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Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Copyright © 2011 Standard.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Copyright © 2011 Standard."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Copyright © 2011 Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Rolle und Verantwortung von Ratingagenturen in globalisierten Finanzmärkten Torsten Hinrichs Mai 2012

2 2. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. S&P Ratings: Ein global einheitlicher Maßstab für Bonität 150 Jahre Erfahrung und Präsenz in 24 Ländern. In Europa (EMEA) seit 1984 mit Büros in London, Frankfurt, Paris, Madrid, Stockholm, Mailand, Moskau, Dubai, Tel Aviv, Istanbul und Johannesburg. Über 1,400 Ratinganalysten weltweit, davon über 500 in Europa Global über Ratings in über 100 Ländern

3 3. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Emittenten-Rating: Relatives Maß für Kreditrisiko Rangreihung bezüglich der Bonität Zukunftsgerichtete Meinung zur Kreditwürdigkeit von Emittenten oder Anleihen Höhere Ratings drücken unsere Erwartung nach geringeren Ausfallquoten aus Die Verwendung von einheitlichen Stressszenarien dient der Kalibrierung der Ratings und ermöglicht die Vergleichbarkeit über verschiedene Sektoren und Wirtschaftszyklen hinweg Ratings sind kein absolutes Maß für Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit Beobachtete Ausfallraten steigen oder fallen in verändertem wirtschaftlichen Umfeld Jeder Konjunkturzyklus ist einzigartig und führt zu unterschiedlichen Ausfallraten in verschiedenen Sektoren oder Regionen Beobachtete langfristige Ausfallhäufigkeiten beeinflussen Rating-Kriterien und Analyse S&P Ratings können hauptsächlich als relative Rankings von Emittenten oder Anleihen bezüglich ihrer Kreditqualität genutzt werden; Ratings sind kein absolutes Maß für Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit

4 4. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Was ist ein Rating und was ist es nicht? Standard & Poors Ratings drücken unsere Meinung zur Fähigkeit oder Bereitschaft eines Schuldners aus, seinen Zahlungsverpflichtungen vollständig und pünktlich nachzukommen. RATINGS SIND NICHT: Ratings sind kein Audit Ratinganalysten strukturieren keine Wertpapiere und sind nicht beratend tätig Ratings treffen keine Aussage zur erwarteten oder möglichen Preisentwicklung eines Bonds Ratings kommentieren ebenfalls nicht: -ob Investoren kaufen, verkaufen oder halten sollten -ob einzelne Wertpapiere geeignete Anlagen für bestimmte Investoren (-gruppen) darstellen und deren Risikoappetit entsprechen -ob die zu erwartende Rendite eine angemessene Entschädigung für das Risiko darstellt -ob und inwieweit andere Risikofaktoren außerhalb des Kreditrisikos den Preis des Wertpapiers beeinflussen können (z. B. Liquidität, Volatilität)

5 5. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Inverse Korrelation zwischen Rating Kategorie und Defaults Source: Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2010 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions Table Mar-2011Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2010 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions

6 6. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Wechsel der Ratingkategorien (migration) nach Region (%) Investment-grade rated issuers - globally as well as in the U.S. and Europe - historically have tended to exhibit greater credit stability as measured by the frequency of rating transition. Higher ratings have been consistently more stable than lower ratings. Source: Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2010 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions, Table Mar-2011Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2010 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions Average One-Year Corporate Transition Rates ( ) (%) From/toAAAAAABBBBBBCCC/CDNR U.S. AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C Europe AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC/C

7 7. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Average Time To Default From Original Rating, 1981 to 2010 Durchschnittliche Dauer bis zum Default Source: Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income Research.

8 8. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Verantwortung in globalen Märkten CRA Transparenz (Annahmen, Methoden, Prozesse) Analytische Unabhängigkeit Governance und Compliance Aktualität Vergleichbarkeit über Anlageklassen und Kontinente Globale Kriterien – lokale Anwendung Track-Record Qualität und Kontinuität der Analysten Training und Weiterbildung Systeminfrastruktur Einheitliche regulatorische Standards Meinungsfreiheit

9 9. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Transparenz ist bei S&P durch 2 Mausklicks zu erreichen! 1x

10 10. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Transparenz ist bei S&P durch 2 Mausklicks zu erreichen! 2x

11 11. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Unternehmensratings

12 12. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Transparenter analytischer Prozess

13 13. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. S&P Risikofaktoren bei Unternehmensratings RATING Finanz- risiken Rechnungslegung Governance (Unternehmensführung), Risikotoleranz, Finanzstrategie Cash Flow Kapitalstruktur Liquidität Geschäfts- risiken Länderrisiko Branchenmerkmale Marktposition Profitabilität / Vergleichsgruppe Management & Strategie

14 14. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Relative Gewichtung Investment Grade (AAA bis BBB-) Non-investment grade (High yield; BB+ und niedriger) Geschäfts- und Finanzrisiken werden typischerweise ausgewogen gewichtet Finanzrisiken werden typischerweise schwerer gewichtet und sind am unteren Ende des Ratingskala das entscheidende Kriterium Zusammensetzung der Geschäfts- und Finanzrisiken:

15 15. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Indikative Finanzrisiko-Kennzahl für Unternehmen Source: Standard & Poors Criteria / Methodology: Business Risk / Financial Risk Matrix Expanded

16 16. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Gewichtung der Business- and Finanzrisiken für finales Rating Source: Standard & Poors Criteria / Methodology: Business Risk / Financial Risk Matrix Expanded

17 17. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Länderratings

18 18. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Sovereign Rating Framework Source: Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Chart 1 June 30th 2011

19 19. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Bestimmung des indikativen Rating-Levels bei den Länderratings Source: Sovereign Government Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Table 2, June 30th 2011

20 20. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. S&P Links Understanding Ratings: Bank Ratings Framework: European Sovereign Ratings and Related Material Default Studies, Credit & Economic Trends: CreditMatters TV:

21 21. Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of Standard & Poors. Copyright © 2011 by Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC (S&P), a subsidiary of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, model, software or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of S&P. The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes. S&P, its affiliates, and any third-party providers, as well as their directors, officers, shareholders, employees or agents (collectively S&P Parties) do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or availability of the Content. S&P Parties are not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause, for the results obtained from the use of the Content, or for the security or maintenance of any data input by the user. The Content is provided on an as is basis. S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENTS FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. In no event shall S&P Parties be liable to any party for any direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including, without limitation, lost income or lost profits and opportunity costs) in connection with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages. Credit-related analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, hold, or sell any securities or to make any investment decisions. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. S&Ps opinions and analyses do not address the suitability of any security. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor. While S&P has obtained information from sources it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. S&P keeps certain activities of its business units separate from each other in order to preserve the independence and objectivity of their respective activities. As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain non–public information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P may receive compensation for its ratings and certain credit-related analyses, normally from issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, (free of charge), and and (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at STANDARD & POORS, S&P, GLOBAL CREDIT PORTAL and RATINGSDIRECT are registered trademarks of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC.


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