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Theorie und Politik der Europäischen Integration Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lecture 6 A Monetary History of Europe Choice of Exchange Rate Systems Theory.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "Theorie und Politik der Europäischen Integration Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lecture 6 A Monetary History of Europe Choice of Exchange Rate Systems Theory."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Theorie und Politik der Europäischen Integration Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lecture 6 A Monetary History of Europe Choice of Exchange Rate Systems Theory and Politics of Eropean Integration

2 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Last Lecture Growth effects, capital and labour market integration Growth effects ·Static and dynamic effects of integration ·Static: allocation effects ·Neoclassical (Solow) growth model: temporary growth effects, in steady state higher income level ·Endogenous growth models: continuous growth effects via higher investment in physical and human (knowledge) capital which increases rate of technological progress ·Empirical evidence: higher transitional growth through integration Capital market integration ·Integration equalises capital endowments and interest rates ·Creates winners and loses in sending and receiving countries ·Aggregate income gain

3 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Last Lecture Labour market integration ·Institutions ·Scale of migration and income differences ·Composition of migrants, self-selection and out-selection ·Labour market impact –Standard model with perfect labour markets –Equalisation of wage rates –Aggregate gains, but winners and losers –More complex models: –Capital stock adjustment –Wage rigidities and unemployment –Empirical evidence

4 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe This lecture: Monetary Integration I A monetary history of Europe Metallic money The gold standard The interwar period The post-wa

5 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Why studying history? Monetary union is the controversial end of a long process. History helps understand. Since paper money was invented, Europes monetary history carries important lessons. Particularly the bad ones. Before paper money, Europe was a de facto monetary union. Understand how it worked helps understand how the new union (EMU) works.

6 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Metallic Money Under metallic money (overlooking the difference between gold and silver) the whole world was really a monetary union Seignorage as key source of public finance ·shaving as a means to generate revenues Multiplicity of money Previous explicit unions only agreed on the metal content of coins to simplify everyday trading

7 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Metallic Money: Some Details F rom immemorial until 19th century metallic money (gold or silver) dominant means of payment Bimetallism (gold and silver) with fluctuating exchange rates depending on discoveries Monetary unions as a tool of nation-building e.g. Germany: before 1871 different monetary standards Two historical monetary unions Latin Monetary Union (BE, FR, IT) to preserve bimetallism Scandinavian Monetary Union ceased at WWI

8 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Gold standard Classic gold standard period Frequent financial crises, armed conflicts and depressions Working of the gold standard: Humes price-specie- mechanism (specie = money/gold) Key assumptions or macroeconomic principles long-run neutrality of money ·rate of inflation is driven by rate of money growth effect of money on interest rates Helps to understand working of EMU

9 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Neutrality of money and current account equilibrium gold money price level P1P1 M1M1 M0M0 A current account deficit current account surplus

10 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Neutrality of money and current account equilbrium gold money price level P1P1 M1M1 M0M0 A current account deficit current account surplus Money determines the price level (in the long run)

11 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Neutrality of money and current account equilbrium gold money price level P*P* M1M1 M0M0 A current account deficit current account surplus Price level affects the trade balance If domestic prices are high relative to foreign prices, we have a deficit Conversely, relatively low domestic prices lead to a trade surplus

12 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Neutrality of money and current account equilbrium gold money price level P1P1 M1M1 M0M0 A current account deficit current account surplus Trade balance is achieved when the stock of money is M 1, and, hence, domestic prices equal P*.

