2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20091 von 14 - Adaptation.

Präsentation zum Thema: "2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20091 von 14 - Adaptation."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20091 von 14 - Adaptation indicators at member state level Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Kati Mattern Federal Environment Agency Germany

2 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20092 von 14 I Roadmap to Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy 1.German Adaptation Strategy 12/2008: Mandate for National Adaptation Indicators 2.Draft indicator set, Manual for drawing up an Indicator based report (12/2008-02/2010) 3.Political accepted Indicator based report and proposal for the implementation (10/2009 bis 2/2011) 4.Adaptation Action Plan of the Federal Government (03/2011)…. 5.Establishment of reporting structures 6.…. 7.Closing the gaps of indicators and data (2010-2012) 8.Routine Monitoring und Reporting by Indicators and/or Report of Progress by the Federal Government

3 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20093 von 14 II Requirements 1.Close reference to the objectives and contents of the German Adaptation Strategy 2.Covering the wide range of issues in the 14 sectors of the German Adapation Strategy 3.Highlight the cause-effect-relationships of climate impacts 4.Immediately implementable » Reducing the complexity » Clearly arranged Structuring of adaptation » Reprocucable selection of main focuses

4 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20094 von 14 Anforderungen Bund und Länder Key Federal Sector Impacts Core-Indikatoren Proposed, but not calculatable indicators Regional indicators Core-Indikatoren with data only on state level, L The indicator system offers structured links for the Federal States. States Core-Indikatoren with other data on state level

5 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20095 von 14 III Methodology Step 1: Scope adaptation Step 2: Scope of the fields of indication to be reported ------------------------------------------------------------------ Step 3: attribution of possible indicators Step 4: documentation of indicators

6 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20096 von 14 Step 1: Scope adaptation »DPSIR, but focus on impact and response »Close relationship between impact and response »Give up ambitions for outcome indicators »Clear attribution of indicators to the categories impact, sensitivity

7 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20097 von 14 Step 1: Scoping of adaptation - assumptions Impacts Responses impacts, that will be influenced by adaptation measures 2.Presentation of the effects of implemented adaptation measures Water retention in Wetlands Drying-up of wetlands Impacts, that will not be influenced by adaptation measures 1.Communication of climate impacts Changed behaviour of migrating birds Impact- and the referring response indicators should be presentable in a close relation.

8 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20098 von 14 Indikationsfelder Methodik Sector of the GAS agriculture Sub-aspect Decreas in yield in several kinds of grain due to shortening of the phase of the corn filling Increase of yield of plants with long periods of ripening (corn, Hirse) Increase of damages in the field due to increased frequency and intensity of storms Thematic part of an aspect Change in amount of yield Direct damages to plants Field of indication Impacts on yield Aim of the Structuring: not more than 10 to 12 fields of indication per sector

9 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 20099 von 14 Indikationsfelder Methodik Thematc part of an aspect Field of indication Sector of the GAS Sub-aspects

10 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200910 von 14 Impacts:13 x ( 4 to 13) x 1 = 90 Fields of indication and attribution of indicators Indikationsfelder Methodik 1 core indicator Selection of fields of indication to be reported is necessary! Selection has to be done reproducable by clearly defined criteria. It should be able to continue the system. Responses: 15 x (6 to 11) x 1 = 120 210 Fields of indication sectors

11 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200911 von 14 Step 2: Scope of the fields of indication to be reported Development of criteria for the selection of fields of indication Classification of fields of indication due to criteria, proposal for prioritisation Discussion of the proposal with experts Thematic relevance Data availability (first estimation ) cause-effect-relationship to climate understandability Public concernment Dimension of space Dimension of time Possibility of action Critera - Impacts: Priorisierung Indikationsfelder Political consensus Reference to impact Data availability (first estimation) Measure implemented due to adaptation? Directness of effect responsibility Criteria - responses:

12 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200912 von 14 Ranking/Classification of fields of indication by criteria - impacts

13 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200913 von 14 Interim result of Ranking by consultants Mind. 6,5 points Arbeitsstand Priorisierung Indikationsfelder

14 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200914 von 14 Evaluation of the Ranking by Experts: Step 2: Scope of the fields of indication to be reported Priorisierung Indikationsfelder Workshop in the Federal Environment Agency, Berlin, 22./23. 6. 2009 Experts from Agencies, Science and other organisations aims: gain acceptance for Methodology together define main focuses collect ideas for indicators

15 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200915 von 14 Lessons learned from the Expert Workshop »as regards content: »Impacts: Merging of fields of indication Neutral formulation of fields of indication (without trends) Weighing of selection criteria for impacts Additional criterion: intensity of impact More transparence in the relationship between impacts and responses Responses: Lack of knowledge on implemented adaptation measures results of stakeholder dialogues (e. g. energy, finance, insurances) Criteria for respnses peferred: political consensus, broad implementation in Germany,not only in case studies, close relation to prioritised fields of indication for impacts, good expactation to available data »Procedural: Stripping away the predjudices of the experts in the sectors and in science Stripping away the fears of cuckoo´s eggs Continuing and Improvement of participation process communication »Expected results: Different stages of adaptation in the sectors will lead to differentiated set of indicators in 2011

