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The Xiamen Environmental Protests. An Empirical Investigation of Successful Civil Unrest under an Authoritarian Regime Andreas Diekmann and Zhijia Zhou.

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Präsentation zum Thema: "The Xiamen Environmental Protests. An Empirical Investigation of Successful Civil Unrest under an Authoritarian Regime Andreas Diekmann and Zhijia Zhou."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 The Xiamen Environmental Protests. An Empirical Investigation of Successful Civil Unrest under an Authoritarian Regime Andreas Diekmann and Zhijia Zhou ETH Zurich and Xiamen University Xiamen, „China‘s Cleanest City“ Xiamen City and Gulangyu island, Foto: Diekmann 16th Social Dilemma Conference, Hong Kong, June 22-25

2 Steel mills in Guandong province, Guardian, Beijing, 2005 wikimedia commons ►SEPA (State environmental protection agency, China): 400‘000 premature deaths per year due to air pollution ►Taiwanese investor planned to build a large paraxylene (PX) plant in Haicang district of Xiamen ► Anti PX protests were largest protests in China since Tiananmen massacre in 1989.

3 Xiamen Protests – Activities for a collective good SEPA and „National Development and Reform commission“ agree to PX project Local government and party elite strongly support the project. March 2007: Zhao Yufen, Professor of Chemistry at Xiamen University and member of the „Chinese People Political Consultation Conference“ (CPPCC) submitted a critical comment about the PX project. 105 members of the CPPCC signed the comment. Journalist Lian Yue published several online-article about the plant. Local media ignore the criticism. A SMS warning of the PX project was disseminated to thousands of Xiamen citizen. June 1st and 2nd, 2007, demonstrations in Xiamen with 10‘000 to more than 20‘000 participants. Protests were peaceful and in the end successfull (at least for Xiamen citizen). Zhao Yufen

4 Zhao Dagong, THE XIAMEN DEMONSTRATIONS AND GROWING CIVIL CONSCIOUSNESS, China rights Forum 3/2007 „Before the demonstration,more than one million Xiamen citizens sent out cell-phone text messages opposing the PX chemical factory project. All contained the same warning:“ “Taiwanese businessman Chen Yuhao’s Xianglu Group has invested in a joint venture project to build a chemical factory to manufacture paraxylene (PX) in Haicang District.Making this deadly poison [here] would be like dropping an atomic bomb on Xiamen Island. It wouldmean that in the future, the people of Xiamen would live with leukemia and deformed children.”

5 BLOGS Xiamen demonstration today - live reporting on blogs and video sites Posted by Jeremy Goldkorn on Friday, June 1, 2007 at 11:33 AM Xiamen demonstration today - live reporting on blogs and video sites g/1137db5ccf3.jpg Chinese media, advertising, and urban life Xiamen, June 1st, 2007 Problem of the political system in China: The lack of institutions to regulate political and citizens‘ conflicts „bottom up“.

6 “Some forms of protests are legal such as the submission of petitions to authorities, but many kinds of civil unrest, for example demonstrations in the streets or peasant revolts, are illegal by Chinese laws and participants often risk serious punishment. In the decade 1994 to 2004, the years before the Xiamen protests, the annual number of “mass incidents” involving 100 and more protesters has increased; according to the Chinese Ministry of Public Security from 10’000 to 74’000.” (AD and ZZ)

7 Wang, Science, 2010 Protest of the middle class?

8 Driving Forces New technologies and the rapid dissemination of information Middle class - Basis of protest? Impact of social networks Perceived environmental burden of the PX project (prevention is a public good) Perceived impact of protest on the prevention of the PX plant Directly concerned citizens: Apartment in Haicang Citizens who have no opportunity to move („Exit“ versus „Voice“) Directly concerned citizens: Apartment in Haicang Heterogeneity and the „Theory of Critical Mass“ (Oliver et al. 1985)