13 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Balance of payment equilibrium gold money 0 M0M0 AC BB outflow of money inflow of money BoP

14 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Balance of payment equilbrium gold money 0 M0M0 A C BB outflow of money inflow of money Humes mechanism: return to balance is automatic. If we start with a high money stock (e.g. point B), domestic prices are high, balance of payments turns in deficit and gold flows out, but commodities in (current account surplus) Why? We have to buy other goods by gold. BoP

15 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Balance of payment equilbrium gold money 0 M0M0 A C B B outflow of money inflow of money If we start with a low money stock (e.g. point C), balance of payments turns in surplus and gold flows in, but commodities out (current account deficit) Point A correesponds to price level P* and money supply M1 in first graph, where current account is in equilbrium BoP

16 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Financial account equilibrium gold money interest rate i* M2M2 M0M0 A financial account surplus financial account deficit

17 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Financial account equilibrium gold money interest rate i* M2M2 M0M0 A financial account surplus financial account deficit Much the same story applies to the financial account: if the stock of money increases, the domestic interest rate declines if the interest rate is below the international rate i*, it pays to borrow gold at home and ship it abroad, i.e. capital flows out

18 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Financial account equilibrium gold money interest rate i* M2M2 M0M0 A financial account surplus financial account deficit Thus, if i > i*, capital account is in surplus, and if i < i* it turns into a deficit Equilibrium is achieved if i = i*

19 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Financial account equilibrium gold money interest rate i* M2M2 M0M0 A financial account surplus financial account deficit Relation between financial and current account: Capital inflow increases interest rate and prices Both capital and current account deteriorate Trade route is slower, but both work in same direction

20 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary equilibrium under gold standard Money in excess of M 0 translates into balance of payment deficits and gold outflows If money is in short supply (left of A = M 0 ), balance of payments is in surplus and gold flows in Point A may correspond to a point with imbalances in current and capital account, e.g. a point where the current account deficit exactly matches the capital account surplus Thus, the gold standard results in a balance of payments equilibrium in the long-run, but not (necessarily) a current account or capital account equilibrium

21 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary equilibrium under gold standard Financial markets support equilibrium: if money supply declines, interest rate increases, which attracts capital Over time, if a country is in short supply of gold money supply stringency creates increasing interest rates, growth slow-down, higher unemployment and a downward pressure on prices and wages All markets contribute to eliminate external imbalance, no need for government intervention (in theory)

22 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Rules of the game and problems Full gold convertibility at fixed price of all banknotes Full backing. Central Bank holds same amount of gold as notes issued Complete freedom of trade and capital mobility Problems: Sticky prices and wages (short-term disequilibria) World money supply driven by discoveries and money demand driven by economic growth go not hand in hand Governments facing deficits tend to opt out of gold standard

23 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Similarities to the EMU EURO replaces gold (no national money supply) Humes mechanism works in Eurozone: Balance of payments surplus translates into EURO inflows Balance of payments deficit translates into EURO outflows Exchange rate cannot be used to equilibrate external deficits Adjustment has to work via prices and wages

24 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The interwar period: the worst of all worlds Shipping gold became too dangerous and paper money starts circulating widely Yet the authorities attempt to carry on with the gold standard but: No agreement on how to set exchange rates between paper monies An imbalanced starting point with war legacies ·High inflation ·High public debts

25 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The interwar period: three case studies The British case: return to gold standard pre-war parity and refusal to devalue an overvalued currency relative to US breeds economic decline. Abolished unsustainable gold standard in 1931 and devalued currency by 30%. Cost: decade of miserable growth. The French case: high debts hoping for Germans reparations, inflation soared after reparations failed. Return to gold standard and devaluation in 1928; undervaluation and beggar-your-neighbour policies protected economy first, but then others retaliate and the currency becomes overvalued, badly hit by Great Depression. The German case: hyperinflation, gold standard no option (reparations), devaluation and anti-inflation policy in 1924, turns into overvaluation in the early 1930s, and, finally, evading the choice of an appropriate exchange rate by resorting to ever-widening non-market controls under Nazi government.