16 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200916 von 14 Conduction of ideas for indicators (Impacts und Responses) Outlook: Step 3: attribution of possible indicators Pick up existing ideas for indicators /but also critical reflection: change of outflow (I) forest damages (I) Incidence of FSME (I) number of death people due to heat (I) progress in forest conversion (R) Flood protection Investments (R) expansion of information services for floods and low tides (R) Refine ideas for indicators and discuss new ideas: Condtions of composition (thermal layering) in lakes (I) link-up of local networks in the drinking water supply (networks of waterworks) (R) Structure of Energy supply (development of redundances) (R) cooling elements in the landscape (R)

17 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200917 von 14 Message from one member state »methodological consistency »Effective reporting structures

18 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200918 von 14 Thank you! www.anpassung.net kompass@uba.de

19 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200919 von 14 Raw data set 1 Raw data set 2 Raw data set 3 Raw data set 4 Tiered System of documentation Dokumentation Indicator Factsheet Documentation of Indicator A Indicator calculated from: Parameter 1 Parameter 2 Parameter 3 Indicator Factsheet Indicator B Indicator calculated from: Parameter 3 Parameter 4 Documentation of Data Factsheet Documentation of Parameter 1 and the related data sources Data Factsheet Documentation of Parameter 2 and the related data sources Documentation of Parameter 3 and the related data sources Documentation of Parameter 4 and the related data sources Outlook: Step 4: Documentation of the indicators

20 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200920 von 14 Anforderungen Szenarische Aussagen und Prognosen eines Berichts müssen im Folge- bericht durch konkrete beobachtete / gemessene Daten belegt oder widerlegt werden. Vergangenheit und Zukunft

21 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200921 von 14 Welche Entwicklungen werden heute vorhergesagt? Werden diese Trends quantifiziert? Unterliegen die Ausgangsdaten der Modelle einer systematischen und langfristigen Beobachtung? Welche Daten bräuchten wir, um für die Zukunft modellierte Entwicklungen konkret nachvollziehen zu können? Anforderungen Vergangenheit und Zukunft Zum Beispiel: Modellierung zur Verän- derung inländischer touristischer Ankünfte in Deutschland infolge von Klimaveränderungen (Hamburg Tourism Model)

22 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200922 von 14 Risiks, Sensitivities, Vulnerability Anforderungen Vergangenheit und Zukunft Isoard et al. zit. in EEA 2008

23 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200923 von 14 Empfindlichkeit und Verletzlichkeit Anforderungen Vergangenheit und Zukunft Empfindlichkeit: Ist die aktuell anzutreffende Konstellation geeignet, im Falle des Eintreffens der vorhergesagten Klimaveränderung bestimmte Wirkungen (potential impacts) hervorzurufen? Zum Beispiel: Empfindlichkeit von Wäldern gegenüber flächenhafter Schädigung oder Absterben durch hohe Anteile stand- ortsfremder Fichten in heute bereits warm-trockenen Regionen

24 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200924 von 14 Drivers Lifestyle demands Activities, landuse pattern Pressures Emissio- ns of GHG State GHG in the Atmo- sphere Climate change Impacts Impacts on Water balance, Water management Impacts on human health Impacts on agriculture 14 sectors of the GAS [...] Measures for the maintenance of sinks Measures for the protection of endangered systems, for the development of potentials Mitigation measures Recovery Measures Responses MitigationAdaptation Positionierung

25 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200925 von 14 Anforderungen Maßnahmen: process und outcome Durchgeführte Impfkampagnen FSME Impfrate FSME Neufassung landwirtschaftlicher Anbauempfehlungen Anbau hitze- und trockenheitsresisten- ter Kulturen Maßnahmen werden durchgeführt Process-based indicators Investitionen in Biotopverbund- maßnahmen Anzahl von Querungshilfen Inzidenzrate FSME Höhe des landwirtschaftlichen Ertrags Populationsgröße von Amphibienarten Auswirkungen verändern sich. Impacts Maßnahmen haben beabsich- tigte Wirkung Outcome- oriented indicators durch Impfkampagne reduzierte FSME-Inzidenz Erhöhung der landwirtschaftlichen Erträge durch den vermehrten Anbau angepasster Kulturen und Sorten Zunahme der Populationsgrößen von Amphibien- arten durch erhöhte Anzahl von Querungshilfen Ebenen der Indikation

26 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200926 von 14 Anforderungen Ausbreitung allergener Pflanzen, veränderte Blühzeiten allergener Pflanzen Zunahme der Präva- lenz von Allergien und Atopien Differenzierung von Pollenwarn- diensten Hohe Fichtenanteile im Klimabereich warm-trocken Zunahme flächen- hafter Waldschäden Waldumbau- maßnahmen Durchseuchungsraten von Zecken mit FSME- Viren Prävalenz / Inzidenz von FSME Impfkampagnen, Impfrate RisikoImpactsResponses Ebenen der Indikation

27 2nd Experts workshop on Climate Change Adaptation Indicators Indicators for the German Adaptation Strategy Copenhagen, 3. 7. 200927 von 14 Reproducable Scoping of the important impacts and responses for all sectors (1) Scope adaptation Strukturierung Prioritisation is carried out at the level of fields of indication! Sub-aspectsThematic part of an aspect Fields of indication Sectors of the GAS Eutrophication Impacts on sediment balance and structure Chemical state of inland waters Aim of the Structuring: not more than 10 to 12 fields of indication per sector