9 Oliver et al. 1985, A Theory of the Critical Mass, American Journal of Sociology 91.

10 Empirical investigation with a sample of the Xiamen population Socio-demografic characteristics (Age, education, occupation, income, place of residence etc.) Environmental concern Information about PX Information channels and social networks Participation in various kinds of protest Sample of about 900 respondents in three Xiamen districts

11 Sampling Districts ► Blocks ► Communities ►Families Three Xiamen districts: two districts (Siming und Huli) on Xiamen island, one district on the mainland (Haicang) Selection of 5 of 10 blocks in Siming, 3 of 5 blocks in Huli, 2 of 2 blocks in Haicang Selection of 2 communities of each block in Siming, 3 in Huli and one in Haicang. Interviews with 50 families in a community. ► N ca. 900

12 The protest scale (sum of items excluding items 1 and 4) has a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.83 (mean = 1.24, SD 1.95, N = 871). Principal component analysis yields a one factor solution with eigenvalue 3.76 and 47% explained variance. Protest Scale

13 Regression analysis with protest behavior as dependent variable Non-linear

14 Summary Middle class? Not only middle class occupations but almost all strata of Xiamen society were active in the protest. Students did not participate more than other citizens: Citizen protest but not a student protest! Not surprisingly, concerned people in Haicang had a high tendency to protest. Citizens with an exit option had a higher protest intensity than immobile citizen! No signifant impact of network size, only a slight tendency. Interestingly, a tendency that the communist youth had a higher protest intensity.

15 Campus Xiamen University The End – But not the end of environmental protests!

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17 Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) NModel 5Model 6Model 7 Constant 2.02 (3.98)*1.87 (3.54)*1.74 (3.35)* Gender (women = 1) (-1.36)-0.15 (-0.99)-0.21 (-1.41) Age (-2.07)*-0.02 (-1.84)-0.02 (-1.67) Education 1 : Lower middle chool (-1.38)-0.48 (-1.17)-0.50 (-1.24) Education: Upper middle school (-1.09)-0.40 (-0.97)-0.43 (-1.10) Education: Uni. of applied sciences (-0.86)-0.27 (-0.61)-0.35 (-0.82) Education: University (-1.62)-0.55 (-1.23)-0.63 (-1.45) Occupation 2 : in responsible position in state, party or business company (1.10)0.44 (1.24)0.46 (1.32) Occupation: technical personnel (2.65)*0.49 (2.12)*0.60 (2.65)* Occupation: member of staff without leading function (3.56)*0.92 (3.10)*1.03 (3.57)* Occupation: working in agriculture (1.55)0.72 (1.48)0.74 (1.58) Occupation: employees in production and transport (0.81)0.22 (0.78)0.22 (0.81) Occupation: member of the army (-1.10)-0.81 (-1.27)-0.50 (-0.79) Occupation: pupil or student (-0.49)-0.19 (-0.61)-0.20 (-0.64) Occupation: unemployed person (1.84)0.96 (2.25)*0.73 (1.77) Occupation: retired person (0.91)0.35 (0.69)0.38 (0.77) Occupation: others (-0.36)0.15 (0.36)-0.20 (-0.50) Leading Position (1.21)0.24 (0.95)0.27 (1.12) Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) (7.45)* 0.10 (7.56)* log 10 of annual Income (4.01)* Has children (-0.79)-0.15 (-0.69)-0.05 (-0.23) Years of residence in Xiamen (-0.41) (-0.49) (-0.37) Member of Communist Party (-1.28) Member of Communist Youth Organization (1.95) t-values in parentheses Adj. R 2 = 0.10Adj. R 2 = 0.05Adj. R 2 = reference group = Basic schooling 2 reference group = personnel in sales and services

18 NMinimumMaximum Mean (Std. Dev.) Gender Age (12.2) Education: Basic schooling 2 (reference group) Education: Lower middle chool Education: Upper middle school Education: University of applied sciences Education: University Occupation: in responsible position in state, party or business company Occupation: technical personnel Occupation: member of staff without leading function Occupation: personnel in sales and services 2 (reference group) Occupation: working in agriculture Occupation: employees in production and transport Occupation: member of the army Occupation: pupil or student Occupation: unemployed person Occupation: retired person Occupation: others Leading Position 2, Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) (5.71) Has children Years of residence in Xiamen (13.8) Member of Communist Party Member of Communist Youth Organization No Party Member = men, 1 = women 2 0 = no, 1 = yes 3 head of department, team leader etc.

