 0918  12  07  14 /// 01 08 // --- 000 03 8 7 6 3 2 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +019 0919  12  07 /// /// 00 07 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 3 3 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +020 0920  11  07 /// /// 36 07 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 3 3 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +021 0921  10  08 /// /// 35 06 // --- 000 03 / 7 6 3 3 4 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +022 0922  10  07 /// /// 35 06 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 3 3 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +023 0923  09  07 /// /// 34 06 // /// /// 03 / 7 6 3 3 5 //// /// /// /// //// 03261 +024 1000  09  07 /// /// 34 06 // --- 000 03 2 7 6 3 4 5 //// /// /// /// //// List of forecast Parameters for the customers

„WANTED“ …. und weitere Zielgröße benutzte Größen in NinJo vorhanden   in NinJo vorhanden nicht vorhanden Sonnenscheindauer (Minuten/Stunde) und relativ Globalstrahlung (Stundensumme) div. Parameter der Sonnenbahn Beleuchtungsstärke Windrichtung 100m-Wind (stdl.), div. Höhen 100m-Wind (3-stdl.) Windgeschwindigkeit 100m-Wind (stdl.), div. Höhen Diffusionskategorie Windgeschwindigkeit, Gesamtbe-deckung, Tageszeit …. und weitere

Model fields: calculated parameters from one model or an ensemble of model forecasts as new GRIB The role of the meteorologist: Understand what the models does, i.e. reasons for increasing/decreasing of intensity Spread of the lowest and strongest solution in an ensemble Comparison of different models (area, time, intensity of met. events) Useful parameters, that are not model values (fog, Ceiling) Describe that (Guidance texts) and react if model goes wrong Comparison is much easier with combined / resulting parameters (ww, rain amount) Monitoring of predictands for severe weather events (SDI, tornado parameters, severe ice etc)

Interpretation of Ensemble results: Don‘t look for 50 members but for the Prob. of predictible values Probability fields for tresholds of wind gusts and rainfall, Areas of low preasure or large values of CAPE or CIN Probabilities do not replace deterministic values for both – meteorologists and customers! Met. and users need deterministic forecasts and warnings (Guidances) Probs for warning tresholds transformed to Guidance (first guess) of deterministic warnings (severeness and duration)

Samstag, 12 UTC ww + Bodendruck + Fronten 06.08., 00 + 60 H Z + T 500 hPa 06.08., 00 + 60 H

Sonntag, 12 UTC ww + Bodendruck + Fronten 06.08., 00 + 84 H Z + T 500 hPa 06.08., 00 + 60 H Z 300 hPa / Omega 700hPa 06.08., 00 + 84 UTC

Analyse (A-Format), 04.08., 06 UTC Z 300 hPa / Omega 700 hPa 04.08., 00 + 06 H

Heute, 06 UTC Z 300 hPa / Omega 700hPa 06.08., 06 UTC Analyse, 06 UTC, A-Format

Sonntag, 12 UTC GME, 23.07., 00 + 84 H Z 300 hPa / Omega 700 hPa GME, TKB + ww

12-std. Niederschlag bis Samstag, 18 UTC, COSMO-EU, 06. 08 12-std. Niederschlag bis Samstag, 18 UTC, COSMO-EU, 06.08., 00 + 54 … 66 H 12-std. Gewitterwahrscheinlichkeit, MOS(EZMW), 06.08., 00 + 54 …66 H

Prob RR > 1 mm, MOS(EZMW) 09.07., 00 + 78 … 90 H Simuliertes Sat-Bild (EZMW) 08.07., 12 + 96 H

fx, COSMO-DE, 23.07., 00 + 18 H

Mittwoch, 18 UTC CAPE + Lifting Index GFS, 09.07., 00 + 162 H Z + T 850 hPa

COSMO-DE, ww, 21.07., 12 + 06 H + Blitzbeobachtungen

EZMW, Z 1000 hPa EPS-Mittel für Sonntag, 16.August, 12 UTC Modelllauf vom 05.08., 00 UTC Modelllauf vom 04.08., 12 UTC EZMW, Z 1000 hPa EPS-Mittel für Sonntag, 16.August, 12 UTC Modelllauf vom 04.08., 00 UTC Modelllauf vom 03.08., 12 UTC

EPS des EZMW: Kumulative Verteilungs- Funktion der einzelnen Vorhersagen Rot: 08.07., 12 UTC Violett: 08.07., 00 UTC Dunkelblau: 07.07., 12 UTC usw.

Kombinierte EFI-Karte, 22.07., 12 UTC

Do Fr Sa So Mo Di Mi Do Fr Sa So

„WANTED“ seit 2005 / 2007: Parameter in der Grenzschicht / Bodennähe: Relative Feuchte in 975 hPa Eckertscher Nebelindex auf LMK Basis Ceiling nach TAF Kriterien (Wolkenuntergrenze mit Bedeckungsgrad >= 4/8) lokale Feuchteänderung (zeitlich, z.B. 1stg. / 3stg.) als Hinweis für Tornadobildung aus LMK Konvektionsparameter als Grib-Felder: Parameter werden mittels der Umgebungsmethode (Berücksichtigung auch der Nachbargitterpunkte) berechnet. Konvektionsparameter: Lifting Condensation Level, Level of Free Convection Mixed-Layer CAPE over 0-3 km, Experimental Spout/Tornado index Equilibrium Level Convective Cloud Top Temperature MSL Pressure, 500 hPa Height, Mixed-Layer CAPE (lowest 1000m parcel) Supercell Detection Index (SDI) vertikale Windscherung 0-1km, 0-3km, 0-6km aus LMK als Tornadohinweis weitere Tornado-Indizes, vgl. Email an Dr. Seifert, Papier von Herrn Friedrich aus 2005 Vereisungsprognose: ADWICE auf Basis des LMK Schneefallgrenze oder /und Nullgradgrenze aus LME und LMK

How to give deterministic and probabilistic forecasts to users/customers that are interested in (deterministic) values for locations from high resolution models? Use of interpretation methods from global models in high resolution models? How to communicate uncertainty?