Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change CLIM-CAP Training Pilot Module 1: Basic scientific knowledge - Climate change scenarios - "With the support of.

Präsentation zum Thema: "Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change CLIM-CAP Training Pilot Module 1: Basic scientific knowledge - Climate change scenarios - "With the support of."—  Präsentation transkript:

1 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change CLIM-CAP Training Pilot Module 1: Basic scientific knowledge - Climate change scenarios - "With the support of the Lifelong Learning Programme of the European Union"

2 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change The Climate System

3 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Radiation Budget of the Earth shortwave radiation energy profit - warming - evaporation longwave emission greenhouse effect

4 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.” (cit.: IPCC, 2007) Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

5 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Global average radiative forcing Source: IPCC 2007

6 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Observed changes Source: IPCC 2007

7 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Comparison of observed changes in temperature with results simulated by climate models using natural and anthropogenic forcing Source: IPCC 2007

8 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Multi-model global averages of surface warming for the scenarios A2, A1B, B1 Source: IPCC 2007

9 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Projected surface temperature changes for the early and late 21st century for B1 (top), A1B (middle) and A2 (bottom) scenarios Source: IPCC 2007

10 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Relative changes in precipitation winter summer Source: IPCC 2007

11 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change increase of extreme weather events with local damages rainfall increases in higher latitudes and decreases in tropical and subtropical areas 18 cm to 58 cm sea level rise increase of the radiative forcing => increase of temperatures: 1,4°C to 5,8°C continuing melting of glaciers Global Trends of Climate Change

12 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Next slides are national, please find appropriate information for your country

13 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Regionaler Klimawandel Aufgabe: Abschätzung der zukünftig zu erwartenden Ausprägung des Klimawandels für die Region Problem: Globale Simulationsmodelle mit nur grober räumlicher Auflösung, für räumlich differenzierte Aussagen zur Region unzureichend Regionale Klimamodelle werden benötigt: 4 regionale Klimamodelle zur Auswahl Please add your country specific data!

14 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Regionale Klimamodelle in Deutschland Modelltypen Numerische SimulationStatistische Regression ModellCLMREMO 10STAR IIWETTREG AutorDWDMPI-MPIKPIK/CEC VerfahrenNum. Simulation Statist. Regression nicht-hydrostatischhydrostatischtrendbasiertwetterlagenbasiert Räumlich. Auflösung18 x 18 km10 x 10 kmInterpolation Ruhrgebiet 8 x 3 Zellen 10 x 7 ZellenInterpolation Vertikale Differenzierungjanein- / - Zeitraum, von1961195119811961 Zeitraum, bis2100 20602100 Please add your country specific data!

15 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Forecasts : - Warming trend continues: increase in mean annual temperature by about 1-4 Kelvin, increase of hot days in summer Climate Change in Europe

16 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change P.Hupfer, Nat.wiss.Rdsch. 5/04 Frequencies of daily maximum temperatures cold mean hot former climate new climate little change more heat more extreme heat

17 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change change of average annual temperatures (Ruhr district, NRW): 1991-2000 to 2051-2060 IPCC-Scenario A1B (database: LANUV 2008). Different regional climate model results for the Ruhr district, NRW Please add your country specific data!

18 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Vergleich Lufttemperaturen- Jahresmittel 2051-2060 zu 1991-2000 STAR II WETTREGCLM REMO Please add your country specific data!

19 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Vergleich Lufttemperaturen- Sommermaximum (JJA) 2051-2060 zu 1991-2000 STAR II WETTREGCLM REMO Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Please add your country specific data!

20 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Quelle: S. Wurzler, LANUV NRW, 2008 Changes of the number of hot and cold days in Essen until 2050 Please add your country specific data!

21 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Andauer von Hitzewellen: Zeitraum von Tagen mit T-max > 30°C Vergleich: Mittelwerte 1961- 1990, Daten: Mittelwerte 2071-2100 Datengrundlage: Klimastationen Essen und Dortmund; regionales Modell: WETTREG, Szenario A1B, Auswertung mit IDP (Kreienkamp und Spekat, 2008) Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Please add your country specific data!

22 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Forecasts : - Warming trend continues: increase in mean annual temperature by about 1-4 Kelvin, increase of hot days in summer - Increase in precipitation in winter up to 30%, decrease in summer up to 30%,increase in annual total precipitation, especially heavy precipitation events Climate Change in Europe

23 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change change of summer amount of precipitation (in %) (Ruhr district, NRW): 1991-2000 to 2051-2060 IPCC-Scenario A1B (database: LANUV 2008). Different regional climate model results for the Ruhr district, NRW WETTREGSTAR II CLM REMO10 WETTREG STAR II Please add your country specific data!

24 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Vergleich Jahresniederschläge 2051- 2060 zu 1991-2000 STAR II WETTREGCLM REMO Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Please add your country specific data!

25 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Vergleich Sommerniederschläge (JJA) 2051-2060 zu 1991-2000 STAR II WETTREGCLM REMO Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Please add your country specific data!

26 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Vergleich Winterniederschläge 2051- 2060 zu 1991-2000 STAR II WETTREGCLM REMO Ergebnisse der regionalen Szenarien in NRW (jeweils A1B-Emissionsszenario) Please add your country specific data!

27 Basic Scientific Knowledge Climate Change Reasons of investigation: Change of global climate has an effect on quality of life and local conditions in our cities a relevant increase of vulnerability of cities to the impact of climate change is expected in the next decades some characteristics of urban climate have negative effects on the biotic and abiotic urban environment as:- urban heat island - impairment of urban infrastructure by intense rain or dryness this problems will be intensified by climate change !