19 NMinimumMaximum Mean (Std. Dev.) Environmental consciousness (4.07) Knowledge concerning PX-Project (3.48) Expected damage caused by PX-Project (2.21) Benefits of PX-Project expected Strong impact of protest expected Weak impact of protest expected No impact of protest expected Time resource (1.14) Owner of apartment in Haicang Exit opportunity 4, Network size (0.42) Got informed on PX-Project first via internet sum of 8 itemscores (Likertscales: from 1=completely disagree to 5=completely agree) 2 sum of 10 itemscores (for each item: 0=no, I don’t know, 1=yes, I know) 3 sum of 8 itemscores (list of 8 possible damages, 0=not expected to occur, if PX-Project were realized, 1=expected to occur) 4 0 = no, 1 = yes 5 average free time being at respondents disposal every day besides hours of work: 1=less than 1 h, 2=1-2h, 3=3-5h, 4=5-8h, 5=more than 8h 6 Would it be possible for you to leave Xiamen if the PX-Project were realized? 7 number of persons being felicitated by the respondent on the occasion of Chinese New Year.

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21 Concerning the PX project, in which activities did you participate? (n = 869) Mean (SD) Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach’s Alpha if Item Deleted Giving attention to relevant newspaper articles0.73 (0.47) Commenting and giving opinions in Internet discussions groups 0.22 (0.42) Dissemination of information via cell phone or (0.39) Face-to-face discussion with other people0.62 (0.49) Encourage other people to participate in the protests 0.21 (0.41) Sending a letter, an or making a phone call to authorities 0.13 (0.34) Contacting the media0.10 (0.29) Contacting environmental NGOs0.16 (0.37) Protesting directly at the organizations or by the persons who are responsible for the PX project 0.13 (0.33) Participation in the demonstrations0.11 (0.31)

22 Probleme staatlicher Steuerung Beijing, Zentralregierung: Umweltziele, Projekte, SEPA, NGOs Dezentralisierung, relative Autonomie der Provinzregierungen und Kommunen Karriere lokaler Funktionäre hängt hauptsächlich von wirtschaftlichem Wachstum und Stabilität ab. Verflechtung lokale Funktionäre und Unternehmen, Korruption, keine unabhängige Rechtsprechung

23 Umweltproteste ► 2005: 1000 Umweltproteste in der VR China pro Woche (51000 im Jahr). (E.C. Economy, The great leap backwards? Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 2007) ►Xiamen, Juni Proteste gegen den Bau einer PX- Fabrik durch taiwanesischen Investor. ► (Paraxylene ► Polyester), grösste Fabrik weltweit, nahe Stadtzentrum. (Toxisch, kanzerogen, Verdacht auf fetale Missbildungen u.a.) ► Sollte 80 Mrd. Yuan (ca. 8 Mrd. €) zum GNP von Xiamen beitragen (25 % des GNP)

24 Vertreter von Medien aus anderen Provinzen berichten „So reiste Bei Feng, ein Reporter aus der Nachbarprovinz Guang Zhou (Kanton) nach Xiamen, um die Vorfälle dort zu dokumentieren. Als die Demonstranten Probleme bekamen, weil der örtliche Netzwerkbetreiber ihre sms blockierte, schickte er seine Berichte via Mobiltelefon nach Guangzhou – durch das Netz des dortigen Anbieters. Ein Kollege leitete die Berichte weiter und Internetnutzer in ganz China konnten die Ereignisse in Xiamen live verfolgen. Viele traditionelle Medien griffen die Geschichte auf. Etliche Magazine und Tageszeitungen veröffentlichten Hintergrundartikel mit vorsichtig formulierten, aber eindeutigen Kommentaren. Sogar Chinas zentrales Staatsfernsehen cctv berichtete kritisch. Die lokale Presse in Xiamen musste allerdings schweigen.“ Zhu Yi und Katrin Altmaier, Wie Chinas Medien für mehr Demokratie trommeln. Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung, 2/2007.