26 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Lessons so far We need a system, one way or another The gold standard – monetary unions – delivers automatic return to equilibrium, but at the cost of booms and recessions No agreement leads to exchange rate misalignments, competitive devaluations and trade wars Domestic misbehaviour undermine fixed exchange rates such as gold standard Exchange rate agreements require rules of the game, including a conductor, e.g. city of London before WW I

27 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe European post-war arrangements An overriding desire for exchange rate stability Initially provided by the Bretton Woods system The US dollar as anchor and the IMF as conductor Gold convertibility of US-$: 35 US-$ per ounce Once Bretton Woods collapsed, the Europeans were left on their own The timid Snake arrangement The European Monetary System The European Monetary Union

28 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe European postwar arrangements (cont.) The Bretton Wood collapse Financing the Vietnam war by public debt which fueled inflation and created large current account deficits Diverging inflation rates and real appreciation pressures of many currencies (e.g. DM) Suspension of gold convertibility and realignment 1971 (devaluation of 10 %) Collapse 1973 The Snake arrangement Agreeing on stabilizing intra-European bilateral parities No enforcement mechanism: too fragile to survive Diverging inflation rates across European countries

29 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The EMS: Super Snake Complements bilateral exchange rate commitments with a support mechanism Allows for prompt realignments to avoid misalignments Emergence of the DM as the systems anchor But, still inflation divergence and misalignments kept growing speculative attacks alsmost destroyed EMS, IT and UK left, realignments of IR, ESP, PT

30 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe From EMS to EMU (EURO) EMS de facto doomed Convergence to Bundesbank standards means that all other countries lost monetary independence Delors report prepared European Monetary and Financial Union, plan for common currency EMU plan adopted at Maastricht Summit exchange rates were irrevocably frozen, 2002 Euro notes and coins were circulatred

31 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Lessons from history Gold standard Inter- war Bretton Woods EMSEMU Long-lasting misalignments must be avoided Yes (auto- matic) Yes (not pos- sible) Systems need to be built coherently Yes Policy misbehaviour is ruled out (largely)Yes Systems must able to cope with shocks Yes Conductor existingYes

32 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The choice of an exchange rate regime An question and the answer The question: what to do with the exchange rates: fixed or flexible? Viewpoint of an individual country, in contrast to systems Underlines the principles to evaluate the merits of a monetary union The answer: there is no best arrangement A matter of trade-offs

33 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Three basic principles 1Long term: neutrality of money and PPP 2Short term: non-neutrality of money, real and monetary matters interfere (cyclical fluctuations and shocks) 3Interest parity condition

34 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The long-term neutrality of money: theory A B C AD long-term AS short-term AS output gap Inflation rate 0 The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP) AD: Why downward sloping? Inflation erodes purchasing power of money and discourages consumption and investment

35 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The long-term neutrality of money: theory A B C AD long-term AS short-term AS output gap Inflation rate 0 The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP) AS: Why upward sloping? Depression results in lower wages and lower prices of firm, while boom results in higher wage and price pressures

36 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The long-term neutrality of money: theory A B C AD long-term AS short-term AS output gap Inflation rate 0 The AS-AD model output gap (Actual – Trend GDP) Long-run: If prices rise faster than wages, purchasing power declines, creates wage pressure, eventually we move back to long-run wage-price relation at C.

37 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Long term neutrality implication: PPP The real exchange rate Defined as = EP/P* E = nominal exchange rate; P = domestic price; P* = foreign price Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): E offsets changes in P/P* So is constant Many caveats, though: PPP seems to hold in the long run, but not in the short and medium run

38 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Short term non-neutrality of money From AD-AS: the short-run AS schedule So monetary policy matters in the short run Channels of monetary policy The interest rate channel The credit channel The stock market channel The exchange rate channel

39 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary policy in the IS-LM model A C B D IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) foreign level interest rate

40 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary policy in the IS-LM model A C B D IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level interest rate 1. increase in money supply moves LM to LM, 2. interst rates declines initially to B, 3. spending expands and economy moves to C 4. capital flows out until interest rate is back to international level

41 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary policy in the IS-LM model A C B D IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level interest rate Flexible exchange rate: currency depreciates current account improves (IS shifts to IS) output moves eventually to D

42 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary policy in the IS-LM model A C B D IS LM output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level interest rate Fixed exchange rate: Central Bank must intervene in exchange market money supply shrinks until LM curve shifts back from LM to LM and output to A

43 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Monetary policy in the IS-LM model A C B D IS LM output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level interest rate Thus, there is no room for monetary policy with a fixed exchange rate!

