Die Präsentation wird geladen. Bitte warten

Die Präsentation wird geladen. Bitte warten

1 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Universität Bonn, 2. Juli 2009 Klimawandel: Entwicklung – Sicherheit -

Ähnliche Präsentationen


Präsentation zum Thema: "1 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Universität Bonn, 2. Juli 2009 Klimawandel: Entwicklung – Sicherheit -"—  Präsentation transkript:

1 1 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Universität Bonn, 2. Juli 2009 Klimawandel: Entwicklung – Sicherheit - Weltwirtschaft Dirk Messner German Development Institute German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)

2 2 Human security Destabilization of countries and regions New lines of conflicts and tensions globally Geopolitics of climate change Radical Transformation of the Earth System

3 3 Main message Climate change could unite the international community, recognizing climate change as a threat to humankind... If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division in international relations, triggering distributional conflicts over water, land, the management of migration, compensation payments between the countries mainly responible for climate change and those countries most affected by it`s destructive impacts....

4 4 Environmental Conflicts (1980–2005): Causes and intensities

5 5 „Old“ environmenatally driven versus climate driven conflicts Local Limited numer of affected people Multicausal drivers Local distributional conflicts (water, land, forests et al.)... No challenge for international stability and security Local, crossboarder, subregional, global Many people affected Dito Distributional conflicts (local, crossborder, subregional) Overburdened governments, economies, societies: weak states under climate stress Large scale migration Global tensions: who pays the bill? Who is responsible?... International security impacts

6 6 A2 B1 2º2º EU - Limit ?! Szenarien Klimawandel... 5° plus Welt: Radikaler Wandel des Erdsystems! a) Eiszeit – heute, b) Menschheitsexperiment, c) Erdsystem

7 7 Figure SPM.6 Global Warming – regional impacts

8 8 Die CO 2 -Konzentration steigt

9 9 Reduction of GHG – emissions needed until 2050

10 10

11 11 Mitigation as an investment in international stability... Avoiding unmanageable risks in the global earth system! Key actors in the furture: OECD, China/ India

12 12 Dangerous climate change: impacts on societies Three Perspectives

13 13 First Perspective: „Tipping Points“ in the Earth System – Will societies be able to adopt?

14 14 Collapse of the Amazonian Forest: Radical transformations of eco-systems in very little time

15 15 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Second perspective Climate change driven conflict constellations

16 16 Conflict constellation 1: Climate-induced decline in food production- Conflicts on land

17 17 Droughts in the A1B-Scenario IPCC, 2007 Ensemble-Projections

18 18 Soil degradation & desertification (intensity and dynamic)

19 19 Min Temp ºC Source: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

20 20 Precipitation % Change Source: Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences

21 21 Conflict constellation 2: Climate-induced degradation of freshwater resources - conflicts on access to water

22 22 Access to Water (today)

23 23 Processes of desertification towards 2041/2070 (Hadley Centre)

24 24

25 25 Glaciers: Global Mass Balance World Glacier Monitoring Service

26 26 Glaciers in the Himalya: Importance for Water Supply... Many people affected: agriculture/ water UNEP 2007

27 27

28 28 Conflict constellation 3: climate-induced increase in storm and flood desasters - political instability/ economic crisis „New Orleans“

29 29 Messdaten: Hurrikan-Energie korreliert mit Meerestemperatur Beide sind deutlich angestiegen (Emanuel, Nature 2005) Hurrikan-Energie (PDI) Meerestemperatur (August-Oktober) Globale Mitteltemperatur Atlantik Huricans

30 30 Hurricanes: intensities and patterns ( )

31 31 9 cm 88 cm 21 cm 70 cm Tide Gauges Sea level Rise

32 32 Bay of Bengal and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna- Bay

33 33 Conflict constellation 4: environmentally- induced migration

34 34

35 35 Climate Change - conflict constellations in world regions

36 36 Climate change as a multiplier of mechanisms that causes instability and conflicts Weak governance structures favours conflicts... Climate change is affecting many fragile states... and might overburden not yet weak governance systems Low income countries... High probability of violent conflicts: Climate change affects agriculture, water system... Creates economic problems for LDCs... Triggering conflict risks Spillover risks in conflict regions: climate change causes cross- border challenges (water shortages, migration etc.) Climate change aggravates or causes ressource-conflicts: land, water, forests, food etc.

37 37 The third Perspective Climate change impacts translating into international tensions and conflicts

38 38 Vulnerabilty towards climate change - New lines of conflict?

39 39 The third perspective 1: Overstreching the capacities of the global governance system - destabilization Posible increase in the number of weak and fragile states Risks for the global economy (Stern Report) Growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate change and the most affected (polluter pays principle; compensations) Triggering and intensification of migration Climate change undermining basic human rights (access to water, food): the „new human rights debate“.... Legitimacy problems for the OECD (loosing soft power) Limits of classical security policy: Impacts of Tipping Points could be unmanagable

40 40 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN How to avoid dangerous climate change? The transformation towards a low carbon global economy

41 41

42 42 Towards 450 ppmv CO 2 Convergence level: 2 tCO 2 eq/cap

43 43 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN

44 44 Primary Energy – A2r – BL: Business as usual – the 5-6 °C world

45 45 Primary Energy – B1r – BL: The 3-4 °C world “Green business as usual”

46 46 Primary Energy – B1r – 450: Die 2 Grad Welt 4) nationale und globale low carbon roadmaps 5) Lebensstile EmissioEmissio National und international: 1) Emissionshandel – Preis für THG 2) Innovationspolitik 3) Effizienzstandards (Gebäude, Autos,Geräte)

47 47 Mitigation und Adaptation:neue Anforderungen für Entwicklungspolitik Energiekooperation China/ Indien Globaler Wälderschutz (Brasilien, Peru, Indonesien, Kongo) Kooperationen Richtung low carbon global economy Globale Landnutzungssysteme (Ernährung, Bioenergie, GHG-Senken, Biodiversität) Länder- und regionenspezifische Anpassungsstrategien Verbindung MDGs und Anpassung „Anpassung an 3 – 6 Grad Welt“ schwierig Finanzierung Kopenhagen 2009 als Weichenstellung!

48 48 © 2007 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik „It is not important to predict the future, but to be prepared for the future.“ Perikles, BC

49 49 Visión: red trans-europeo de electricidad Vision eines Hochspannungs- Gleichstromnetzes als Rückgrat eines trans-europäischen Stromverbunds und als Ergänzung des konventionellen Quelle: DLR, Dr: F. Trieb

50 50 El potencial de energías rjfcjvlknovables hasta 206


Herunterladen ppt "1 W ISSENSCHAFTLICHER B EIRAT DER B UNDESREGIERUNG G LOBALE U MWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN Universität Bonn, 2. Juli 2009 Klimawandel: Entwicklung – Sicherheit -"

Ähnliche Präsentationen


Google-Anzeigen