25 Neue Informationskanäle Videos auf Youtube Behörden veranlassen Filterung von SMS, Löschung von SMS mit Stichwort „PX“ 500 Fotos der Xiamen Demonstrationen in Flickr, Sperre durch Behörden (Bericht Spiegel-Online) Wichtige Rolle von SMS, Internet-Blogs, real-time reports etc. als alternative Medien.

26 Wang, Science, 2010 Die Mittelklasse engagiert sich?

27 Protestbewegungen 1.Kämpfen für kollektive Güter 2.Kollektivgutproblematik: Eigeninteressierte Akteure wählen „Trittbrettfahren“ (wie im Kollektivgutspiel) 3.Warum gibt es dann überhaupt Protestbewegungen? 4.Selektive Anreize für Beteiligung 5.Weitere Motive: Emotionale Gründe, Loyalität mit anderen Protestierenden, Überschätzung Einfluss eigenen Beitrags 6.„Kritische Masse“. 7.Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass sich eine kritische Masse bildet, wird durch „Heterogenität“ unterstützt (Heterogenität von Interessen. Wer stark am kollektiven Gut interessiert ist, wird beginnen, andere mitziehen und eventuell eine kritische Masse aufbauen). Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (1, 2, 3, 4) Oliver et al. 1985, A Theory of Critical Mass, American Journal of Sociology.

28 Messung von Einstellungen Messung von Umweltbewusstsein: Skala mit neun „Items“ (Aussagen) Beispiel: „Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu.“ Stimme überhaupt nicht zu/stimme nicht zu/teils-teils/stimme zu/stimme stark zu (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) UB = Summe der Werte für die einzelnen Items (Itemscore) Mit einer Auswahl von Items, die die zu Grunde liegende Dimension widerspiegeln (das kann man testen mit Itemanalysen oder der Faktorenanalyse. Weniger brauchbare Items werden dann herausgefiltert.) Verschiedene Protestaktivitäten: Brief an Behörden, an die Presse wenden, an Demonstration teilnehmen usw. PROTEST = Summe der angegebenen Protestaktivitäten Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu.

29 Geben Sie bitte Ihre Meinung zu den folgenden Aussagen an: (n = 894) Mittelwert (Standard- abweichung) Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach’s Alpha if Item deleted Es beunruhigt mich, wenn ich daran denke, unter welchen Umweltverhältnissen unsere Kinder und Enkelkinder wahrscheinlich leben müssen (0.89) Wenn wir so weitermachen wie bisher, steuern wir auf eine Umweltkatastrophe zu (0.89) Wenn ich Zeitungsberichte über Umweltprobleme lese oder entsprechende Fernsehsendungen sehe, bin ich oft empört und wütend (0.83) Es gibt Grenzen des Wachstums, die wir schon überschritten haben oder sehr bald erreichen werden (1.14) Derzeit ist es immer noch so, dass sich der grösste Teil der Bevölkerung wenig umweltbewusst verhält (0.97) Nach meiner Einschätzung wird das Umweltproblem in seiner Bedeutung von vielen Umweltschützern stark übertrieben (1.21) Es ist noch immer so, dass die Politiker viel zu wenig für den Umweltschutz tun (1.07) Zugunsten der Umwelt sollten wir alle bereit sein, unseren derzeitigen Lebensstandard einzuschränken (1.25) Umweltschutzmassnahmen sollten auch dann durchgesetzt werden, wenn dadurch Arbeitsplätze verloren gehen (1.14)