44 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model A B C IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level interest rate

45 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model A B C IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level 1.Fiscal policy shifts IS curve to IS. 2.LM stays where it is. 3.Output moves to B. 4.The interest rate rises above foreign level. 5.Capital flows in to restore interest parity interest rate

46 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model A B C IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level Fixed exchange rate: Central Bank intervenes to prevent currency appreciation sells money such that increased money supply shifts LM to LM economy moves eventually to point C interest rate

47 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model A B C IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level Flexible exchange rate: Capital flows in and currency appreciates Current account worsens Demand declines Eventually, IS shifts back to IS and the economy back to A interest rate

48 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fiscal policy in the IS-LM model A B C IS LM Output-gap (Actual-Trend GDP) Foreign level Thus, fiscal policy does only work under fixed exchange rates in small open economies interest rate

49 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Exchange rate regimes and policy effectiveness Monetary policy Fiscal policy Fixed exchange rate IneffectiveEffective Flexible exchange rate EffectiveIneffective

50 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe When does the regime matter? In the short run, changes in E are mirrored in changes in = EP/P*: P and P* are sticky In the long run, is independent of E: P adjusts If P is fully flexible, the long run comes about immediately and the nominal exchange rate does not affect the real economy Put differently, the choice of an exchange rate regime has mostly short run effects because prices and wages are sticky

51 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Whats on the menu? Free floating (e.g. US, Eurozone) Managed floating (e.g. Japan) Target zones (e.g. snake) Crawling pegs (e.g. Poland under transition) Fixed and adjustable (e.g. Bretton Woods +-1%) Currency boards (e.g. Estonia, Lithuania in 1990s) Dollarization/Euroization Monetary union

52 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The choice of an exchange rate regime The monetary policy instrument Can be useful to deal with cyclical disturbances Can be misused (inflation) The fiscal policy instrument Can also deal with cycles but is often politicized Can be misused (public debts, political cycles) Exchange rate stability Freely floating exchange rates move too much Fixed exchange rates eventually become misaligned

53 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The old debate: fixed vs. float The case for flexible rates With sticky prices, need exchange rate flexibility to deal with shocks Remove the exchange rate from politicization Monetary policy is too useful to be jettisoned The case for fixed rates Flexible rates move too much (financial markets are often hectic) Exchange rate volatility: a source of uncertainty A way of disciplining monetary policy In presence of shocks, always possible to realign

54 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The new debate: the two-corners solution Only pure floats or hard pegs are robust Intermediate arrangements (soft pegs) invite government manipulations, over or undervaluations and speculative attacks Pure floats remove the exchange rate from the policy domain Hard pegs are unassailable (well, until Argentinas currency board collapsed…) In line with theory Soft pegs are half-hearted monetary policy commitments, so they ultimately fail

55 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The two-corners solution and the real world Fear of floating Many countries officially float but in fact intervene quite a bit Fear of fixing Many countries declare a peg but let the exchange rate move out of official bounds

56 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Fear of floating

57 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe The two-corners solution and the real world Fear of floating is deeply ingrained in many European countries Fear of fixing partly explains the disenchantment with the EMS and some reluctance towards monetary union

58 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration A Monetary History of Europe Conclusions A menu hard to pick from: trade-offs are everywhere All of this takes the view from a single country Systems involve many countries and rest on agreed upon rules, including mutual support Since the end of Bretton Woods, there is no world monetary system This leaves room for regional monetary systems. Enters Europes experience

59 Prof. Dr. Herbert Brücker Lehrstuhl für Volkswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Integration Europäischer Arbeitsmärkte Universität Bamberg | | Theory and Politics of European Integration Optimal Currency Areas Next lecture European Monetary Union (EMU) European Growth and Stability Pact Reading: Baldwin/Wyplosz (2009), Chs


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