30 An welchen der folgenden Aktivitäten im Zusammenhang mit dem PX-Projekt haben Sie teilgenommen? (n = 869) Mittelwert (Standard- abweichung) Corrected Item-Total Correlation Cronbach’s Alpha if Item deleted Beachtung relevanter Pressenachrichten0.73 (0.47) Abgabe von Kommentaren und Meinungen in Diskussionsforen per Internet 0.22 (0.42) Verbreitung von Informationen per Handy oder (0.39) Face-to-face-Diskussionen mit anderen0.62 (0.49) Andere zu mehr Beteiligung ermutigen0.21 (0.41) Sich an die Behörden per Brief (einschliesslich ) oder Telefon wenden 0.13 (0.34) Sich an die Presse Wenden0.10 (0.29) Sich an NGOs im Umweltschutzbereich wenden 0.16 (0.37) Direkt bei den Organisationen oder Personen, die für die Umweltverschmutzung verantwortlich sind, Protest erheben 0.13 (0.33) Beteiligung an den Demonstrationen0.11 (0.31) Protestaktivitäten

31 NMinimumMaximum Mean (Std. Dev.) Gender Age (12.2) Education: Basic schooling 2 (reference group) Education: Lower middle chool Education: Upper middle school Education: University of applied sciences Education: University Occupation: in responsible position in state, party or business company Occupation: technical personnel Occupation: member of staff without leading function Occupation: personnel in sales and services 2 (reference group) Occupation: working in agriculture Occupation: employees in production and transport Occupation: member of the army Occupation: pupil or student Occupation: unemployed person Occupation: retired person Occupation: others Leading Position 2, Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) (5.71) Has children Years of residence in Xiamen (13.8) Member of Communist Party Member of Communist Youth Organization No Party Member = men, 1 = women 2 0 = no, 1 = yes 3 head of department, team leader etc.

32 NMinimumMaximum Mean (Std. Dev.) Environmental consciousness (4.07) Knowledge concerning PX-Project (3.48) Expected damage caused by PX-Project (2.21) Benefits of PX-Project expected Strong impact of protest expected Weak impact of protest expected No impact of protest expected Time resource (1.14) Owner of apartment in Haicang Exit opportunity 4, Network size (0.42) Got informed on PX-Project first via internet sum of 8 itemscores (Likertscales: from 1=completely disagree to 5=completely agree) 2 sum of 10 itemscores (for each item: 0=no, I don’t know, 1=yes, I know) 3 sum of 8 itemscores (list of 8 possible damages, 0=not expected to occur, if PX-Project were realized, 1=expected to occur) 4 0 = no, 1 = yes 5 average free time being at respondents disposal every day besides hours of work: 1=less than 1 h, 2=1-2h, 3=3-5h, 4=5-8h, 5=more than 8h 6 Would it be possible for you to leave Xiamen if the PX-Project were realized? 7 number of persons being felicitated by the respondent on the occasion of Chinese New Year.

33 PROTEST UB (Umwelt- Bewusstsein) PROTEST: Skala von 0 bis 8, UB: Skala von 8 bis 40

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35 Spezifikation einer einfachen linearen Schätzgleichung PROTEST = b 0 + b 1 Einkommen + b 2 Umweltbewusstsein + b 3 Informiertheit über PX + b 4 Betroffenheit (Wohnung in Haicang) + b 5 Wahrnehmung der Schäden durch PX + b 6 Informationskanal Internet + b 7 Exit + b 8 Grösse des sozialen Netzwerks + … + ε (normalverteilter Fehlerterm)

36 Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) NModel 5Model 6Model 7 Constant 2.02 (3.98)*1.87 (3.54)*1.74 (3.35)* Gender (women = 1) (-1.36)-0.15 (-0.99)-0.21 (-1.41) Age (-2.07)*-0.02 (-1.84)-0.02 (-1.67) Education 1 : Lower middle chool (-1.38)-0.48 (-1.17)-0.50 (-1.24) Education: Upper middle school (-1.09)-0.40 (-0.97)-0.43 (-1.10) Education: Uni. of applied sciences (-0.86)-0.27 (-0.61)-0.35 (-0.82) Education: University (-1.62)-0.55 (-1.23)-0.63 (-1.45) Occupation 2 : in responsible position in state, party or business company (1.10)0.44 (1.24)0.46 (1.32) Occupation: technical personnel (2.65)*0.49 (2.12)*0.60 (2.65)* Occupation: member of staff without leading function (3.56)*0.92 (3.10)*1.03 (3.57)* Occupation: working in agriculture (1.55)0.72 (1.48)0.74 (1.58) Occupation: employees in production and transport (0.81)0.22 (0.78)0.22 (0.81) Occupation: member of the army (-1.10)-0.81 (-1.27)-0.50 (-0.79) Occupation: pupil or student (-0.49)-0.19 (-0.61)-0.20 (-0.64) Occupation: unemployed person (1.84)0.96 (2.25)*0.73 (1.77) Occupation: retired person (0.91)0.35 (0.69)0.38 (0.77) Occupation: others (-0.36)0.15 (0.36)-0.20 (-0.50) Leading Position (1.21)0.24 (0.95)0.27 (1.12) Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) (7.45)* 0.10 (7.56)* log 10 of annual Income (4.01)* Has children (-0.79)-0.15 (-0.69)-0.05 (-0.23) Years of residence in Xiamen (-0.41) (-0.49) (-0.37) Member of Communist Party (-1.28) Member of Communist Youth Organization (1.95) t-values in parentheses Adj. R 2 = 0.10Adj. R 2 = 0.05Adj. R 2 = reference group = Basic schooling 2 reference group = personnel in sales and services

37 Regression with PROTEST (0 – 8) NModel 1Model 2Model 3 Model 4 Constant 0.35 (0.51)0.25 (0.35)-0.52 (-0.71)-0.51 (-0.69) Gender (women = 1) (-0.83)-0.11 (-0.72)-0.13 (-0.88)-0.13 (-0.86) Age (-2.59)*-0.02 (-2.58)*-0.02 (-2.35)*-0.02 (-2.26)* Annual Income (in 10’000 Yuan) (5.29)*0.08 (5.43)*0.08 (5.66)*0.08 (5.61)* Member of Communist Party (-2.18)*-0.48 (-2.14)*-0.44 (-2.01)*-0.44 (-2.02)* Member of Communist Youth Organisation (2.04)*0.42 (2.11)*0.34 (1.80)0.35 (1.80) Environmental consciousness (1.35)0.03 (1.30)0.02 (1.10)0.02 (1.06) Knowledge concerning PX-Project (6.97)*0.17 (6.95)*0.13 (5.62)*0.13 (5.43)* Expected damage caused by PX- Project (0.49)0.05 (1.08)0.03 (0.71)0.03 (0.70) Benefits of PX-Project expected (-0.60)-0.10 (-0.57)0.11 (0.62) Strong impact of protest expected (0.65)0.49 (1.38)0.43 (1.25)0.44 (1.27) Weak impact of protest expected (-1.22)-0.27 (-1.30)-0.26 (-1.29)-0.26 (-1.27) Interaction: Strong impact of protest  expected damage caused by PX- Project (-1.25)-0.10 (-1.29)-0.10 (-1.30) Time resource (-1.59)-0.10 (-1.48)-0.08 (-1.15)-0.08 (-1.17) Owner of apartment in Haicang (4.30)*0.91 (4.31)* Exit opportunity (3.80)*0.60 (3.79)* Network size (1.68)0.30 (1.64) Information on PX-Project via internet (0.29) t-values in parentheses Adj. R 2 = 0.19 Adj. R 2 = 0.25Adj. R 2 = 0.24

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39 Campus Xiamen University

40 Figure adopted fromYandle et al Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Liu and Diamond, Nature 435: Cost of environmental pollution 8 to 12 percent of GNP (E.C. Economy, The great leap backwards? Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct

41 Wikipedia Tian‘anmen, Foto Diekmann


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